2) Miami Heat
The Heat are the NBA’s wild card.
If Shaq and Dwyane Wade are healthy, the Heat will be able to compete with any team in the league.
If they aren't, and if the rest of the supporting cast is as decrepit as last year, Miami may miss the postseason entirely.
Shaq had a dream season in '06-'07: He was able to start the year out of shape and sit out half the season because of injuries...before proving that he still had it by leading the sub-.500 Heat to a division title.
That said, Shaq’s poor conditioning left him gassed in the second halves of the Heat’s first-round playoff losses. That and Wade's injured shoulder doomed the team.
Given that Shaq has never been good at staying in shape—and considering that he’s fighting a losing battle with Father Time—it's hard to imagine he'll be the impact player the Heat need this season.
Then there's the bench.
The Heat rid themselves of the Antoine Walker cancer—but can Dorell Wright contribute to an NBA team?
Alonzo Mourning, for his part, isn’t fit to play more than 12 minutes a night. Will Pat Riley be able to ration the center minutes so that neither player ends up fatigued?
Does Jason Williams have any game left in his legs? If not, Smush Parker’s defensive shortcomings, inability to run the point, and inconsistent offensive game will drive another coaching legend out of his mind.
Udonis Haslem will rebound and defend as well as any other power forward in the year. But if he’s asked to be a third option, Miami is in serious trouble.
With all those questions, it's hard to envision Miami making too much noise in the East. The Heat will be a dangerous playoff team with Wade and Shaq—if they qualify.
Expect a turbulent regular season in South Beach.
3) Orlando Magic
In Rashard Lewis, the Magic finally have a talented wing scorer who can free up space inside for Dwight Howard.
Lewis is tough to contain off the dribble, and also can post up—though Howard's presence makes that skill redundant.
Despite his stiff offensive game, Howard is a voracious rebounder and an intimidating shot-blocker. As his offensive repertoire evolves and expands, Howard may become the next feared center in the league.
The rest of the lineup is still below par. Jameer Nelson is a third guard in a two-guard lineup. Having him start will significantly limit Stan Van Gundy's options on offense.
Keith Bogans is the best defensive guard the Magic have, but his rough offensive game seems best fit for a bruising ball club. Trevor Ariza is another talented defensive wing who can score in a broken court.
Ariza's ability to change the tempo of a game makes him best suited to a sixth-man role.
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