I love debating schedule strength. Yeah, that's pretty lame, but I can't fight it any longer.
And while a subjective ranking based on my biased perspective would generate tons of discussion and name calling, it really has no purpose beyond that.
So instead, I've decided to come up with a way to rank the top 25 schedules using nothing but numbers. No opinion whatsoever, at least not from me. Figuratively blindfolded while at my computer.
But before you skip down to the rankings, please allow me to answer a few questions:
1.) Why only 25 teams?
Because this is the accepted number for all college football rankings. We love 25. Hate 26. And plus, ranking all 119 FBS schools would take just long enough for me to become very depressed about how I spend my time.
2.) So how did you pick this group if you didn't rank them all?
Good question. I began with the preseason rankings from Lindy's power poll (look over on the right once you get there).
I would have used Athlon's, but they seem to have already incorporated strength of schedule and moved Georgia down because of it. Using theirs would have somehow screwed this up. Our streams would have crossed.
Basically, the use of this poll is the only source of opinion built into the rankings. I had to start somewhere.
In order for this to work, we all have to collectively agree that Lindy's has at least put the best teams within a few spots of where you and I would have them. If we can agree on that, we're good.
Don't see your team on here? Don't worry. This is just a starting point.
3.) So how does the formula work?
Teams receive points based on the following situations, and the overall goal is to have the lowest total value:
- You get a point for the ranking of the teams you play. Play Ohio State? Get three points. Play Auburn? You get 13. Remember, this comes from Lindy's ranking.
- If you play an unranked team who was in a bowl game last year, you get 44 points. This is the mean average ranking of teams left who played in bowls, but are not ranked by Lindy's.
- If you play an unranked team who did not go to a bowl last year, you get 91 points. Same rationale as above.
- You get to subtract four points for playing ranked teams on the road.
- You get to subtract four points every time you play ranked teams back to back (bye weeks in between cancel your bonus).
- And finally, you subtract eight points if you have to play a conference championship game. My assumption was that you would likely play someone in the top 16, and the average ranking would be about eight.
4.) What if I don't like your formula?
Remind yourself that it doesn't really matter, as long as it's consistent for every team. Or cry about it. Whatever.
Obviously averaging the rankings hurt some teams and help others. Teams like South Carolina count against you for 91 points because they didn't play in a bowl last year, though we all can probably agree that they'll be in the 20 - 30 range this year.
But, on the other hand, you don't get penalized as much for playing cellar dwellers like Florida International and Western Kentucky. It's designed to balance itself out.
Enough with the background information. On to the rankings.
25. BYU - Has zero preseason ranked teams on its schedule.
24. Fresno St. - Wisconsin and UCLA provide only "tests."
23. Wake Forest - Rough patch of Clemson, Maryland, Miami all in a row.
22. Texas Tech - This could get tougher if Nebraska and Texas A&M shape up.
21. Missouri - Shocked to see this come in so low, but no Oklahoma unless they meet in the B12 CG.
20. Oklahoma - Texas and Kansas back to back. Texas Tech late. Not much else. See above.
19. Pitt - Skewed by so many average bowl teams from last year. Notre Dame and Cincy are wild cards.
18. Arizona St. - Georgia, at Cal, at USC, UCLA, and at Arizona. Don't be shocked if three of those are losses.
17. Illinois - Missouri early, Ohio State late, and a lot of solid comp in the middle. Oh, and a Rose Bowlseye on your back.
16. Oregon - Seven straight before an open date. Boise St., and games at USC, ASU, Cal, and Oregon St. 2007 was probably your year.
15. USF - Kansas, Pitt, and WVU should be huge. Four more '07 bowl teams.
14. Clemson - Open with Alabama. Close with South Carolina. Solid ACC center with late date in Tallahassee, plus championship game.
13. Wisconsin - Strange one at Fresno St. Then at Mich, OSU, Penn St., at Iowa, and Illinois. In order. Athletic director deserves a cheese basket.
12. USC - At Virginia, OSU two weeks later, and a back-to-back with Oregon and ASU. Cal, Notre Dame (?), and Neu-C-L-A. Somehow 11 more are tougher.
11. LSU - Creampuff start, brutal from there. At Auburn, Florida, South Carolina, and Arky. Home games against Georgia and Alabama. Two losses won't cut it this year.
10. OSU - Trip to LA early to most likely make/break the season. At Wiscy and Illinois. Home dates with Penn St. and the Michigan Wolveneers.
9. West Virginia - At Colorado on a Thursday Night. Does any road team like a Thursday night game? Auburn at home, with Louisville, Pitt, and South Florida to finish.
8. Florida - Hawaii and Miami early in the typical 'tuneup' games. At Tennessee and Arkansas. LSU and SC at home. Against Georgia, in Jacksonville, for control of the universe. Finish up at FSU and an SEC CG birth, or look at the season as a failure. Sounds like fun.
7. Kansas - At South Florida early. Every powerhouse B12 team imaginable. A hopeful championship game berth to prove last season wasn't a fluke? Not likely. Pop in your March Madness DVD if things start going south.
6. Florida St. - Biggest shocker to see their schedule this high. Though after eating a few cupcakes while the suspended players rest, it becomes a who's who of 2007 bowl teams with some big names sprinkled in. Miami will improve. VT is always a problem. Clemson feels it's their year. So does Florida. Plus a championship game if you make it through all of that. Dadgummit.
5. Tennessee - The pendulum will likely swing the other way this year for Phil and Co. Squeaking out game after game in '07, this year brings a trip to UCLA, Florida early, at Auburn, at Georgia, who might be looking for some revenge, and late tilts with Alabama and South Carolina.
4. Texas - Arkansas early. A Colorado team that has to improve. All of the big boys in OU, Missouri, Kansas, TTech, A&M, plus a death match against one of them all over again if they want to play in the Orange Bowl.
3. Auburn - Southern Miss, LSU, Tennessee, and a Thursday night trip to West Virginia to chase Noel Devine around the field. Georgia three weeks later. Take a breath. Go to Alabama. Leave no one behind.
2. Alabama - Clemson to open things up in Atlanta. The worst road schedule I've seen requiring trips to Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, and LSU. Auburn at home for dessert. This is not the kind of schedule you want your young kids hanging their title hopes on. Figure things out this year. Kick the door down in '09
1. Georgia - Far and away the most difficult schedule on paper in 2008. The only team to play six ranked opponents (per Lindy's), with two separate sets of back-to-back meetings with ranked teams. Fly to Arizona St. Bama a week later. Fly to LSU. Florida a week later. Mix in some Tennessee, South Carolina, Auburn, and Georgia Tech for additional flavor. Dawg fans had better hope Mark Richt has three or four new pre-game stunts up his sleeve.
Remember, this was the result of a formula used for all teams equally. Aside from the wisecracks, there was no opinion on my part.
Tomorrow I will try to explain some of the oddities and correct for teams that I see making major improvements and declines in 2008. That, and we'll see if there's a way to mash it all together and select the two teams who should be booking rooms for a January trip to Miami.
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3 months ago
This was awesome, Eric.
The biggest shocker to me was FSU.
Kansas and Tennessee are in for some tough football this year...
Good stuff.
from 3 months ago
I agree this is amazing,
And Tim now can you see why i have them at 6-6.
from 3 months ago
Dude, not sure I ever disagreed with you.
from 3 months ago
you didnt i was just restating my point and using this has evidence. sorry if you thought that i was calling you out.
3 months ago
good read.
i know it may be cliched to say that the SEC teams will knock each other off, but i think will will happen this season.
UGA is a great team but has a brutal road ahead. they face 6 ranked teams (like you pointed out). LSU did the same thing last year and lost twice before facing two more ranked teams in Tennessee and Ohio State. a little help from oklahoma and pitt didn't hurt, luck is key in any season.
no doubt it's gonna be a rough road for the dawgs.
3 months ago
Good stuff, I like your formula.
3 months ago
Nice article. I imagine the conference championship points will continue to stack teams in the top 10. The first non-conference championship team is West Virginia at #9, then OSU. OSU only plays USC and Wisconsin in Lindy's top 25. Wisconsin? Mich, PSU and Iowa strong? And OSU with stronger SOS than USC? Like preseason rankings, let's put this away until the end of the year.
3 months ago
I love your formula but your rankings are not to good. FSU, Wake Forest shouldn't be ranked. Okalahoma and Missouri should be in the top ten. Tennessee, Alabama, and as much as it hurts Auburn not in the top five probably the top top. I THINK you should rerank your top 25.
from 3 months ago
Once again i agree with Quenton. I agree with the Missouri Tigers should be ranked a higher and heres why. They open vs. an up and coming Illinois team who will supply us with some big-up sets this year and I can also see them finishing the season top 25 for sure. Yes Southeast Missouri State is a joke but then we play a Nevada team who isnt half bad. Last year the wolfpack lost in an 4OT game to bosie state, and lost to Hawaii by two. Thats not much but its better then Missouri State. Buffalo is a joke. Then we roll into Lincoln were personally anything can happen just because Nebraska fell off the table doesnt mean you can forget about them. This is a team that can play ball. Ok St isnt bad but it should be an easy game. Then Texas, texas is a team who I think will push OU for the Big Twelve South, plus the game is in Austin. The last two games that will stand out for sure are Colorado and K-State. In conference play these teams never go away. If anything i can possible see one of those two teams giving mizzou are run for there money like Illinois did at OSU last year. Kansas is a toss-up this here. I Believe that they will go 6-6 but who knows. Lastly even with bumps the bumps in the road i think the Tigers will advance to the Big Twelve Champ game where they will play a really good OU team or a really good Texas team.
from 3 months ago
It is a strength of schedule ranking, not a preseason top 25.
from 3 months ago
I know, i am not stupid. I am arguing that are schedule is harder then you think
3 months ago
Interesting formula. Definitely different and refreshing from all the other formulas out there today.
3 months ago
I think MO should be a lot higher!
3 months ago
Good effort but I dislike the formula. Is there that big a difference playing #25 or #26? Not really, but it makes a huge difference in your formula.
Also it disregards the creampuffs on the schedule, look at LSU's OOC for example. Pac 10 teams should (and do in most legit SOS polls) get a bump for 9 conference games too.
3 months ago
5 Big 12 teams...the best play the best.
3 months ago
This is why a lot of people like me hate the BCS. There are only BCS schools in top 23 regardless of how good they are or were last year. Does anyone remember undefeated Boise State, Utah, and a 12-1 BYU in 1996 who all got snubbed for the good BCS games only to be matched up in a lesser bowl and win their game. The BCS is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Basically no matter how good you are, unless you go play in BCS conference you cannot get a reasonalble ranking and therefore not have a strong schedule. BYU plays UCLA, at Washington, at TCU and at Utah this year. To get to a BCS game they will have to be undefeated. Notre Dame can lose 3-4 games and beat 1-2 good teams and get a mention. To top that off the worst teams in a BSC conference get more money than the best teams in non-BCS conference... The system rewards only the same conference regardless of performance. Rediculous!
3 months ago
Good conversation piece to discuss at this point of the summer but, the proof will be at the end of the year. We don't know how good some of these teams are and just because you're predicted to go 11-1 doesn't mean you won't go 8-4 and your end of season ranking would necessarily be lower in figuring an opponent's strength of schedule. Just ask anyone that plays Clemson, they always start out talking National Championship, and end up in a Peach Bowl or so.
3 months ago
I think some of the readers are missing the point of the article.
Eric is NOT ranking teams. He's ranking Strength of Schedule.
Eric let Lindy's do the ranking and used that as the basis for developing the SOS. That's why some of you have some disagreements with the rankings, because you're not seeing what you think you're seeing......
3 months ago
Thanks, Chris.
There are some good comments and points being made. I'll try to address them all shortly.
3 months ago
this is a good idea, but I'm not that a strength of schedule rating based on last year's success is actually that useful. Teams can change pretty drastically over the course of an off-season.
3 months ago
I like your idea, some flaws, but overall I think it's a great way to determine SOS.
Just doing the top 25 probably took a great deal of time I'm guessing.
3 months ago
So when Rutgers smokes Fresno State in the season's first game, does that mean the Bulldogs will be 0-1 but still "untested"? Give me a break . . .
3 months ago
No surprise that 6 SEC teams find themselves in the top 11 in toughest schedules. It is absolutely ridiculous to try and maneuver that schedule. That's why it was complete garbage when Auburn did not get a chance to play in the National Championship game after going undefeated.
from 3 months ago
Louisiana Monroe, Louisiana Tech, and The Citadel... are you kidding me? Auburn got rightly punished for having such a weak OOC that season... and it seems to be working since now Auburn has teams like WVU, KSU, and USF OOC now.
from 3 months ago
SEC schools shouldn't have to play very good OOC teams because of how tough their in conference schedule is. Auburn had to play LSU, @ Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and Tennessee twice (@ TN and @ GA Dome) that year. Going undefeated through a stretch like that should be good enough.
from 2 months ago
Stephen - why? That only gives you 6 wins. Who did the other contenders take on in their OOC schedules and beat by way of comparison?
2 months ago
Well, you mention SC in most of your SEC rankings of toughest schedule. Take a closer look at SC schedule and you will see that it is no cake walk. So at least give it a 23 for Fuck sake.
12 days ago
I'm writing this long after the item (thus, with hindsight) but there is a glaring omission from this list of teams: Vanderbilt. True they had no preseason top ten teams scheduled, but looking at their opponents before the season, their "cupcake" games are Miami-OH, Rice and Tennessee. They don't have a single I-AA team or bottom feeder from I-A (e.g. Army) and their other nine opponents are all good teams (e.g. Georgia, Kentucky).
Considering how several of Vanderbilt's coming opponents are climbing in the rankings, their schedule is getting tougher by the week. If they finish undefeated or even with one loss, it will be hard to deny them a spot in a BCS game.
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