The Pro Bowl Participation Probability Formula

In order to not be disappointed when my favorite player drops out of the Pro Bowl I have devised a checklist to determine the likelihood that the player chosen will actually appear in the Pro Bowl he has been selected to.

Take the original list. Now scan over the names one by one.

This way you won't be surprised to see David Garrard starting in a Pro Bowl.

Question One

Will the player be participating in the Super Bowl?

This is an automatic cross off. Peyton doesn't have to make up a lame excuse for not playing this year. The NFL's decision to move the Pro Bowl did it for him.

Question Two

Has the player recently participated in a playoff game?

Cross him off the list.

If Brett was 90 percent positive that he wasn't playing in the Pro Bowl before he played the Saints he is 100 percent sure now. That old body needs time to heal.

Question Three

Has the player been injured at any time during the course of the season (even a relatively minor injury)?

Cross him off the list.

When Manning and Brady became unavailable Big Ben was asked to play. He declined.

I'm not positive that injury was his excuse, but since this is a common ploy (and he did suffer a concussion this season) I'm putting his picture up as an example.

Question Four

Has the player been named to at least two previous Pro Bowls?

Cross him off the list.

First-year Pro Bowlers almost always go. They go back the second time as well. After that the luster wears off and the game just becomes another workday that is not mandatory.

This is Brady's fifth Pro Bowl.

Question Five

Is the player a ten-year veteran?

Cross him off the list.

To a veteran the NFL is not new or exciting anymore, and that includes the Pro Bowl.

Players like safety Brian Dawkins have better things to do with their time.

Question Six

Does the player have a previous family commitment that would be considered a good enough excuse to get him out of playing?

Cross him off the list.

Phillip Rivers has declined his invitation because he will be attending the birth of his baby. This is baby number five for him, but every one is special.

Add Up Your Totals

If a player who is on the Pro Bowl roster matches any one of these criteria there is a 75 percent chance he won't play. If he meets at least two of these criteria there is a 99.9 percent chance he won't play.

If a player has pending legal trouble or a family that he wants an excuse to get away from (see above caption) the odds of him playing are slightly better. If he meets two of the above criteria he has a 50 percent chance of not playing. It would take three of the criteria to make him 99.9 percent sure of not playing.

Follow these guidelines and you will be sure not to be upset when the actual game is played.

If you still care enough to watch it.