Clobbering Kubel? Will Jason Kubel Be Worth Using For Fantasy Owners In 2010?

Eric StashinFeb 3, 2010

Jason Kubel has long been considered a player on the verge of breaking out and providing power for the Twins and fantasy owners, but in 2009 he finally realized that potential at 27 years old. Just look at the line he posted last season:

514 At Bats
.300 Batting Average (154 Hits)
28 Home Runs
103 RBI
73 Runs
1 Stolen Bases
.369 On Base Percentage
.539 Slugging Percentage
.332 Batting Average on Balls in Play

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He continued to struggle against left-handed pitchers, hitting .243 with 2 HR and 20 RBI over 148 AB. That continues the trend he’s had:
- 2008: .232, 3 HR, 17 RBI in 99 AB
- 2007: .236, 1 HR, 8 RBI in 72 AB

The team did bring in Jim Thome, who could take a few of his at bats, though he is no better against left-handed pitchers. In ‘09, he hit .209 in 91 AB. That makes the signing seem a little bit odd, doesn’t it?
His flyball rate was consistent with his ‘08 mark, going from 40.6 percent to 41.6 percent. It was is HR/FB that rose, at 16.3 percent compared to his career mark at 13.7 percent. It wouldn’t be surprising to see his power, either, remain consistent or fall slightly. Expecting a further increase could be a mistake.
It’s hard to imagine him repeating a .300 average, given his strikeout rate (at 20.6 percent in ‘09 and 19.7 percent for his career). His career BABIP is at .309 and he likely won’t repeat the luck he had in ‘09. His average isn’t going to hurt, but I wouldn’t expect it to help either.
The RBI should continue, hitting fifth in a lineup behind Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Those players are going to be on base a lot, giving him ample opportunity.
The runs scored is the big problem, especially from an outfielder. While the Twins have improved the bottom of their order, with the addition of J.J. Hardy, it’s still hard to picture Kubel scoring significantly more runs than he did last season. Last season there were 40 outfielders who scored 75 runs or more. That doesn’t include players like Andrew McCutchen, Nyjer Morgan, Grady Sizemore, and Dexter Fowler, all of whom are nearly guaranteed to easily reach that level, assuming they stay healthy. That significantly puts him behind the rest of the class, doesn’t it?

2010 Projection:
.280 (140-500), 27 HR, 95 RBI, 75 R, 1 SB, .301 BABIP, .353 OBP, .506 SLG

Final Thoughts:
While I’d love to say that Kubel is a must-use in all formats, that line just doesn’t justify it. In smaller formats he’s a solid bench option, or he could be drafted as a fourth outfielder in five outfielder formats. Outside of that, the upside unfortunately just isn’t there to justify using him.

What are your thoughts? Could he be used in smaller formats? What are you expecting from him in ‘10?

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