10 Things the Houston Astros Need To Do To Contend in 2010

The Houston Astros are not favored to win the World Series this year.

They are also not favored to win the National League Pennant...

Or the Central Division.

Really finishing above third place is setting the ceiling high for this year's squad.

So what needs to happen for them to be put in the mix of teams making a run at the World Series?

A lot to put it bluntly.

However, as a not so professional sportswriter, I am required to delve deeper into these matters, so here's what's gotta happen if they want any shot at competitiveness in 2010.

Hunter Pence Needs to Move Into Elite Status

Though last year Hunter Pence was elected to his first all-star game, tied his career high in homers, and set a career high in stolen bases, it still isn't what he is fully capable of (at least we hope not or Houston's offensive future is in trouble.)

His stat line for last year
.282 BA, 25 homers, 72 RBIs, 76 Runs, 14 Stolen Bases.

Not exactly all-star numbers for a full season.

The fact is, he still is an above-average player, and with Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee getting older, we need him to step up as a prominent 5-hole threat in the lineup.

He's never cracked 80 runs scored. He's never cracked 90 RBIs. 14 stolen bases was a career high last year.

All those milestones need to be broken for the Astros to contend.

His stolen base numbers should not be that low, and neither should his stolen base percentage (Career 58% success, whereas he should be closer to 70-75%.)

The home runs aren't as important as his ability to drive in runs.

With the bases loaded last year, he was 0/11 with 3 RBIs, a walk, and 6 strikeouts.

That's half your plate appearances not even putting the ball in play when contact may be all it takes to score a run.

With men on third and less than 2 outs.

3/21, 9 RBIs, 7 strikeouts.

Both are situations where you at least need to make contact, and though he's gotten better at laying off the outside slider low and away, he still is swinging and whiffing when it matters.

Pence needs to be as big a threat, if not bigger than El Caballo and Puma next year to give the Astros a lineup that will frustrate starting pitchers with their pop and patience.

That leads us to our next point...

Sluggers' Situational Hitting Needs to Improve

We've already addressed Hunter Pence's problems coming through in the clutch, but he wasn't the only one.

Berkman's numbers with the bases loaded:
1/7 with 6 RBIs.

Man on third less than 2 out:
.083 Batting Average with 14 RBIs in 24 ABs.

While he doesn't strike out in the clutch like Pence does, those numbers still aren't good enough for someone who's supposed to be an elite player in the 3-hole.

And though Caballo thrives in the previously mentioned situations, if Berkman and Pence can't deliver, Caballo will be pitched around whenever possible, completely neutralizing him.

I'm not saying Pence and Berkman need to hit like Albert Pujols in these situations, though a .588 batting average with 35 RBIs in 17 ABs with the bases loaded would be welcome.

But this is an area that needs to improve as well if they want to turn those close losses into close wins.

Bullpen Needs to Perform Up to Potential

The Astros bullpen could go either way this season.

It is a lot less certain than last year when the team had a solid 8th and 9th inning option in LaTroy Hawkins and Jose Valverde.

Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom could be terrific or terrible, as could Wesley Wright who had a down year last year.

If all three pitch up to their capabilities, because they all have shown they possess the talent to be effective at the big league level, the Astros will have a shut down bullpen.

However, health and consistency are the main problems facing this facet of the team.

Matt Lindstrom had problems with both last year and as a result lost his job as closer for the Marlins.

The fortune the Astros have is that Brandon Lyon has experience as a closer making him an insurance policy if Lindstrom can't perform the duties.

The conundrum is that Lyon is as uncertain a solution for the position as Lindstrom is.

He has had on and off years throughout his career and will have to have another stellar season like he did in 2009 with Detroit to make Houston's back end scary to face.

And finally the man pictured above. Wesley Wright. While he is vying for a spot in the rotation and potentially could begin the season in Triple-A as a starter, he will most likely assume the 7th inning role and share the position of lefty specialist with Tim Byrdak.

Wright had a down year last year and since he's still new to the league, it is a big unknown as to how he will respond.

The long relief of this team is a strength and is nothing to be too concerned about, but the back end is full of question marks.

Lindstrom, Lyon, and Wright are all capable of doing great things. If they will perform up to those capabilities is another story.

Moving along.

Defense Needs to Lead Team

Other than Carlos Lee, the defense on this team is quite good.

Tommy Manzella sounds like a young Adam Everett, and while he doesn't have a great stick, his defense up the middle should save a few runs here or there.

Pedro Feliz at the hot corner is also an upgrade making the Astros infield pretty strong defensively, though Kaz Matsui has lost a step.

If Quintero is behind the plate, I can't imagine there will be too many stolen bases considering he can throw even the fastest baserunners out at second base from his knees.

The only weak point for the Astros defensively is in left field with El Caballo, but Bourn made spectacular plays out in center, earning a well-deserved first career gold glove.

He can cover so much ground it helps with the defensive deficiency in left.

Pence is no slouch either leading all major league outfielders with 16 assists. That could help in making teams run less from 1st to 3rd or on sacrifice flies, really helping out our starting rotation.

This is the strongest point of the team and it will need to stay that way for the Astros to keep themselves in the running.

Castro Needs to be Called Up

Though Humberto Quintero is as good as it gets defensively, the Astros need something more.

Jason Castro at some point this year will most likely be called up. And he will need to answer the call and be something the Astros haven't had in the entire history of the franchise. A catcher who can hit.

Though he doesn't have much power now, the Astros are hoping he can grow into it.

In the mean time, his career numbers in the minors show he can at least make contact and put the ball where they ain't a lot of the time.

A .295 batting average for his minor league career and never hitting below .275 (which he hit in only 39 games in his first professional season.)

Even more impressive is his on-base percentage which is .380 throughout his minor league career.

Now granted, he hasn't played professional baseball long enough to see if these numbers will stay consistent. But the reports are all that he is a smart player, who's great defensively, can manage a ball game, and will at least put the ball in play and work pitch counts.

In the short term, we will need Quintero and Towles to hold the fort while we wait for the future.

Hopefully that will come sooner rather than later.

And while we're on the topic of the future...

Young Guys Need to Live Up to the Hype

Every Astros fan has heard of how great a prospect Felipe Paulino is (or was.)

A guy who can hit 100 mph on the gun and still snap off a breaking pitch in the high 70's to throw hitters timing into another vortex.

Sounds great.

But it hasn't worked out so far, and if Paulino doesn't put it together this year that's probably going to be it for him with the Astros.

However...

If he can contribute from the 4 or 5 spot in the rotation it would give the team a solid rotation and a real good chance at contending.

The same goes for whomever gets the 5 spot in the rotation.

Bud Norris showed flashes of being able to do the job, but too many starts where he didn't go deep in the game hurt the Astros in 2009, not only because it put the offense in an early hole, but especially because it led to overuse of the bullpen.

Everyone knows the Astros farm system is the worst in baseball, though it's improving under Ed Wade.

However, they haven't had an impact pitcher come up since Wandy Rodriguez (2005), and he just came around last season.

The Astros haven't gotten help from their farm system in terms of pitching in quite some time. So why not make 2010 the year?

A 10 win, .500 record season wouldn't be asking too much from either Paulino or Norris would it?

If Paulino and Norris can contribute by keeping the team in the game, even if they aren't spectacular, (6-7 innings pitched with 3 or 4 earned runs on average would be sufficient enough.) it will go a long way in giving the Astros some lee-way with an uncertain rotation in terms of health and performance.

Their goal should be quality starts. Not shut-outs or complete games. Just get to six or seven innings and keep the game in reach.

On to our next key to contention.

Brett Myers Needs to Eat Innings

When the Astros signed Brett Myers, they wanted someone who more than any other stat, over ERA, WHIP, or strikeouts, could eat innings.

Myers had health issues last year, but the way he pitched two years ago gives hope that he can be the workhorse we need to save our bullpen the agony it went through last year.

He's only gone over 200 IP once in his career, but he's gone over 190 IP four times in his career.

His peripheral numbers aren't going to be spectacular, so we need him to at least be able to stay healthy and stay in the game to help keep our bullpen rested, a luxury it wasn't afforded last season.

From one key pitcher to the next....

Roy Oswalt Needs to Be Consistent, Healthy

This one's a no-brainer. Every team of course needs their ace to perform.

However, other teams could survive without it.

I'm sure the Yankees could get by without CC Sabathia, as could the Red Sox without Josh Beckett.

The Astros do not have enough of a rotation, and Roy O needs to be the stopper this year.

This past season, Oswalt struggled with back issues and claims he has a new core training program to strengthen his mid-section to avoid that set-back again.

If we can have a healthy Oswalt followed by a second great year from Wandy Rodriguez, that's a potential 30-35 wins right there from the rotation.

If Oswalt does go down or doesn't perform in the first half, (As he has struggled like the past two years) it will be too much of a load for the Astros offense and bullpen to carry.

Brad Mills Needs to Get Players on His Side

It's no secret that Cecil Cooper wasn't exactly revered by the Astros roster.

Players were unsure of their roles and it was reported that Cooper was not exactly forthright when discussing that same issue with them.

The players even had a closed door meeting, locking out the managers which is a real sign of trouble in a locker room.

Another example of Cooper's disconnect with his players took place on the day Pudge Rodriguez broke the record for most games caught ever in MLB history.

That day the Astros lost to the Rangers 5-4 in a game where their poor defense basically cost them the game.

Apparently in the locker room, Cooper simply talked about the loss and was upset about the defense, then went back into his office. No acknowledgement of Rodriguez's accomplishment.

He did mention it when talking to the media, but that's not the same.

Granted this is all rumored to have happened, but it's not too far-fetched considering the closed-door meeting of the players and the team's effort in the second half.

Cooper, whether he lost the respect of the players or not, certainly didn't get the best out of them and it showed as the season wound down when it seemed like the Astros rolled over. Not something typical of this team.

If Mills can show that he cares not only about the wins and losses, but about the players themselves and their individual accomplishments, it will do a great deal for the morale of the team throughout the course of the year.

And finally...

10th Man Needs to Be Stronger

There was a short run the Astros went on last year to get within a game of first place that brought the fans to the ball park.

They sold out two straight games on July 22nd and July 23rd and then...started losing again.

And the fans went away.

Now I understand ballgames are expensive and the economy is down and blah-blah-blah.

But the Astros definitely need to have the Juice Box return to being a rocking venue that will give the team a big boost to start the year.

Minute Maid Park always gets going when the Astros are on a tear, but the fans need to be there the whole time. There's no denying the team played way more inspired ball last year when the fans came to the yard and got rowdy.

We've got to make Minute Maid the place people don't want to play.

These are the 10 keys to success for the Astros this year.

The odds of it all coming together are slim. But if the 'Stros can hit on all cylinders, they could be a surprise team to watch for in 2010.

To quote an advertising campaign from 1994 for the Houston Astros..."Let's get charged!"