The 2010 Bob Hope Classic Six Pack
By (Correspondent) on January 19, 2010
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Before we get to the Bob Hope, let's send out a word of congratulations to Ryan Palmer for getting it done last week at the Sony Open in Hawaii.
I wish my radar screen had picked him up, as he was a stunning 250:1 odds of winning, IF you could even find him on a sports book at all.
This week we are off to the Palm Desert in search of low scores and a new champion at the Bob Hope Pro-Am Classic, jam packed with useless celebrities. Actually they aren't all useless, and some of them are occasionally funny, and even less occasionally some of them actually have game.
Welcome to the west coast swing folks. The key to finding successful players here, is to pick guys that get lots of birdies, because the four courses played at this event are set up for low scoring. Last year the four courses at this tournament proved to be the four courses with the lowest scoring averages on tour for all of 2009. 2010 should prove to be no different.
Another key to picking a guy that will do well here, is to pick someone that plays this event often. The main reason is because this is a pro-am. Couple that with the fact that is one of the rare events that utilize four different courses over five days. Usually pro-ams do not attract the strongest fields due to the fact that many golfers are out there with a very business like approach. The pro-am tends to be a lighter attitude type of event, so the guys that play this event often obviously like this format and therefore are set up for success.
Did you know there is no golfer in this field that is listed with odds lower than 20:1? That is truly unusual. The guys that are in that 20:1 range include; Chad Campbell, Justin Rose, Tim Clark, Mike Weir, Justin Leonard, and Ryan Moore. Truth be told, I was very close to picking these six guys for my six pack, but I like to spread it around. After all, last year the average odds of a winner in a PGA event was 47:1. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
On to my fantasy selections for Yahoo:
GROUP A This week I am starting Scott Verplank and backing him up with Justin Leonard.
GROUP B I like David Toms and Charley Hoffman to get the ball rolling and will back them up with Webb Simpson and Chad Campbell.
GROUP C It is absolutely stunning and ridiculous that both my starter Mike Weir and my back up Justin Rose are BOTH in lowly group C somehow. The group C golfers are largely better than the group A selections this week.
Let's see who will be representing the six pack this week.
No. 1 Justin Leonard
Justin Leonard supposedly punished himself for missing the cut last week by practicing instead of watching the Cowboys playoff game. I guess if he is a Cowboys fan (and I know he is) was that really, "punishment?"
Leonard has won this event before and clearly is comfortable in a pro-am environment. He typically does well at these courses, and wants retribution for his unfortunate cut in Hawaii at The Sony Open. He may not start out atop the leader board, but he will be close enough come Sunday to make a bid for the win.
This shooter is capable of scoring in the sixties all five rounds. Last year on Wednesday he opened with a 72, thus his final result of a T42. Leonard needs to stay in the sixties all five days. If he does, he is in the top five, and possibly the winners circle.
Sign me up with Justin Leonard at 25:1 odds this week.
No. 2 John Senden
Senden has played here eight consecutive years. He has been in the top ten three of those times. He has never missed the cut here.
This guy is a perfect pick for this event, just on his track record alone. His last five years have seen him finish sixth, fifth, 33rd, 22nd, and ninth. Last year all of his round were in the sixties, except his opening day 70.
Senden is one of those under the radar, underrated players. Last year he finished of 2009 with some great finishes, including a T5 at the Turning Stone Resort Championship in October.
He led the tour in GIR percentage last year at just over 70 percent. He was 16th on tour in birdies made with 353 and also was the third ranked ball striker in the PGA.
John Senden just might be sendin' himself to Disney World at the end of this tournament, with a nice fat check. Take a small calculated gamble on him this week, as he is 33:1 odds on most offshore accounts.
No. 3 Scott Verplank
Another tried and true guy who has had decent results here, his best being a T2 in 2006. Although he missed the cut here last year he had been on a roll with two top ten finishes in the previous four years. Remember that thing I was saying about being comfortable with the format? Clearly Verplank likes this event.
Verplank also is coming off a real good year in 2009, and I'm sure wants to pick up right where he left off at last years T2 finish at the Shark Shootout. He also was T2 at the Deutsche Bank Championship right here in Boston back in early September.
Verplank sticks greens and sinks putts. He was ranked 11th in GIR percentage last year, and ended up finishing 8th on the year in FedEx Cup points. If Scotty hits his greens, he will definitely be there on Sunday.
Take Verplank this week, because he is offering superb value at 40:1 odds.
No. 4 Charley Hoffman
The California kid that is allergic to barber shops is a natural selection for this event. Cali boys typically play well here, and Hoffman especially plays well here, winning the whole enchilada back in 2007.
He has only played here three times. He finished 1st in '07, 8th in '08 and 19th last year. I like this trend tremendously. Hoffman typically plays very well on the West Coast Swing, and ususally flattens out in the late Spring. Like Charles Howell III, now is the time to take him, if he is at all a blip on the 'ol radar screen. Trust me, Hoffman is blipping!
Hoffman was 5th in birdies made on tour last year with 372. Couple that with the fact that he is an above average putter, and you may see him with his second Hope trophy in three years.
Hoffman is value personified this week, as he is a tempting 40:1 odds of winning.
No. 5 Brandt Snedeker
A cardinal rule in gambling is to never bet with your heart. I must make an exception this week with Brandt Snedeker.
He had such an injury plagued, mishap ridden 2009. I am sure he is looking forward to a fresh start here in 2010. Snedeker is one of the rising stars on tour, and is worthy of consideration because he is out to prove something to himself this year, and I know he wants to get off to a quick start.
His history at the Bob Hope Classic is dismal at best. He has only played this event once and came in tied for 60th. I am willing to look beyond this and focus more on his good attributes.
This guy was a birdie machine back in 2007 and he will need to make a lot of birdies this week if he wants to contend.
Snedeker is definitely my "wishful thinking" pick this week as he is such a likable guy. He also will pay dividends, if he gets it done, as he is a terrific 50:1 odds this week.
No. 6 Webb Simpson
Simpson was a rookie last year, and this was his breakout event. He finished T9 at The Sony Open in 2009, his premiere PGA event. The very next week here at the Bob Hope Classic, the fun loving youngster, went out and attacked the pins placing in a tie for fifth place.
Look for him to do well again this week. He may have suffered a bit at the Sony last week, but he will get back on track this week, and hopefully soar into the top ten again.
Simpson needs to focus on making more cuts this year. Last year he played a very demanding schedule competing in 30 events. He made the cut in 17 of those. Of the 17 cuts he made, he hit the T25 eight times and the T10 four times.
Simpson is a great long iron player, but if anything is lacking, it is his driver, in both distance and accuracy. He can overcome is distance issues, if he focuses on the accuracy.
Webb is my long shot special this week at 66:1 odds.
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