2020 Vision: Who Will Be the Premier League Big Four in Ten Years?

It’s funny how much and can change in ten years. If we were to take a snapshot of the Premier League in the year 2000, what would some of the highlights be?

Leeds finished third in the league, securing a Champions League qualifying round place in the process. Michael Bridges was their top scorer, bagging 19 league goals.

In fact, four of the top five goal scorers were English–with Kevin Phillips grabbing the European Golden Boot award with an incredible 30 league goals for lowly Sunderland. The top five were; Kevin Phillips (30), Alan Shearer (23), Dwight Yorke (20), Andy Cole (19), and Michael Bridges (19).

At the other end of the table, Sheffield Wednesday and Wimbledon were relegated – never to return to the top flight of football.

Martin O’Neil also led Leicester City into the UEFA Cup, promptly packing his suitcase and heading for Celtic at the end of the season.

Some things never change, as Manchester United won the title, finishing a massive 18 points ahead of rivals Arsenal.

Looking into the future...

But what will define the next ten years of Premier League football? Who will be the winners and losers by the time 2020 rolls around?

There are threats to the established order in the pipeline. Michel Platini has recently reiterated his plans to introduce a financial control model, and both FIFA and UEFA want to establish a system that ensures the wealthiest clubs can’t simple buy the most talented players in the market.

Whether this is FIFA’s 6+5 or UEFA’s home-grown rule, it seems some set of restrictions will be in place before the decade is up.

The financial landscape is shifting, Manchester City may be able to spend unashamedly but they could be last of a dying breed. The biggest clubs in the Premier League are leveraged in one form or another, their current paths are unsustainable.

Will Chelsea be able rebuild their squad without massive cash injections? The current playing staff may be able to defer the question for one, two, maybe three years–but they won’t be around in ten.

Liverpool are already struggling to cope with the financial burden on their shoulders, what will happen if they plough ahead with their plans to build a new stadium? The future is at best uncertain and at worst perilous.

The same story can be spun for Manchester United. Granted, they have a huge stadium, strong worldwide support, and many youthful faces in their squad. But Sir Alex Ferguson is 68, will his successor prove to be as successful in developing young talent?

The debt hanging over the club is daunting too, this may well inhibit the club’s ability to go out into the transfer market and collect the most talented prospects. This could be a key inhibitor to the club’s ambitions.

You may disagree, but I’ve discounted Manchester United, Liverpool, and Chelsea on that basis. I’m not predicting a Leeds style collapse for any of these clubs, simply that they won’t be as dominant at the end of the decade.

So if not these clubs, then who are the most likely candidates?

Young Gunners

Let’s get this one out of the way. Arsenal have a lot going for them; young, talented squad, and a world class manager–Arsene Wenger is 60, so could be in charge of Arsenal for most of the decade.

They also have a new stadium, that will generate enough cash to sustain increasing wages demands as well as the need to supplement the already impressive playing staff.

The prospect of a takeover shouldn’t hinder the club either. Wenger would still be the head honcho at the club and no new owner would risk forcing Arsene out, it would be plain stupidity.

Stan Kroenke looks the most likely candidate at the present time, and would probably operate more in the mould of Randy Lerner at Aston Villa than Roman Abramovich at Chelsea. A takeover wouldn’t necessarily mean a change in culture at the club.

Arsenal also have young players coming through the ranks, with a manager that isn’t scared to give them the playing time needed to develop into genuine first teamers.

The biggest risk to the club’s future is that Wenger heads for the exit door. Replacing the Frenchman poses a massive problem, he could move upstairs to the board room, but that would mean a much lower profile figure taking up the reigns.

If you were Jose Mourinho, would you want to run a club with its most successful manager in history sitting on the board of directors? Would you trust a character like Jose to continue Wenger’s legacy?

On the flip side, would someone like Liam Brady be able to continue Wenger’s work?

It’s a conundrum, but Arsene would be, more likely than not, hand picking his successor. That may make some Gunners sleep more easily at night when the time comes.

The toast of Merseyside

Everton are the next club on my list, and if the reason why could be summarised in two words it would simply be:

David Moyes.

He is a manager with huge potential that is already proving that he is man with supreme ability. Since arriving at Everton, he has transformed them from relegation candidates to a highly respectable Premier League outfit.

That’s no mean achievement, and he is only 46 years old. He is a relative babe in managing terms–his best years are ahead of him.

Admittedly they did yo-yo when he first arrived, finishing 17th, 4th, 11th, 6th, 5th, and 5th in the six years he has been manager. They currently sit in ninth position and are steadily climbing the league table.

In his time he has changed the composition of the side completely. They were at first a rugged and determined side, and though they still retain this quality, they have become a side that also plays progressive football.

Moyes has been astute in the transfer market, buying players such as Steven Pienaar, Mikel Arteta, and Marouane Felliani. His current squad represents a good blend of raw talent and Premier League experience, and he hasn’t been afraid to dip into the lower leagues to sign players with potential.

The club also has a good youth setup, Wayne Rooney was a graduate, and the current squad boasts players such as Jack Rodwell, James Vaughan, Dan Gosling, and Victor Anichebe.

A new stadium would be a boost, and although they don’t have a wealthy owner they do have a potentially large and loyal fan base. The club’s latest stadium proposal was a partnership with Tesco, with the supermarket shouldering a large chunk of the financial burden.

It’s thinking like this that will make Everton a powerhouse in the coming years. If the club could build a new stadium, with the extra revenue this creates, without laying out huge amounts of cash to get it constructed, then Moyes would be in a great position.

Indeed, the clubs biggest problem is similar to Arsenal’s, in that they need to keep hold of their manager if they want to step up to the big time.

If Moyes were to leave, it would be disastrous for Everton. Forget Jose Mourinho, Moyes should be top of the list of candidates for the Man United job once Ferguson retires.

Honest Villans

Noticing a pattern here? Clubs that have the highest quality managers get a spot on the list. Not exactly rocket science!

Obviously there is more to it than that, but the manager is a massive part of the equation.

Martin O’Neil has revitalised Aston Villa since joining in 2006. He manages one of the smallest squads in the Premier League and does it very well. They do tend to run out of steam towards the end of the campaign, but otherwise they are an excellent side.

The club’s chairman is wealthy but relatively frugal. He has backed O’Neil in the transfer market, with the Villans bringing in most of the current squad under the Irishman. O’Neil has signed young, British players who have genuine quality.

The likes of James Milner, Ashley Young, and Stewart Downing are excellent players. They all have their best years ahead of them. Interestingly, his squad are mostly English and would have no problem meeting FIFA’s 6+5 rule, but they have also been brought in from other clubs–so Villa would struggle to meet UEFA’s home-grown rule.

Their support is also a big factor, though perhaps guilty of harbouring difficult expectations, they can be incredibly vocal. Villa are based in the second largest city in England and don’t have much direct competition for support.

Birmingham City and West Bromwich Albion fans might disagree, but there are lots more top flight clubs to support in London or in the surrounding areas of Manchester than in Birmingham.

The youthful look of the squad, the quality of O’Neil, the potentially large fan base, and the support of chairman Lerner all add up to a bright future for Aston Villa.

The final slot...

The last place in my top four has been tough to decide, so I’m going to leave it open for discussion. I’m conscious that I’ve picked an incumbent and two of the most likely candidates, so I wanted to consider a more ‘off the wall’ club for the final slot.

I steered clear of Manchester City because I think it would be dull, besides, will the Sheiks still be interested in their play thing at the end of the decade?

Their stewardship has discounted them on the basis that their spending has effectively filled the squad out, meaning youngsters coming through from their impressive academy will have to move away over the coming years.

Money buys the luxury of impatience, a quality that sees managers ejected and youngsters shackled to the training field. Not qualities that a dynasty makes, despite the benefits of a loyal fan base and a relatively new stadium–provided courtesy of the 2002 Commonwealth Games.

Being a northern soul, I also considered Sunderland, Middlesbrough, and Newcastle United for the accolade. Middlesbrough have a very good youth set up, but lack the support and manager needed to project them to big time in ten years.

Sunderland have a wealthy owner, a loyal fan base, and a good manager. So they are a side that seems to meet my criteria, but I’m unsure that they have the pipeline of talent coming through the club to sustain them going into the future. Manager Steve Bruce is also struggling as his side plummets down the table, he’s a good manager–but is he David Moyes standard?

Newcastle are an interesting prospect, massive stadium filled to the rafters with fanatical Geordies, they are a definite sleeping giant. That Mike Ashley’s fiscal management has seen the club relegated could be a blessing in disguise. The Magpies have cleared some of the deadwood from the squad and are on a more stable footing.

The club does have some decent young players, but not the depth of talent to sustain a whittling down of the first team squad. They don’t have a high quality manager in the hot seat and don’t have the finances to buy their way up the table. It seems they will remain a team that fails to deliver on their potential.

Outsiders

Finally, I considered clubs such as Nottingham Forrest, Cardiff City, and Leeds United. Of those in the lower leagues, these are three of the clubs I see with attributes that could send them into the top flight in the next decade.

There are also big reasons why they won’t pull it off, but they wouldn’t be outsiders if they didn’t!

Cardiff have massive financial problems, with fans demonstrating against chairman Peter Ridsdale (remember him?) today after the club convinced fans to buy advance season tickets with the promise of using the money for new signings.

Instead, the club confirmed they will use the cash to pay off the tax man to avoid going into administration.

On the plus side, they are an attacking side with genuine quality. They’ve also produced young players in the form of Aaron Ramsey and Joe Ledley, shame they sold the former to Arsenal.

Leeds are another sleeping giant, a big city club with a Premier League stadium. They had Aaron Lennon, they sold him. They had Fabien Delph, and despite fans chanting ‘he’s not for sale’, they sold him. They had Jermaine Beckford, and he is leaving for Everton for free in the summer.

They are also in the third tier of English football, so it might be a push to climb two divisions and conquer the Premier League in ten years–but stranger things have happened.

As for Nottingham Forest, they have an illustrious history, and are making a late charge for promotion this season. If they could get into the top flight, anything could happen. They do have an unnerving habit of giving the manager the chop when the going gets tough, and current incumbent Billy Davies isn’t exactly Arsene Wenger.

It was a thought.

Perhaps it’s a bit of wishful thinking to say these clubs could be top four material by 2020, but this is football. Impossible is nothing.