The rich keep getting richer- that's the theme for the Pac-10's 2008 outlook.
Two teams have had major coaching changes, and injuries to some teams' key players will play an important role in determining the pecking order of these ten teams. An interesting story-line is that only one team returns fifteen or more starters this year. The Stanford Cardinal.
1. USC Trojans.
The Trojans will not be rebuilding this year, nor any other year, unless the NCAA decides to hand out some sanctions. They just keep reloading, and already have a killer recruiting class for 2009. The Trojans have some key losses on both sides of the ball, but their baptism by fire with their season-opener at Virginia should get them fairly used to what the expectations are.
Offense.
The O-line is the biggest concern of the team due to the losses of both tackles, two guards and their center. Left tackle is the biggest concern- it's QB Mark Sanchez' blind side- but the five projected starting linemen have all had starting experience. Since Sanchez is an extremely mobile quarterback, the O-line could have less pressure defending the pass rush until they jell as a unit.
The quarterback picture is crystal clear, and the Trojans have the perfect storm brewing. All three- Mark Sanchez, Mitch Mustain and Aaron Corp- could start today on any FBS team. The running back situation is also a little less muddled, now that three tailbacks are not returning. The stable is talented and deep, with Joe McKnight, Stafon Johnson and CJ Gable getting most of the touches.
The wide receiver corps, usually a reliable unit for the Trojans, underachieved last season. Too many dropped catches and incorrect route-running. This year's Spring practice saw a different unit taking hard hits and hanging on to the ball. Patrick Turner, Vidal Hazleton, David Ausberry and Damian Johnson will all split duty, while TE Chris McCoy has big shoes to replace- Mackey Award winner Fred Davis.
Defense.
This unit will be ranked in the top five in the country for good reason, despite the losses of LB Keith Rivers, DT Sedrick Ellis and DE Lawrence Jackson. The projected starters are all top notch, including sophomore Everson Griffen. The linebacking unit has been ranked #1 or #2 preseason, and the Nagurski Award could go to Rey Maualuga this year if he out-shines the other big contender- James Laurinaitis- in their game against the Buckeyes on September 13th.
The secondary suffered one big loss in CB Terrell Thomas, but the senior duos of Josh Pinkard and Cary Harris will fill the loss nicely with their experience. Safeties Taylor Mays (6-4, 225) and Kevin Ellison both had extensive playing time last year, and this secondary unit could be one of the best in the nation. Mays looks and hits like a linebacker. Remember his name.
Outlook.
The Trojans should win the conference championship due to a more favorable schedule- they host Oregon, Arizona State, Washington and Cal- three of the four other contenders in the Pac-10. The Trojans' BCS title game's hopes come down to two dates: September 13th hosting the Buckeyes, and November 29th hosting a much-improved Fighting Irish. Win them both and beat the Sun Devils and Ducks, and it's off to the BCS title game.
2. Arizona State Sun Devils
In just one year, the Sun Devils went from a six-win season in 2006 to a ten-win season under first year coach Dennis Erickson. This year, the goals are even higher. Remember, they earned a co-championship of the Pac-10 last year, but their loss against USC left them without the Rose Bowl bid.
Offense.
Rudy Carpenter comes back for one more shot at quarterback in his senior year. Last year, he played with a sprained thumb for half the season, but is now injury-free. This will be his best year yet, and as it stands now, he is third on the career passing leaders list at Arizona State.
The O-line picture is not as rosy. The Devils lose their First Team Pac-10 center Mike Pollak, as well as two right tackles, a left tackle and left guard. While the line did well last year in scoring offense, they were horrendous in sacks allowed (only Notre Dame was worse) and with only thirty-plus starts between the five of them, they had better improve quickly. This is the key to Arizona State's season.
The receiving unit also took some big hits, with five gone, including two tight ends and one of whom- Zach Miller- was a Mackey Award finalist for 2006 season. The good news is that two of three projected WRs have had good experience- both Chris McGaha and Michael Jones had 13 starts last year- with Jones averaging almost seventeen yards a catch. Their TE, Dane Guthrie, played DE last year.
The running back situation is a "let's wait and see" attitude, with the Devils losing Ryan Torain. Keegan Herring (815 yards, 5.3 ypg) is the projected starter, and is extremely fast (4.3 in the 40). The problem for the running game is how well the O-line pushes off their blocks. Last year it wasn't a problem.
Defense.
The D-line looks more solid with three starters returning. They did lose DT Michael Marquardt, but the incoming addition of true freshman Lawrence Guy, a very highly touted lineman, could alleviate some jitters.
The linebacker unit looks very strong. They lost a stud in Robert James (First Team Pac-Ten), but returning five backers with starting experience, there will be no let-down. This unit looks like a monster.
The secondary was ranked in the top third last year, and looks to be about the same this year. They had two key losses in SS Josh Barrett and CB Justin Tryon, but this unit also returns four DBs with starting experience. Look for the same kind of season as last year's-steady, reliable and competitive.
Outlook.
This year's schedule is much more formidable than last year's. For starters, they host Georgia on September 20th. They get a bye, and then have a brutal two week road trip at both Cal and USC. Their hopes for a Pac-Ten crown are dependant on whether or not they can snap that 8-game losing streak against the Trojans, and beat either Cal or Oregon for a shot at a Rose Bowl bid. If they can do that, and beat Georgia, then you may be looking at a BCS-title dark horse.
3. Oregon Ducks.
We all know what could have happened if Dennis Dixon hadn't gotten hurt- probable BCS title game. But Dixon is gone and now what? Another very good team that should contend for the Pac-10 crown. Their schedule is the only thing that could stop them from running the tables.
Offense.
It all starts at quarterback, and this is one of the two only real question marks on the team. Will the starter be Nathan Costa, a dual-threat like Dixon, Justin Roper or BYU transfer Cade Cooper? Once the position has been settled, the team should get back to some stability.
The other question mark is at running back. How do you replace Jonathan Stewart, who is now second on the school's career rushing leaders list? Head coach Bellotti went the JUCO route, and is pretty high on LeGarrette Blount, a pounding runner. They also have senior Jeremiah Johnson (who is a nightmare in spread-option formations) back, so while the excitement of Stewart will be gone, they still should have enough weaponry in their arsenal to keep the D honest.
The wide receiver unit is a little iffy, and really dependent on how consistent (read- minimizing dropped passes) Jaison Williams is. It's that simple. Well, that, and remaining injury-free. Last year Williams' stats were down from the previous year despite being thrown a lot of passes by Dennis Dixon. The Ducks get a possible boost from USC transfer Jamere Holland, another projected starter.
The O-line, despite losing LG Josh Tschirgi and RT Geoff Schwartz, will not suffer any let-down. Oregon has always had a strong offensive line with huge depth, and this year is no different. Center Max Unger, an All-American candidate, is back, as well as LT Fenuki Tupou and RG Mark Lewis.
Defense.
The D-line looks good to go. They have to replace two DTs, David Faaeteete and Jeremy Gibbs, but so far, it doesn't appear to be too big of a task. While the Ducks look secure on their ends, there is a depth issue on the line. Two JUCO's have been brought in to solidify the tackle positions. If the Ducks can avoid injuries, then the line should hold up.
The secondary will probably be the best in the country, hands down. They only lost two free safeties, which sounds like a big problem, but it's not, thanks to Rover Patrick Chung. He's First Team Pac-10 and the heart of the D. Throw in Walter Thurmond and Jairus Byrd, the two best corners in the Pac-10, and you have an opponent's quarterback's nightmare.
The linebacking unit has suffered numerous injuries, and this could be a problem if some others don't step up to the plate. They lost two linebackers, but that's not the problem- it's the others avoiding injury. Jerome Boyd is the only one to return with thirteen starts last year. John Bacon had nine starts last year, and the anticipation of Casey Matthews (yes, he's related to Clay and Bruce) erupting into a beast could add some spark.
Outlook.
Solve the quarterback issue (six of them have two career starts total) and everything falls into place. Sort of. There's also this little issue called a schedule. The Ducks host Washington in their opener, instead of a lower-division cream puff, and while the Huskies don't exactly look like national title contenders, this could be a rough start for the Ducks' inexperienced quarterback.
They also travel to Purdue, host Boise State, then travel to USC, Arizona State, Cal and Corvallis for their rivalry game against the Beavs. It may be too much to ask for an eight-win season, but then again, if they can split their road games and win their non-conference games, they will be right in the thick of it.
4. California Golden Bears
Just what is it with the Bears? Every year they come in as a preseason top 25 team, and every year they manage to lose a game they shouldn't at the worst possible time, usually in bundles. So close, yet so far. Last year they beat Tennessee and Oregon, but lost to Washington, Oregon State and Stanford, after being highly ranked. This year, they are not in the top 25 in some preseason magazines, and that's what makes them so dangerous- no one expects a lot from them this year.
Offense.
The quarterback issue isn't really an issue, or is it? Senior Nate Longshore, after having a terrific year before suffering a chipped bone in his foot, might not start due to sophomore Kevin Riley winning the fans' hearts. Whoever wins the starting job, the hope is that he improves even with their four WRs leaving.
The second problem for the Bears is the running back situation. They lost Marshawn Lynch prematurely to the NFL, and Justin Forsett, who ran over 1,500 yards, is also gone. Add Justin Montgomery transferring to Washington State and you have a depleted backfield. The Bears' best hopes rest on sophomore Jahvid Best, a 10.3 speedster in the hundred meter dash.
The receiving corps is the third issue for the Bears. DeSean Jackson bolted for the NFL, and they lost Robert Jordan, Lavelle Hawkins, TEs Craig Stevens and Julian Arthur. The best returning receivers, Nyan Boateng, has only four receptions, while LaReyelle Cunningham has ten. It's time to re-build.
The O-line is a bright spot on the offense. While they lose their LT Mike Gibson, LG Brian De La Puente is back and this unit has averaged only twelve sacks a year for the last two years. They should give excellent pass rush protection. Their All-American center Alex Mack is back as well.
Defense.
There's good news here. The linebacking unit is just stacked with talent and depth. The Bears could go to a 3-4 to compensate for the depth issues on the line. The talent is there on the line, with six of eight returning. They lost Matthew Malele, but have Rulon Davis, Derrick Hill, Tyson Alualu and Cam Jordan returning.
The linebacking unit could be one of the best in the Pac-10. All-Pac-10 Zack Follett is back, as well as Anthony Felder and Worrell Williams. This is a strong unit and should back-up the DL until things start to jell there.
The secondary also looks good, with only FS Thomas DeCoud and Rover Brandon Hampton as the notable departures. Both corners- Syd'Quan Thompson and Chris Conte have started games- and Bernard Hicks taking over the FS spot should be an easy transition for the Bears' secondary.
Outlook.
Thank goodness for small favors. The Bears schedule only calls for five road games; Washington State, Maryland, Arizona, USC and Oregon State. Their date with Maryland could be a sign of how well this team gets into Tedford's game plan. While their season won't end in Pasadena, they should have at least six or seven wins and a bowl bid. Considering all the losses on the offense, that's not a bad place to be.
5. Arizona Wildcats
Mike Stoops' job just might get saved this year. And he'll owe it all to the offense, not defense- something the Wildcats are not known for. He is in his fifth season, has never had a winning season, and if the Cats don't go bowling this year, it's probably back to Norman, Oklahoma where he would most likely be greeted with open arms.
Offense.
Quarterback Willie Tuitama returns after breaking all kinds of school records. He's got plenty of weapons to throw to, including Mike Thomas, Delashaun Dean, Terrell Turner, Terrell Reese and TE Rob Gronkowski. The only key loss in this unit is Anthony Johnson. This team will throw hard and often- think WAC-like offense here.
The running back situation isn't as favorable. Their top back, Nic Grigsby, was ranked ninth in the Pac-10, and unless he gains 20 lbs, will not be the possession back they so desperately need. They only lost one back, so while the talent is there, it's very young and inexperienced with a lot of underclassmen on the roster.
The O-line is sitting pretty with almost everybody returning except four year LT starter Peter Graniello. This unit looks to be the anchor of the team, and if they can really hold their blocks, the running game could improve drastically and take some pressure off of the passing game.
Defense.
This is normally the strongest part of the team, but this year, they must replace eight starters, including All-American CB Antoine Cason and LB Spenser Larsen.
While the line backing corps has a lot of new faces, it still looks pretty strong. JUCO Vuna Tuihalamaka is expected to start after not qualifying academically last year, while Ronnie Palmer and Xavier Kelley should fill out the box. It won't be spectacular, but it will be a solid unit.
The D-line is very inexperienced and not a unit that is expected to do well. Two new DEs and DTs will be lining up and only one has a career start- Chris Horton.
The secondary is a mixed bag. They have two replace two DBs and Antoine Cason. Since they were ranked in the top 25, you have to figure some drop-off here. FS Nate Ness returns and joins CB Devin Ross. A lot of new faces, and while probably talented, this unit will not have the same results as last year's unit.
Outlook.
The Wildcats need to go bowling this year, or else. This is the year they could do it. While always known as a defensive team, this year will surprise everyone. They will pass a lot, especially if their running game doesn't materialize.
Their schedule is do-able. They open with three easy non-conference games then travel to a most likely beat-up Bruins team. They have only four conference road games- UCLA, Stanford, Washington State and Oregon. Their probable losses against USC, Oregon and Oregon State with the rest probable wins make them cancel their fishing plans in December.
6. UCLA Bruins
This is a rebuilding year for the Bruins- make no mistake about it. Forget the 25 players gone (17 of them starters), they also have a new head coach, Rick Neuheisel, and new OC Norm Chow. If that isn't enough to make your baby blue hopes' fade, both of their starting quarterbacks are injured-one for the year, and one projected to be back in the Summer. It's going to be a scary ride, Bruin Nation.
Offense.
Only one way to go, and it's up. With only four starters returning and averaging a paltry 22.4 ppg, it's time to produce. Unfortunately, Patrick Cowan tore his ACL and is out for the year, leaving only Ben Olson, who is recovering from a broken foot, to guide the offense. This wouldn't be such an issue except the quarterbacks' injuries are a result of a suspect O-line. Very suspect.
Center Micah Reed and LT Micah Kia are the only returning linemen who have ever played a game. Scary. Real scary. And they have a new O-line coach. Don't look for any real progress as far as blocking and pass rushing. Norm Chow will have to get real creative to overcome the thin O-line.
The running game also took a hit- Chris Markey, Derrick Williams and Michael Pitre are gone. Kahlil Bell and Raymond Carter are both a question mark due to injury. Fullback Chane Moline could see a lot of action in the game.
The wide receiver position at UCLA has always been a source of pride, and last year, Brandon Breazell and Joe Cowan were the unit's leaders. This year, Breazell, Cowan and TE William Snead are gone. Osaar Rasshan, who was used as a quarterback when both Olson and Cowan were hurt last year, could come back to his natural position, but with the current injury-plagued quarterback situation, that's a big if. Marcus Everett returns for his fifth year, and with the dearth of talent in this position, there shouldn't be that much of a drop-off.
Defense.
The D-line looks like it's in good shape. The Bruins lost DE Bruce Davis, DT Kevin Brown and DE Nikola Dragovic, but return stalwart DTs Brigham Harwell and Brian Price as well as DEs Korey Bosworth and Tom Blake. All in all, the D-line is solid.
The linebacking unit will be about the same as last year's unit. Kyle Bosworth returns on the strong side, but the weak side is a little iffy. Reggie Carter, the team's signal caller, will be back in his natural position and is the heart of the Bruins' D.
The secondary is a bit of a mess. Four of the eleven DBs were Spring walk-ons. The one bright spot, Alterraun Verner, is the earth's eighth natural wonder. He is extremely underrated, and a terrific pass defender. And he'll have to be, since the Bruins lost CB Trey Brown, FS Dennis Keyes, CB Matthew Slater and S Chris Horton. Yep, a lot of teams will be passing on the Bruins.
Outlook.
This is a rebuilding year, make no mistake about it. The Bruins have the talent, just not a lot of experience. The quarterback disaster doesn't help the offensive issues at all.
The good news is that the Bruins have a superb coaching staff, and there is excitement in Westwood again.
The bad news is their schedule- not a schedule a rebuilding team wants by any measure. Three of their first four games are against top 25 teams: Tennessee, BYU and Fresno State. They also take road trips to Eugene and Berkeley. The prospects for a winning season do not look good, but it's not due to the talent on the team, it's due to the brutal schedule for such a young team. Look for the Bruins to eek out a six-win season as a goal, perhaps even surprise an unsuspecting Pac-10 champion contender or play the spoiler, and then fasten your seatbelts for next year.
7. Washington Huskies.
The Huskies are the sexy pick to be the biggest surprise of the year, but they need all the planets in the universe to align at the right time. Once a fearsome opponent in the Pac-10, they have had a bad stretch since 2005- a total of six conference wins. Like Stoops, Willingham's hot seat may reach a scorching level if the Huskies don't go bowling this year. Their schedule is not that favorable, but then again, it has been one of the toughest in the nation for the second year in a row.
Offense.
It all starts with Pac-10 Freshman of the Year Jake Locker. Last year he was hurt, but this year he's back and could cause havoc in the Pac-10, much like Dennis Dixon did before he was hurt. He has a cannon of an arm and can run past the best of defenses (102 yards against Ohio State). In short, if Locker has a break-out year, the Huskies could be bowling.
The running back unit will have to replace Louis Rankin, but they do have some potential weapons in Brandon Johnson and JR Hasty. The wide receiver unit has loads of talent, but short on experience. Like USC, the Huskies suffered a lot of dropped passes last year. They have a freshman Chris Polk, who originally committed to USC, and some other highly touted players including returner TE Robert Lewis. After losing six receivers, this unit has to jell fast.
The O-line returns three starters, and should have no problem giving Locker some room to maneuver. They only lose RT Chad Macklin, but senior Juan Garcia suffered a foot injury and may miss all of 2008.
Defense.
The Huskies rolled over last year by giving up an average of 446 ypg- a school record. And it really doesn't look too much better this year. They have a new DC, former NFL'er Ed Donatell, but don't expect him to work any miracles this year. The D is just too inexperienced in the trenches.
The line is a major problem, and losing five of six starters doesn't give much hope for 2008. Key losses include three DTs and two DEs. With so much inexperience at the line and some depth at linebacker, expect the Huskies to convert to a 3-4 just like the California Golden Bears are expected to do.
The linebacker unit looks more promising, returning five with starting experience and two actual starters. While they lose OLB Dan Howell, the have EJ Savannah and Donald Butler coming back. Expect this group to be the leading tacklers on the team.
The secondary returns only two starters, but they are good ones- Mesphin Forrester started all games last year, and FS Jason Wells. They lost CB Roy Lewis, but with seven players returning with starting experience, they should be OK.
Outlook.
Let's put it this way- it will be a roller coaster ride for Huskies fans. Longing for the glory of the 2001 Rose Bowl-winning team, the Huskies have to step it up this year. The offense can do it, the D will not.
Their schedule is again brutal- last year they were ranked #1 in SOS. They open their season at Oregon. Then host BYU and Oklahoma. They could surprise the Cougs if Locker can run wild, but the Sooners will also run wild on the Huskies. The remaining games include road games at Arizona, USC, Washington State and Cal, with Notre Dame sandwiched between USC and Oregon State.
8. Oregon State Beavers
They finished last year 9-4 and beating the Terps in the Emerald Bowl. Always a team that gets overlooked in the Pac-10, and always a team that can snatch victory out of an unsuspecting Pac-10 team's jaws. Mike Riley has always been on the verge, but never can get over that hump. This is another one of those years where he could go far, but the past is usually more indicative of where the Beavers will end up- better than average.
Offense.
The Beavers have an unusual situation- they have two outstanding QBs in Sean Canfield and Lyle Moevao. Who gets the start? Moevao is 4-0 after taking over Canfield's spot when he was hurt. Canfield is a NFL-prototype drop back passer, while Maevao is much more mobile. Mike Riley has a tough decision to make.
The running back situation is a bit iffy. The Beavs lost two-time 1,000 yard rusher Yvensen Bernard, as well as four other backs with limited playing time, but they should be able to find a capable back to carry the load in either Jacquizz Rodgers, a very highly recruited freshman, or Ryan McCants.
The line looks good to go. They return three starters, and barring any injury, will be rock-solid. They had some issues on the left side (LT Tavita Thompson, academics and LG Jeremy Perry, knee) but with the two of them also returning, the Beaver Nation should feel very comfortable with the line.
The receiving unit got a huge boost when Sammie Stroughter was awarded an extra year after a kidney issue. In 2006 he had almost 1,300 yards, and with the departures of Anthony Brown and Brandon Powers, his return will be a huge confidence-builder for the unit.
Defense.
The Beavers only return three starters, but almost everyone has had some starting experience, so no need to panic. They lose six of their eight linemen, but return their two DEs, Victor Butler and Slade Norris, who combined for 19.5 sacks for 188 yards in losses. While they were primarily sack specialists, they could see more extensive playing time this year.
The linebacking unit, while returning no starters, has all had plenty of experience as back-ups. The problem is that all three departing backers this year were on the All-Pac-10 Second team. That's a huge loss, and could be critical against some strong running teams.
The secondary only loses two- SS Daniel Drayton and CB Gerard Lawson. Safety Al Afalava is the unit's leader, and they return two key CB's in Keenan Lewis and Brandon Hughes.
Outlook.
Their conference schedule is not that bad- they host USC, Washington State, Cal, Arizona State and Oregon. Their non-conference schedule is a different story- they go to Penn State before returning to face a depleted Hawaii, USC and then back on the road again to play Utah. All in all, there isn't really one guaranteed win on their schedule since they travel to a much-improved Stanford in their season-opener.
9. Washington State Cougars
After four years of not being a contender in the Pac-10, Bill Doba was canned and Paul Wulff (Eastern Washington) was given the nod. He is installing a no-huddle spread offense, so while the team's offensive production will be exciting to watch, it will be a first year experiment. The Cougs haven't been strong on the defensive front for a long time, and this year will be no different.
Offense.
Quarterback Gary Rogers returns (5th year) and while he has a nice arm, his ability to stay in the spread offense is a concern- he's not very mobile. Alex Brink had a lot of experience and with his departure, the Cougs will have to be patient.
RB Dwight Tardy returns, but is coming off an ACL injury. Chris Ivory is a more breakaway threat, and if Tardy isn't 100%, Ivory will see more carries.
The receivers unit lost a big name in Michael Bumpus, as well as TE Jed Collins and Charles Dillon, but All-American Brandon Gibson, after flirting with the NFL, has decided to return. The unit looks very inexperienced, and could be a major concern.
The line looks a lot more promising, with nine of the top ten back. They lost LG Bobby Byrd, a 4-year starter, but that's it. Their experience could give Rogers some more time to work his magic in the pocket.
Defense.
The D has always been the Cougs' biggest problem, and this year is no different. The line has been consistently man-handled and the secondary was marginal at best last year.
The line has two starters returning, A'i Ahmu, a RT who specializes against the run, and DE Andy Mattingly. They lost four linemen, and Wulff raided some JUCOs to give the line some more depth.
The linebacking unit has more experience, with Greg Trent, Corey Evans and Kendrick Dunn all returning. The problem is depth- if one of them goes down with injury, the alternatives do not look good.
The secondary can only be described as this: the top tackler on the entire team was FS Husain Abdullah, and he's gone. They return a CB (Alfonso Jackson) and a SS (Chima Nwachukwu), and that's it. Look for this unit to get a lot of action, as everyone will be throwing on the Cougs.
Outlook.
A new coach, new offense and lingering defensive issues will not give the Cougs' opponents any reason to fear them. It's rebuilding time. They open against Oklahoma State, a guaranteed loss, then host Cal before traveling to Texas and playing Baylor, a possible win.
After a Portland State win, the Cougs host Oregon, then play at UCLA, at Oregon State, host USC, then go to Palo Alto to play Stanford, a possible win, Arizona, at Arizona State then host Washington for the Apple Cup and close out their season at Hawaii. A three-win season is not unrealistic, and a five-win season would be a huge confidence-builder going into 2009.
10. Stanford
Last year the Cardinal went 4-8, including that historic upset against USC. This year, they will not be surprising anyone. While the Cardinal return the most players in the Pac-10, most of these players aren't the same caliber as their counterparts in the Pac-10. The question is, can second-year coach Jim Harbaugh get them to over-achieve again?
Offense.
Tavita Pritchard will be in a battle for the starting spot against Michigan transfer Jason Forcier and sophomore Alex Loukas. This is the real bright spot for the Cardinal-depth at the quarterback position.
The wide receiver corp suffered a major loss with both Mark Bradford and Evan Moore gone. Richard Sherman and Doug Baldwin look to be the projected starters, but Bradford was fourth on the Cardinal's all time reception yards, so there could be a huge drop-off this year.
The running backs all have experience. Senior Anthony Kimble returns after a injury-plagued 2007, and Toby Gerhart could actually steal the starting spot away from Kimble. This unit has a lot of potential, especially due to the deep O-line returning.
The O-line is the strength of the team, with only center Tim Mattran and LG Mikal Brewer as the most notable losses. They have four linemen with nine or more starts returning, and they get a huge boost with Oklahoma State transfer Chase Beeler filling in as RG.
Defense.
Nine players return with starting experience. The question is, can they handle the high-octane offensive juggernauts in the Pac-10? Probably not. Remember, this is the team that beat USC, but lost to Notre Dame.
The D-line has some experience with DE Pannel Egboh (six sacks, 13.5 tackles for a loss) and NT Ekom Udofia returning from an injury-riddled season last year, but lose Chris Horn, a DT with eleven starts and 24 tackles. If they can limit the injuries, this could be another positive for the Cardinal.
The Cardinal return their top two linebackers, but when you consider Clint Snyder was their #2 tackler and Pat Maynor was their #3 tackler, all that means is that the opposing teams have a tendency to break though the O-line a lot. Still, the top tacklers return, so this is a confidence-booster.
The secondary is a concern, although FS Bo McNally was second in the Pac-10 with tackles (114). Still, when your FS is a leading tackler, there are issues. Huge issues. Their SS has not played on any defensive unit since middle school, and is a converted WR. The Cardinal secondary was ranked #74 last year, so there's definite room for improvement. The loss of CB Nick Sanchez could be a big concern, but how much worse can it get?
Outlook.
The Cardinal have seven road games, and that will probably be too much for them to handle. Their conference road games are at Arizona State, Washington, UCLA, Oregon and Cal. Not very encouraging for a team in transition. Throw in a road game at Notre Dame and TCU, and you have a team that will be lucky to equal last year's 4-8 season.
The Cardinal's last three games are the key to another losing season: at Oregon, USC, at Cal. That's about as brutal as it gets when you consider both Cal and USC were upset by the Cardinal. Can you say P-A-Y-B-A-C-K?
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3 months ago
really well written...how long did it take you to write that?
3 months ago
Doug-
Freaking forever! My fingers hurt!
3 months ago
Nice article, but would you please give Cal back its football coach?
No way anyone in Berkeley is swapping Harbaugh for Tedford!
:-)
3 months ago
OMG Jim! Thanks for that...I had written second year coach Jeff Tedford, but I knew it was Jim Harbaugh! (How can I forget after what he said about Pete Carroll last year?) Stanford was my last team to write about, and I think I had a brain lapse there. I'm beat after writing this...thanks for the correction!
from 2 months ago
Good article, I think you underrate Stanford. Returning 16 starters, plus the easiest opponents come early...Stanford's never a deep program so they're going to be banged up and lose the late games anyway, but talent-wise they're no worse off than Arizona, Wazzu, or Washington (not to mention UCLA, who I think is seriously in for a down year). Plus they've got a good motivator up there. And the defense is seriously legitimate. A bowl's obviously a reach, but I see 4-5 games being reasonable.
3 months ago
I meant John, not Jim...see? I'm punchy. Good night!
3 months ago
What a great, simple breakdown! I really enjoyed reading a clear, unpretentious analysis of the Pac-10 2008 season without obscure testosterone-fueled jargon that only Jim Romeesque listeners understand.
Kudos.
from 3 months ago
Chris-
Thanks. I have to keep it simple...too much info to put out there. But hopefully, a Pac-10 fan can find their team and read everything they need to know heading into Fall.
3 months ago
Chris hit it on the head, this was a very simple yet well put read. And as a die hard USC fan I appreciate honesty more than espn b.s haha
from 3 months ago
Reggie-
Fight on!
We looked awesome at Spring "Huddle"! I was hoping the Bruins would have had a great practice also, but all those injuries and losses really put a damper on their Spring game. They will not have a good year, but next year, they will be very good.
3 months ago
man, Lisa, you're a sportswriting machine!
nice breakdown.
i'll have to file this is the reference section.
from 3 months ago
Justin-
Thanks! Thank goodness this wasn't the SEC...that's two more teams to analyze! Now, I am expecting an analysis from you on the SEC...whoo hoo!
from 3 months ago
i guess i'll have to clear my schedule. doh!!!
3 months ago
What the hell. How does the Tiger Woods article get pick of the day and not this? Thorough research and understanding demonstrated with proficient writing skills. Guess that doesn't cut it, but it does for me. PotD.
from 3 months ago
Nathan-
Hey thanks for the props! The Tiger Woods piece rocked!
3 months ago
I have to seriously question your ranking system after USC and ASU. Oregon at #3. Not next season. With major question marks at QB and a brutal schedule, the Ducks will finish in the bottom 1/2 of the Pac-10, not top. At minimum they lose the 4 road games you mentioned (USC, ASU, Cal and OSU). Throw in a probable loss at Purdue and the Ducks are looking more like 6-5. Also, ranking OSU 6th is a total slap in the face to a team that has DEFIED expectation and finished in the Top 3 in the conference the last 2 years. They should be #3, not the Ducks. File this away: 1) USC, 2) ASU, 3) OSU, 4) AU 5) Cal, 6) UO, 7) UCLA, 8) UW, 9) Stanford, 10) WSU.
3 months ago
Russ-
If the Ducks do win with most of those games, where would you have them? I understand your points, but the Ducks are pretty intact, except for the QB situation. Their secondary is the best in the nation. I have to give them props. I think putting the Ducks one notch above the Bruins is a slap in the face. The Bruins will be lucky to get 4 wins this year...the Ducks will be bowling.
PS....The Beavs at #3? Are you a Beavs fan?
from 3 months ago
Lisa,
Win most of what games? The 4 brutal road contests (5 if you count at Purdue)? Let's not forget Boise St, which is always competitive against Pac-10 teams. If they win those games then I would say they are the best team in the conference. Let's be realistic, though. They wont beat USC in LA (or even Eugene this year), highly unlikely they will be competive against ASU in Phoenix, the Cal game will be tough in Berkely and the Ducks havent beaten the Beavs in Corvallis in the past decade. Secondary best in the nation? According to whom? The misguided columnist? Their run defense allowed over 200 yards against the Beavs in the Civil War without the Beavs best RB. They also allowed teams like UW and AU to run wild over them. If they cant stop the run, what good is a solid secondary? The Ducks will be 6-5 and with luck 7-4. Putting them above the Beavs? How?
3 months ago
Russ-
If the Ducks do win with most of those games, where would you have them? I understand your points, but the Ducks are pretty intact, except for the QB situation. Their secondary is the best in the nation. I have to give them props. I think putting the Ducks one notch above the Bruins is a slap in the face. The Bruins will be lucky to get 4 wins this year...the Ducks will be bowling.
PS....The Beavs at #3? Are you a Beavs fan?
from 3 months ago
Russ-
Misguided columnist? That's OK if you disagree with me, but you don't have to make it personal by name-calling.
Last year I picked Illinois as a sleeper to go to the Rose Bowl, and Notre Dame to only win 4 games. I was called an idiot.
I like the Ducks chances, and yes, they have as good a chance as the Trojans or Sun Devils. They're an excellent defensive team, and if they can solve their QB situation quickly, like USC, they're good to go.
3 months ago
Lisa,
Yes, I am a hardcore Beaver fan. They have finished #3 in the conference the last 2 years and I see nothing to dissuade my thinking that they wont finish in the Top 3 this year. They have one of the more favorable home schedules of any team in the conference (USC, Cal, ASU and UO at Home). I agree, the Bruins are ranked WAY too high. They are in a major rebuilding year and will be lucky to win 4-5 games.
3 months ago
ok...russ...let's make a friendly non-wager on it. I say O has better season than OSU. Name the wager.
3 months ago
I do think the Ducks can finish in the upper half of the Pac-10. But, it really does depend of figuring out their QB play.
The Ducks' D will certainly keep them in many of those tough road games you mention and hopefully the offense can make some plays for a W.
Also, I don't see the Beavs finishing quite a low. They will have their problems on D, but Riley always seems to find a way.
I seem them right up there near the middle of the Pac.
Great article, by the way.
Dennis
from 3 months ago
Civil....Riley is a great coach. He can make adjustments, for sure. I just think there is more talent in Eugene. I can be very blunt at times.....sorry.
I just see such a tremendous talented team, especially on defense, in the Ducks. Thanks! quack, quack.
3 months ago
Lisa, this is a wonderful article. USC will be amazing as always...
3 months ago
no way the beavers finish 8th, they have the 3rd best coach in the league and a managable schedule with usc, cal, oregon and asu at home
from 3 months ago
the problem is, I don't think it will make a difference with USC and ASU at home. Those are two losses right there.
from 2 months ago
You probably didnt think it would make a difference in '06 either when the beavers beat USC.
or the fact that the beavers had the ASU game in the bag last season if the quaterbacks had more experiance and wouldn't have throw so many interceptions.
3 months ago
oregon in even seasons lately:
2002: 7-6
2004: 5-6
2006: 7-6
2008: 6-6, maybe 6-7 if they sneak into the hawaii bowl
from 3 months ago
bowl....I'm not one who believes in trends, but that's pretty kewl trend analysis.
3 months ago
You like the other "homer" fans when they are Trojans like you and agree with you. But A Beaver "homer" pops up to say give us some love for how we have finished the last few years and you get all defensive. TELL ME, WHERE DID YOU HAVE US RANKED LAST YEAR? HOW ABOUT THE YEAR BEFORE? I BET IT WASN'T #3. The main reason we even had our first few losses was due to an inordinate amount of picks from some unsteady QB's. Now that they have some games under their belts I don't anticipate them tossing 5 picks a game early on like last year.
Oh and I wouldn't pat myself on the back too much for picking ND to finish low. Whoever thought that you were an idiot for picking ND to only win 4 games... well, they were the idiots. Most anyone who was football savvy last year didn't jump on the yearly ND bandwagon. They have sucked for a long time now and prop their record up by playing a weak schedule every season.
Take the average, non-informed fan's impression of each of these Pac-10 teams and ask them to rank them based on reputation and past performance and you get a list pretty similar to yours. Next time try to not just go on reputation and do some real research.
from 3 months ago
Ryan-
Dang, chill dude. It's over two months away and already you are getting defensive about your Beavs. Sorry...let me spell it out for you.....I think the Ducks have more more talent and are a better team. Period. You don't have to agree, and that's fine. But chill. I had you in the top 20 last year, 4th in Pac-10, FYI.
Re your statement of "They have sucked for a long time now and prop their record up by playing a weak schedule every season."
ND played one of the more difficult schedules last year, and had a #24 SOS last year. Oregon State was #16, so for you to say ND had a weak schedule is pretty inaccurate. Maybe you should do some research before you pop off.
3 months ago
very very good preview.. we all know USC will be up there but as a fan of the Arizona Wildcats and the Zona Zoo, they always play up to their opponent when they come into Tucson.. look for the CATS to throw the ball 50 times a game, I'm not kidding.. Watch out Arizona State when you come down to Tucson because the CATS will be desperate to beat Sparky and the Sun Devils..
3 months ago
Michael....yeah, the Wildcats will be fun to watch this year. You got a good shot to go bowling!
3 months ago
Good Read, Lisa! This was a simple straight forward excellent written piece. As a Die Hard Trojans fan I enjoyed the breakdown of the squad and I'm in agreement. I'll also echo the comments of Reggie & Chris. Great Article.
3 months ago
Lisa, pretty solid top-bottom. I think Stanford may make a move ahead of WSU due to the Harbaugh factor. Also, do not worry about the proverbial chip on the shoulders of many Oregon State fans. They hate the fact that Phil Knight came out of Eugene and has helped the Ducks recruit with the likes of everybody not named USC in the Pac-10 these days. Chip Kelly is as innovative as any offensive coordinator in the country, so give him a fall with Costa, and the kid will be good to go once UW comes to town. I say an 8-4 season is likely with a chance of 9-3 if Costa proves to be the real deal and healthy.
from 3 months ago
You definitely won't have to worry about those Beaver fans when the Beavs beat the Ducks for the 3rd straight year at Reser! They will be on the field celebrating, like they did last year at Autzen!
That's why they play the game and keep the score. Scoreboard >>>> Recruiting ranking. Take that to the bank Uncle Phil.
3 months ago
Lisa, I enjoyed the article and especially like it when the homers get their hackles up and all too often tend to get just a wee bit too personal sometimes to bolster a weak argument. I must now laugh at myself. I thought I knew most of the cfb jargon but I couldn't figure out why when you said a team might do well they might go bowling. lol. Why in the world would they go bowling? Duh! I finally got it after reading it a few times. Thanks for your efforts.
3 months ago
Lisa,
Zach Miller left Arizona State a year ago, he had 44 catches for the Raiders last year. Might want to give that a little fix. Otherwise great article, nice breakdown of the pac 10.
from 3 months ago
Chris....
thanks...I made a note that he wasn't coming back but should have been more specific- they lost their Mackey finalist in 2006. I edited it to be more clear. Thanks for the clarification. :)
3 months ago
Great article Lisa!
3 months ago
Good article for the most part. Being a huge WSU fan, I tend to get a little frustrated when someone from the press messes stuff up about us. CBS is the best at it. Anyway, for the WSU section. There is no Brandon Charles.
Charles Dillon graduated.
Brandon Gibson did not. And he will be back for this year to contend for the best WR award in the PAC
from 3 months ago
Adam-
Ok, you are correct. I messed up Gibson and and Charles' last names. I edited it to say Gibson. Thanks for the heads-up...if I could afford an fact-checker/editor, you would be the man I would hire. Thanks!
3 months ago
The Beavs will be 1 or 2 this season, that is my prediction.
3 months ago
You aren't alone in that prediction!