Ray Pride: How the Tampa Bay Rays have Won

Additionally, hitters such as BJ Upton, Carlos Pena, and Carl Crawford are all having substantially lesser seasons than they did in 2007. While much of this is regarded as regression towards the mean, it should not shock anyone if these hitters have a move successful second half in 2008.

The starting pitching has definitely been a strong point for the Rays this season. Currently, the starting rotation—which included a month sans Kazmir—has the eighth-best ERA in all of baseball. The relievers are even better, sitting at fifth overall. However, one may ask how legitimate the pitching staff is.  

Ranking in the top 10 in strikeouts per nine (K/9), and the top five in strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB), the starters are definitely keeping runners off the bags. The starters are also preventing home runs, owning the league's 10th-lowest slugging percentage against.

Individually, unlike the hitters, where there aren't any true overachievers, the Rays have a few pitchers that could stand to regress slightly. Although as a unit, regression should be very minimal. That is, when one compares the pitchers earned run average (ERA) to fielding independent pitching (FIP), it becomes obvious that the pitchers are not far from exceeding expectations.

For example, while Kazmir's FIP is .59 higher then his ERA, it is not unreasonable that with some luck and strong fielding, he may remain below expectations.

Whereas Kazmir, Matt Garza, and Edwin Jackson are having marginally lucky seasons, James Shields and Andy Sonnanstine are having fairly unlucky seasons. Thus, one can assert that the Rays starting staff should perform at relatively the same rate in the second half of '08 as they performed in the first.

Keep in mind, that the Rays have a youthful squad, with a deep minor-league system. As I mentioned in March, with the depth of this organization, the club can afford to make a couple big-splash moves. At worst, the club will have traded nearly-ready prospects for first-round picks. At best, the club adds some veteran stability and first-round picks.

How about the bullpen?

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