Should the Boston Red Sox Let Jonathan Papelbon Go? Not on Your Life
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When the final out was recorded in the Red Sox collapse in the ALDS, the chic panic for Red Sox nation was centered around their fiery closer, Jon Papelbon.
The panic grew so feverishly that talk radio was abuzz with fans demanding we trade Papelbon and eventually crown Daniel Bard closer.
Perhaps the nasty sentiment for Papelbon has cooled a bit since then; however, with a contract of only one year and $6.25 million, Papelbon has hardly been secured.
With the Red Sox payroll being the topic of great discussion this off-season, it would seem the BoSox are looking to cut back spending in the near future, but this does not mean that Papelbon should be considered an expendable asset.
Those who are calling for young fire-baller Daniel Bard to take over may be wooed by his 99-101 mph heater, or dazzled by his sharp 85-89 mph knee-buckling slider. But if you dig deeper, you'll see a pitcher who has hardly earned his place atop the Sox bullpen.
Fenway faithful fell in love with Daniel Bard from his first appearance on May 13 through the end of July. Still at the beginning of August, young Daniel faced his biggest challenge yet in the form of the New York Yankees.
Passing the first night in a devastating 15-inning loss, Bard took the mound the next night only to give up back-to-back big flies to Johnny Damon and Mark Teixeira. From that night on, Bard seemed to regress and his numbers showed it.
From May 13 to July 31
30.1 IP / 2.08 ERA / .187 BAA / 37 K / 10 BB / 0 HR
From Aug. 1 to Oct. 3
19 IP / 6.16 ERA / .288 BAA / 26 K / 12 BB / 5 HR
As for Papelbon's performance over the same time frame;
From May 13th - July 31st
30 IP / 2.40 ERA / .241 BAA / 28 K / 11 BB / 3 HR
From August 1st - Oct 4th
23 IP / 1.57 ERA / .171 BAA / 29 K / 4 BB / 1 HR
If you throw out Papelbon's egg-laying extravaganza in Game 3 of the ALDS, Papelbon had never allowed a run in a postseason game (26 innings).
On top of that, Papelbon, in 298 IP , has an ERA of 1.84 , and a WHIP of 0.980 . For a comparison, here are some numbers from elite closers in their first 300-ish innings of work.
Mariano Rivera
307.2 IP / 2.75 ERA / 1.164 WHIP
Trevor Hoffman
287 IP / 3.13 ERA / 1.117 WHIP
Billy Wagner
280 IP / 2.73 ERA / 1.112 WHIP
John Franco
279.1 IP / 2.58 ERA / 1.314 WHIP
Bruce Sutter
289.2 IP / 2.36 ERA / 1.025 WHIP
Any way you slice it, Papelbon is having one hell of a start to a career and isn't showing signs of regressing like some fans would have you believe. If Papelbon isn't worth securing, then who is?
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