1) Detroit Pistons
The Pistons' starting five is too talented for the team to fall off the map.
In fact, few teams' lineups have an advantage over Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed Wallace, and Antonio McDyess.
That said, unless radical changes are made, Detroit’s reign as a perennial championship contender is over.
With Larry Brown’s consistent nagging long gone, the Pistons have forgotten how to play steady defense. The days of Hamilton endlessly running opponents through mazes of screens are also finished.
Instead, Flip Saunders has his squad playing post-up, isolation, one-on-one basketball.
That style might succeed in the regular season, but against physical defenses—see the Heat and the Cavs—the Piston offense stagnates.
If Saunders revitalizes the commitment to defense, if the Pistons can get any production out of a listless bench, and if Rasheed Wallace stops blaming others for his own mental frailty, maybe Detroit can climb back to where they were under Brown
Until then, the Pistons will be less than what they could be—a championship ball club.
2) Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are good—but not that good.
Yes, they play great defense, and yes, they play with maximum effort all the time. But that tenacity comes with a price.
When an opponent matches their intensity level, the Bulls lack the extra gear to separate themselves from their opponents.
What's more, the Bulls still lack a go-to scorer. For all of Luol Deng’s talents, athletic defenders can neutralize him. And despite Ben Gordon’s soft jumper and slick drives, his lack of size means taller defenders give him trouble.
Another problem: While the focus on energy, hustle, tempo, and perimeter shooting works great at home, it leaves the Bulls toothless in harsh road conditions.
A post scorer would help tremendously, as would a time machine for Ben Wallace.
But since neither of those things exist in Chicago, once again the Bulls will be good—but not that good.
3) Cleveland Cavaliers
It’s hard to imagine Cleveland returning to the NBA Finals.
They got by last season with defensive execution, offensive rebounding, and LeBron James’ brilliance.
But with Anderson Varejao still unsigned, the Cavs stand to lose one of their best defenders and one of their most important rebounders.
Without Varejao's energy, the Cavalier defense becomes incredibly stale and stagnant.
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