I don’t hate Tim Tebow and I don’t hate the Florida Gators or the SEC. But I want to try and wipe away the gloss and give my scouting report on Tebow as he projects to the next level.
To start, I just don't see Tebow ever being an NFL quarterback and I hope all of the NFL teams aren't that stupid to take him with any early round draft pick.
There I said it.
Honestly, this guy will have a very hard time playing at ANY position in the NFL. I agree he has amazing drive and commitment and always plays his heart out, but sometimes that's just not good enough.
I look at it this way, if Michael Vick more or less struggled in the NFL, how in heck will Tebow ever succeed at QB?
Let's face the facts, Tebow is quite slow and he's not going to ever be a guy who will be a dual threat. In the NFL, getting the ball in shotgun and running straight ahead will not work. He doesn't have the agility or ability to make guys miss to be a Vick or Vince Young.
So, Tebow will be forced to be a pure passer in the NFL. If he was a pure passer in college he's probably not even in the discussion for being drafted. I don't think he has a terrible arm, he has a nice touch on his throws and his arm strength is decent. He makes good decisions and is smart with the ball. Yet, we’ve seen plenty of pure passers who struggle at the next level who were better “throwing” quarterbacks than Tebow.
And those mechanics!
It's like nails on a chalk board watching him take snaps under center. His footwork is terrible, he's not comfortable at all, and then there's the throwing motion which just isn't going to work in the NFL. He'll have one or two passes picked off every single game with that technique.
Maybe someone can help him with his footwork and over time he'll become more comfortable under center. But how many guys have had a complete overhaul of their throwing motion and been successful?
I can't think of anyone, and there's certainly never been someone with such a drastic throwing motion that has corrected it and gone on to a great career.
I know its sort of heresy to knock Tebow, but I just never thought he was that good. He was a perfect fit for Florida and his game was perfect for college.
He'll hit a huge wall in the NFL.
I'm trying to think of what he would have been like had he played somewhere like Indiana, Akron or Tulane. Would he still be the player he is today?
I mean he scored a ton of touchdowns at Florida, but was he really that dynamic?
Let’s give Tebow some credit, because he did put up some great numbers in college. Eighty-three passing touchdowns to only 15 interceptions over his final three seasons in Gainesville is pretty darn impressive.
Still, he played in the right system where he was rarely touched and was surrounded by a plethora of playmaking talent. Tebow averaged 217 yards per game through the air as a full-time starter at Florida, that’s good but not great.
Perhaps you’d argue that Florida didn’t need to throw the ball very much because Tebow was such a threat on the ground and so were his running backs. That is very true.
But I’m not going to get very excited if I’m an NFL scout for a big lumbering quarterback who only averaged 4.4 yards per carry in one of the strongest collegiate offenses in recent memory.
Remove Tebow’s opportunities to carry the ball close to the goal line and score touchdowns (which have to number in the dozens) and what kind of player do we have? I can guarantee you he won’t be able to do that at the next level.
Maybe if he had ripped off an average like Vick or Pat White in the seven to eight yards per carry range this would be a different story. As it is, you can expect that if Tebow ever plays quarterback in the NFL, he’ll be averaging less than three yards per carry.
Is that worth it if you’re a GM?
Maybe Tebow will get a chance to play a different position in the NFL, but I’m still skeptical about his opportunity for success.
Could he play tight end? Maybe twenty years ago he would have made a solid tight end, but with today’s athletic big men who can stretch the field vertically, I don’t think Tebow would be anything other than a second or third string blocker.
His greatest chance for playing time would probably be at fullback, but I have to wonder at what point would Tebow continue to languish in a position of such little importance.
Maybe Tebow will make a good blocker for a running back and catch some passes here and there, but I don’t think that is what he has in mind for an NFL career.
In conclusion, if it were up to me, I wouldn’t draft Tebow until the late rounds and I would probably try him out at a position other than quarterback.
My guess is that he’ll be drafted much higher, get his chance at quarterback someday, but ultimately, I see Tebow out of the NFL within four or five years and off doing bigger and better things in the world.