Troy Glaus, Casey Kotchman and Russell Branyan

As mentioned in the last post, Troy Glaus signed a $1.75 million contract to play first for the Braves in 2010, with an additional $2.25 million in performance bonuses.  Also, the Mariners are apparently close to a deal with the Red Sox to acquire Casey Kotchman.

Troy Glaus: at least he’s cheap.  Glaus was hurt last year and had only 29 major league ABs and 114 professional ABs.  He’ll be 33 in 2010, which is not especially old as ballplayers go, but it’s old as hell for players with his body type and injury history.  Glaus is listed at 6′5″ and 240 lbs and I’d bet he weighs more than that as I write this.  Aside from last year, he had major injury problems in 2003, 2004 and 2007.

At this point in his career, Glaus should really be DHing for an American League team.  He’s brittle as brown leaves and should be kept as far away from the playing field as possible.

In fairness, it’s possible that at age 33, he has one semi-full year left in which he can bring his proven power stroke to the fore.  However, the Braves will need a Plan B.

Almost immediately after the signing of Glaus was reported, the Braves were reported to have signed Erik Hinske.  Hinske has a lot of value as a pinch hitter and role player.  However, if he gets 300 ABs in 2010, it’s a bad thing for the Braves.  With Glaus as the Braves’ every day 1Bman in 2010, there’s a good chance Hinske will get too many ABs.

What to make of Casey Kotchman?  He was the 13th player selected in the 2001 draft, and he’s been a classic bust: a 1Bman without major league power.  Fangraphs likes his defense, but a 1Bman who can’t hit is a 1Bman who can’t hit.

In fairness to Kotchman, he had a good year for the Angels in 2007 at age 24, posting a .372 OBP and an .839 OPS.  However, he hasn’t approached those numbers the last two seasons.

Here is Dave Cameron of USS Mariner’s take on Kotchman.  The thing I will add is that if the Casey Kotchmans of the baseball world are going to have big seasons, they are most likely to do it at age 27.  Casey will be 27 in 2010.

The question then comes down to money.  Kotchman made $2.85 million in 2009.  He’s arbitration eligible, since he was tendered a contract by the Red Sox.  Reports have it that Kotchman will likely sign for around $3 million for 2010.

As I see it, Casey Kotchman at $3 million is a push: he’s cheap but he’s not that cheap.  Last year, the Mariners signed Russell Branyan for $1.4 million and received an .867 OPS out of him.  If Kotchman has a classic age-27-best-season, he might reach an .867 OPS.  That’s best-case scenario.  If so, it will come at twice the price of Branyan’s 2009 season.

Speaking of Russell Branyan, he’s a great example of why life’s not fair.  He has been an extremely undervalued player his entire ten year career up to 2009.   He hit for power, he got on base, and he played good D at 3B.  However, no one would really give him a full-time shot because he hit for a low average and struck out a lot.

He finally got to play regularly in 2009 at 1B for the M’s, and he had a great year.  Aside from the .867 OPS, he also hit 31 HRS in only a little over 400 ABs.

After his big season at the tender age of 33, Branyan was ready for his pay day.  Unfortunately for him, he’s seeking it during the worst year for free agents since at least the last year the owners were actively colluding.  With the economy in the tank, the teams are seeing the hole and not the donut when it comes to players, and Branyan has a lot of wholes.

He’s 34 in 2010.  He’s never had another major league season anywhere close to his 2009.  He didn’t play even one game at third in 2009, which greatly diminishes his relative value (3Bman with .867 OPS’s are superstars; 1Bmen are not).

Finally, his OPS before the 2009 All Star Break was .955, but only .688 after.  That’s enough to scare almost everyone away in this economy.

Branyan held out for a pay out, and the M’s are closing in on a deal for Kotchman.  So it goes.

Unfortunately, a sensible team would see that given his age and past performance, Branyan is worth no more than about the $3.25 million for one year the Giants just gave Juan Uribe.  Branyan priced himself out of the current market, and now he’s going to to have to scramble to find a job for somebody like the Pirates.

It’s a tough break for Branyan, who deserves better, but, unfortunately for him, not a lot better.