Quest For The Triple Crown: MLK Weekend Stakes Analysis Part I

There are four stakes races for three year old horses this coming Saturday, with The Dania Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park presenting the best wagering opportunity of all. With a full field of fourteen horses entered including six winners last time out, a case could be made for several runners in The Dania Beach Stakes. It is supposed to rain on Friday and Saturday, so the turf course will probably be soft or yielding. This makes The Dania Beach Stakes tougher to handicap, but there are two horses with 10-1 morning line odds for which a strong case can be made.

First, Nordic Truce enters The Dania Beach Stakes off a maiden special weight victory in his only start at Calder Race Course on November 15th for which he earned an 80 Equibase Speed Figure. Nordic Truce is trained by Christophe Clement, one of the nation's best turf trainers. Nordic truce also gets Julien Leparoux, one of the nation's best stakes jockeys and the leading jockey so far at the Gulfstream meet.

Second, Raging Wit comes into The Dania Beach Stakes off a lackluster 10th place finish in the Grade III Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs on November 1st, but that might not be a true measure of this horse's potential. Raging Wit flashed some talent finishing fourth in the Grade III Bourbon Stakes on yielding turf at Keeneland Race Course on October 11th, earning a 95 Equibase Speed Figure. With hall of fame connections in trainer Bill Mott and jockey Kent Desourmeaux, look for a much improved effort from Raging Wit in his first start as a three year old.

I'm going to select Raging Wit as my play here. His 95 Equibase Speed Figure in the Grade III Bourbon Stakes is the second highest turf figure recorded from all horses entered, with Bim Bam's 96 Equibase Speed Figure in the Appleton Juvenile Turf Stakes at Calder Race Course on November 14th as the highest. But Raging Wit has the better morning line at 10-1 compared to Bim Bam's 5-1. I also expect Nordic Truce to get bet down from his morning line of 10-1. Finally, I like Raging Wit because of Kent Desourmeaux's ability, especially in turf races.

The Play: $10 Win/Place/Show on Raging Wit = $30 bet

The Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs will be run shortly following The Dania Beach Stakes. Any time I am handicapping horses running at Tampa Bay Downs, I look for horses that have previously run well at Tampa Bay Downs. There are three horses warrant attention in The Pasco Stakes, with all three having won last time out at Tampa Bay Downs.

Gesu enters off a win in the Inaugural Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on December 26th for which he earned an 83 Equibase Speed Figure. Silver Craft comes in off a first level allowance win at Tampa Bay Downs on December 9th for which he earned a 91 Equibase Speed Figure. Uptowncharlybrown arrives off a maiden romp at Tampa Bay Downs on December 26th for which he earned an 87 Equibase Speed Figure.

Silver Craft and Uptowncharlybrown have the two best Equibase Seed Figure last time out. Additionally, Silver Craft's trainer, Anthony Reinstedler, has won three out of five races at the current meet. Uptowncharlybrown gets the meet's second leading rider in Daniel Centeno. Gesu will be carrying an additional six pounds due to his victory in the Inaugural Stakes, so I'm going to bet Silver Craft and Uptowncharlybrown on the top of my ticket.

The Pasco Stakes Post Positions:
1. Gesu 4/1
2. Black Diamond Cat 10/1
3. Silver Craft 9/2
4. Benestar 8/1
5. Place Value 15/1
6. Uptowncharlybrown 2/1
7. Big Looie 5/1
8. Hellen's Choice 6/1

The Play: $0.10 Superfecta 3,6/1,3,6,7,8/1,3,6,7,8/ALL = $12 bet


The Grade III San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita Park will be run shortly following the conclusion of The Pasco Stakes. Trained by Bob Baffert, Conveyance comes in undefeated as a prohibitive 3/5 morning line favorite in this small field of five runners. He earned Equibase Speed Figures of 98 and 106 in his last two starts, a maiden special weight victory at Oak Tree on October 31st and a first level allowance victory at Hollywood Park on November 25th. His main competition should come from the John Sadler trained Domonation. Domonation ran second to Tiz Chrome in the Stuka Stakes at Hollywood Park on December 19th, earning a 103 Equibase Speed Figure for the effort.

I'm going to roll the dice John Sadler's other runner in this field, Via Verde. He enters off a 4th place finish in the Eddie Logan Stakes on the turf at Santa Anita on December 28th for which he earned an Equibase Speed Figure of 101. It is important to note that the rider's saddle slipped a bit in that race. Via Verde has one win and one second place finish on the main track at Santa Anita. He picks up Rafael Bejarano in the saddle for Grade III The San Rafael Stakes, and I expect him to improve.

The Play: $10 Win/Place/Show on Via Verde = $30 bet


I will be in attendance for The California Derby at Golden Gate Fields, which will run nearly three hours after the Grade III San Rafael Stakes and features a small field of six runners. The Todd Pletcher trained Connemara enters undefeated, earning a 96 Equibase Speed Figure in a first level allowance race at Oak Tree on November 4th and earning an 87 Equibase Speed Figure in a maiden special weight win at Turfway Park on October 4th. I think Todd Pletcher has chosen to run in the less challenging California Derby instead of the Grade II San Rafael Stakes for two reasons. First, Connemara enters off a layoff of over two months. Second, he wants to keep this horse undefeated. In Russell Baze, Connemara gets not just the leading Northern California jockey, but the leading North American jockey of all time. With that said, I'm not looking any further in this race.

The Play: $30 Win On Connemara


Total Amount Played: $102

Race Schedule for Saturday, January 16th:
The Dania Beach Stakes 3:36pm EST/12:36pm PST
The Pasco Stakes 4:10pm EST/1:10pm PST
The Grade III San Rafael Stakes 4:36pm EST/1:36pm PST
The California Derby 7:15pm EST/4:15pm PST

Please look out for MLK Weekend Stakes Analysis Part II which will cover the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park and The San Pedro Stakes at Santa Anita Park, both of which are being run on Martin Luther King, Jr. Day (Monday, January 18th).