MLB Fantasy: American League Closer Rundown

American League East

New York Yankees—Mariano Rivera
Next In Line: Phil Hughes, Alfredo Aceves, Joba Chamberlain?

Every year we sit and wonder if THIS will be the year that the mighty Rivera starts to show his age.  2009 seemed to be it as he was coming back from surgery and fast approaching 40 years old.  Rivera recorded 44 saves, his most since 2005, and his ERA was under 2.00 for the sixth time in seventh seasons.  He continues to strikeout batters at an exceptional rate, despite the fact that he throws his cut fastball the vast majority of the time and everyone knows what is coming. 

Rivera has dominated the league since 1995, and with the Yankees set to be a potent team again, there’s no reason to think that he won’t have another great year.  The age factor is always there, but since he hasn’t shown signs of it yet, it seems fantasy players will be singing Enter Sandman again in 2010. 

Boston Red Sox—Jonathan Papelbon
Next In Line: Hideki Okajima, Daniel Bard

There seems to be some people in fantasy who think that Papelbon has lost some of his effectiveness and is due for a bad season, and I am not quite sure why that is.  I guess it is the yearly talk about arm trouble that keeps popping up, and I suppose it might also be a slight increase in walks.  So, I guess those people thought that he would always have his 0.92 ERA from 2006, and aren’t happy with a 1.85 ERA, just three blown saves, and 76 strikeouts in 68 innings?  That’s great, because I will take that every time. 

This guy is an elite fantasy closer, and since the Red Sox will compete for the playoffs again this year, Papelbon should be one of the first three to four closers taken off the board at worst, and could possibly be the first.  

Tampa Bay Rays—Rafael Soriano
Next In Line: J.P. Howell

After using what seemed to be a never-ending line of guys in the closer’s role last season, the Rays went out and got themselves what they hope will be a reliable stopper in Soriano.  He certainly did the job for the Braves last season, as he blew a reasonable four chances and struck out 102 batters in just 76 innings pitched.  He just turned 30 years old and has never pitched more innings than he did last year so he should have plenty of juice left for the next few seasons. 

However, with limited closing experience in his career, I am not ready to anoint Soriano as a foolproof option to put in your fantasy bullpen. Tampa should be a solid team, and he certainly did the job last season, but his ERA up very close to 3.00 doesn’t instill a lot of confidence in me, and he is pitching in perhaps the best offensive division in baseball.  Soriano is a nice mid-level closer, but if he is your number on guy at the back of your ‘pen you might be hunting for saves and a more reliable option come June or July.

Toronto Blue Jays—Jason Frasor
Next In Line: Scott Downs, Jesse Carlson

The Jays used a number of different guys last season before Frasor came in at the end of the season and saved eight games in the last two months of the year.  He allowed just seven earned runs in his 20 innings pitched after August 1, walked just six and struck out 22. 

I don’t think that it is 100 percent safe to say that Frasor is going to be the closer to start the season here at the end of January, but given the job that he did to end the year and the fact that the Jays didn’t really try to replace him, I would say the ninth inning job will be his come April barring injury.  So, seeing that he doesn’t have a firm hold on the job for a team that will likely struggle to win 75 games, I would say that Frasor is no more than a RP3 on your team, but if he is successful, could be a great value late in drafts. 

Baltimore Orioles—Mike Gonzalez
Next In Line: Jim Johnson

Baltimore picked off the other half of the Braves closing committee last season when they acquired Gonzalez.  Although he was mostly healthy in 2009, Gonzalez doesn’t exactly have a track record of being able to stay on the mound the entire year, as he has pitched over 55 innings just once in his career. 

Gonzalez certainly has the talent and the swing and miss-ability to be an effective closer.  He has always been effective when given the chance to close, and he has whiffed 330 batters in 280 career innings.  However, when drafting Gonzalez just be aware of his injury history and the fact that he pitches for a team that is not going to win a ton of games. That doesn’t always mean that he won’t get many save chances as former Oriole George Sherrill got a good number of saves.  However, Gonzalez is at best a second tier closer but more likely a solid third option for your team. 

American League Central

Minnesota Twins—Joe Nathan
Next In Line: Matt Guerrier, Pat Neshek, Jon Rauch

It was just another season in what is sure to be a Hall of Fame career of Joe Nathan.  Even though some of his peripheral numbers might not have been as good, Nathan still racked up 47 saves and 89 strikeouts in just 68 innings.  He has blown 11 saves over the past two seasons, but he is still one of the top five closers in all of fantasy baseball and should be treated that way.  The Twins always seem to find a way to compete in the American League playoff race, and Nathan will always get plenty of save chances.  He is one of the few guys that you can call automatic and is one of the safer picks as far as closers go. 

Chicago White Sox—Bobby Jenks
Next In Line: J.J. Putz, Matt Thornton

Jenks’ numbers have continued to get worse over the years as he has started to blow more saves, his ERA has gone up, and his strikeouts have gone down.  Somehow a guy who threw 100 mph in his rookie season only had 49 strikeouts in 53 innings last season.  Jenks’ ERA was way too close to 4.00 for a closer, and with the strikeouts declining by the season, his fantasy value continues to slip. 

He does pitch for a team that will contend for the division crown, but with the acquisition of J.J. Putz as well as Tony Pena and Matt Thornton looming over his shoulder, Jenks’ hold on this job has never been more loose.  Jenks is a second tier closer at best, and he is sliding into that third tier. 

Kansas City Royals—Joakim Soria
Next In Line: Kyle Farnsworth

After his ridiculous breakout season of 2008, many fantasy owners were likely disappointed by what was likely more of what you should expect from the closer from the Royals.  That being said, it was still a great season for Soria, and he is definitely one of the upper echelon guys at the position.  Soria did deal with some injuries in 2009 but still recorded more strikeouts than he did the season before and still had a very respectable 30 saves on the year.  You can feel good about picking Soria as your top closer, but if you do I would likely take my second closer before too long just in case. 

Detroit Tigers—Jose Valverde
Next In Line: Joel Zumaya, Daniel Schlereth

When the Tigers lost Fernando Rodney to the Angels, it didn’t take them long to bring in Jose Valverde to take their closer job over.  I haven’t been a fan of Valverde in many years. and it is mostly because he can get very emotional on the mound, and also tends to lose control, which means he almost always has people on base in the ninth inning. 

Overall his numbers don’t look half bad last year, but he did blow five saves, and considering he missed the better part of two months, that isn’t very good.  If your league counts WHIP, Valverde will probably hurt you there, but he should get a good number of saves in Detroit and he is also good for over a strikeout an inning.  Overall, not a bad guy, just not one that interests me. 

Cleveland Indians—Kerry Wood
Next In Line: Chris Perez, Jess Todd

Outside of strikeouts, the one thing that Wood has made a career out of, there wasn’t much good to talk about in Kerry Wood’s first season for the Indians.  He blew six saves, his ERA was well over 4.00, and he walked 28 guys in 55 innings, none of which are good numbers for a closer. It also didn’t help that Cleveland was absolutely awful, and that is something that should be the same again in 2010. 

Wood was able to remain relatively healthy by his standards last season, but it didn’t matter much because of his ineffectiveness.  Between his team, his injury history, and his subpar performance in 2009, Kerry Wood should be one of the last closers taken in this year’s fantasy drafts. 

American League West

Oakland Athletics—Andrew Bailey
Next In Line: Joey Devine, Brad Ziegler

The American League Rookie of the Year took over the closer’s job after injuries to both Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler opened the door for him and Bailey blasted through it.  Bailey converted 26 of 30 save chances, had an ERA of only 1.85, and struck out 91 batters in just 83 innings. 

Bailey was a mostly decent starting pitcher throughout most of his minor league career before being switched to the bullpen in 2008, but was never tried as a closer.  There is a chance that Bailey could fail in his second season as a closer, but I feel that he will continue to be a solid closer and someone that you can feel comfortable taking as the second closer on your roster. 

Seattle Mariners—David Aardsma
Next In Line: Mark Lowe

Every year, people who don’t draft closers will tell you that closers emerge every year.  While I do not believe in the philosophy of hunting for saves all year long, guys like David Aardsma fuel their argument.  You would have liked to see a few less walks, but other than that Aardsma did all you could hope for from a closer.  He blew just four chances while converting 38 saves, struck out 80 guys in just 71 innings, and his ERA of 2.52 was more than reasonable. 

I can’t say that I am a big believer in Aardsma in 2010 and will likely be drafted before I would be ready to pull the trigger on him.  He could repeat his breakout 2009 campaign, but given his sketchy track record as a middle reliever before last season, I am not one who will be betting on that. 

Texas Rangers—Frank Francisco
Next In Line: Chris Ray, C. J. Wilson

Francisco was my big sleeper closer coming into 2009, and until he went down with injury trouble, he was living up to what I had hoped for.  Francisco had 12 saves on June 3 when he first succumbed to injury, and didn’t give up his first earned run until May 31.  He struggled some in the middle of the season before finishing up fairly strong. 

Francisco has electric stuff and can strikeout the side anytime he takes the mound. He will likely not be taken until late in drafts with the concerns of him losing the job, but he is one of the second to third tier guys that I have a ton of confidence in.  If you can steal Francisco as your third closer, your save situation should be solid for all of 2010. 

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim—Brian Fuentes
Next In Line: Fernando Rodney

Fuentes had an incredibly rocky season in 2009 for the Angels as he blew seven save chances, his ERA was near 4.00, and his strikeouts went from 82 in 2008 down to just 46 in 2009.  Fuentes is not one of those wham, bam, thank you ma’am kind of closers.  He is very hittable and puts a lot of guys on base, and often keeps you on the edge of your seat as a fantasy owner (trust me, I had him last year). 

He will be the closer to start 2010, but you really can’t like the fact that the Angels went out and brought in a guy with so much closer experience in Fernando Rodney.  Fuentes makes a lot of money, so he will likely get a decent sized leash, but it will be shorter than it was last year when they didn’t have such an attractive second option.  Fuentes can be treated as no better than a second tier closer for the upcoming season.