Part two of four of game-by-game analysis and projection of the 2008 Michigan Wolverines' season.
September 27th – WISCONSIN
Michigan ends the month of September with the start of Big Ten play, welcoming the Badgers to Ann Arbor. Returning eight starters on offense and nine starters on defense, Wisconsin looks primed to make another run at a Big Ten Championship, and will look to build momentum heading into their matchup with Ohio State the following week.
Questions surround the Badgers at the quarterback position, as Kansas State transfer Allan Evridge was unable to distinguish himself from Dustin Sherer at the end of spring ball. However, with Wisconsin returning four legitimate ball carriers in P.J. Hill, Zach Brown, Lance Smith, and prized recruit John Clay—who sat out his freshman season due to academic reasons—the Badgers seem set on wearing down defenses and continuing to run the football.
All-Big Ten tight end Travis Beckum also returns to provide the Badger quarterbacks a reliable target and force defenses to respect the passing game.
On defense, Wisconsin loses stalwarts Nick Hayden and Jack Ikegewuono to the NFL. However, linebackers Jonathan Casillas and Deandre Levy, defensive end Matt Shaughnessy, and free safety Shane Carter all return to lead what should be a solid unit.
Though health will be a question mark for this Badger squad, as 26 players missed time due to injuries during spring ball, most if not all should be healthy by the time the season rolls around, providing this young Michigan team with its most daunting task yet.
Though Michigan should enter this contest looking to avenge last year’s loss which cost them a share of the Big Ten title and a trip to the Rose Bowl, Wisconsin dominated on both sides of the ball in last season’s matchup and I anticipate much of the same.
Look for the Badger defense to stymie the young Wolverine offense, and P.J. Hill and Co. to wear down the Michigan front four as the game progresses. Michigan begins Big Ten play with its first loss of the season.
(L 28-10)
October 4th – ILLINOIS
Following last year’s breakout season, The Fighting Illini look not only to challenge for the Big Ten crown, but avenge last year’s loss to Michigan that knocked them out of the Big Ten race.
The key to Illinois’ success this season hinges on the play of junior quarterback Isiah “Juice” Williams. With Rashard Mendenhall and his 1,700 yards rushing off to the NFL, the Illini offense will run through Williams. If he is unable to get the ball to star sophomore Arrelious Benn and provide a consistent passing threat to pair with his abilities running the football, this season could be a step back for this Illinois program.
On the defensive side of the ball Illinois looks to replace six starters, including stand-out tackle Chris Norwell and leading tackler J Leman. However, with leading sacker Will Davis returning, along with ends Douch Pilcher and Derek Walker, the defensive line looks to be a strength of this Illini squad.
This past spring, two-year starter Brit Miller moved from the strong side to replace Leman in the middle, and with promising sophomore Martez Wilson in the mix, the linebacking corps should be solid as well.
Even with corner Vontae Davis returning, the secondary remains a question mark as Illinois attempts to replace safeties Kevin Mitchell and Justin Harrison. Their replacements should be a key determinant of the overall success of this defensive unit as a whole come September.
Though Michigan should enter the contest fired up coming off of last week’s loss, with Juice Williams’ improved play through the air, and a talented front seven returning on defense, the Wolverine offense is quieted for the second consecutive week, starting off the Big Ten season with back to back losses.
(L 20 – 13)
October 11th – TOLEDO
The Rockets start the year searching to replace running back Janele Parmele, who is gone after piling up 1,511 yards and 14 touchdowns last season. Though quarterback Aaron Opelt and leading receiver Stephen Williams both return to lead the offense, the departure of four-year starter John Greco at left tackle should send shivers up Rocket fans’ spines.
Redshirt freshman Mike VanDerMeulen will be handed the task of protecting Opelt’s blind side from the likes of Brandon Graham and Tim Jamison.
On defense, Toledo returns eight starters. However with coach Amstutz’s reshuffling of the entire unit, their experience may be negated. Michigan’s size and speed advantage will become evident early, as the Wolverines end their two-game losing streak and dominate the Rockets.
(W 38-7)
Stay tuned for part three as I preview the matchups with Penn State, Michigan State, and Purdue.
comments (18) write a comment »
write a new comment
2 months ago
so they kill toledo but barely beat Miami Ohio.... where do you come up with this stuff..... they will be 2-4 through the first 6 games
from 2 months ago
once again these are my opinions, but I do have a method behind the supposed madness. UM plays Miami the second week of the season, and by that time they will still be working out the kinks. I have them putting up so few points vs them because Miami returns a talented front 7 where 2 of their LB were all MAC, one being the defensive player of the year and Michigan will be relying very heavily on the run game at this point of the season.
By week 6, UM will have settled into the offense a bit more, and this past spring Toledo's defense was shuffled as two starting LB were moved to DE, giving UM a decisive size advantage in the trenches and placing more inexperienced players to replace them at LB. That being said, I believe UM will roll, as Toledo has found no replacement for the one player who constituted so much of their offense the previous season.
2 months ago
uh I'd hope they would roll... your talking about two MAC teams that suck as if they are games that Michigan needs to worry about.... which in all honesty they do need to worry because they are going to suck this year.
2 months ago
Wisconsin is going to lose to Michigan in Ann Arbor and so will Illinois.
Badgers haven't beaten UM there since 1994 and before that Kennedy was in office: 1962.
Badgers can beat Michigan in Madison any day of the week, but Michigan Stadium is a problem for the cheesemakers. Badgers are 7-30 vs. Michigan since 1960. Pretty sad.
And Illinois? I don't know what to say. Michigan last lost to the Illini in Ann Arbor in 1999.
Last year the Illini were at home coming off a huge upset of Ohio State, on national ABC TV audience with Brent Musberger sensationalizing the crap out of Zook, UM with Hart out and Henne at 60%, and couldn't seal the deal. Their No. 1 rusher is gone and suddenly they're going to waltz into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan. I respect Illinois for beating OSU on the road last fall, but I didn't consider OSU to be a very good team last fall in the first place. I just have a hard time buying into the idea of an Illinois win here. Could happen, but it's very unlikely.
Great analysis.
from 2 months ago
just one thing, Illinois' upset of Ohio State came after UM's victory over the Illini, they played OSU the same week we lost to Wisconsin
Another thing, as next season will be my last football season as an undergrad at Michigan, GOD I hope you're right
2 months ago
(Addition to comment above) Better Badger and Illini teams have come to Ann Arbor, played lesser Michigan football teams and inexplicably lost. Michigan has a strong advantage at home against certain conference opponents for some reason. Badgers and Illini are two of them.
2 months ago
I have a good feeling about the Wolverines this year against Illinois. I have to disagree with your prediction on that particular game. I also think the Wolverines offense in general is going to put up more points than your estimating. The Wolverines have some freshman coming in that could make immediate impacts for them. I cant wait to see how RR uses Sam McGuffy in his attack this year. Also, lets not forget that the Wolverines will have a healthy Kevin Grady in the mix this year!
2 months ago
Every single Michigan fan must be completely oblivious to what has gone down in ann arbor over the last few months.
Illinois had Michigan beat last year but started making stupid mistakes towards the end of the game and ended up losing. Michigan is a terrible team this year and Illinois for all we know are the same or better... Illinois will win this game.. may be closer than I think but Illinois will take it.
As for Wisconsin... uh all you bring up is that fact that they haven't won in ann arbor since 94. You failed to mention the fact that Wisconsin has a better team that Michigan this year.. and the fact that they have PJ Hill who will probably run wild on your no name defense.
The best thing about this whole argument to me though... is the fact that Michigan fans won't even mention the name of THE Ohio State University.... be prepared for the worst beat down of your life Michigan... we'll run up the score big time this year... oh and enjoy your new coach... remember coach Cooper for Ohio State... you just hired him hahaha!
from 2 months ago
Adam, I DEFINITELY AGREE with you on this one!!! I have noticed that MOST (if not, ALL) Michigan fans have been COMPLETELY OBLIVIOUS to what has gone down in Ann Arbor... SINCE December 2, 2006 :)
I mean, this is PROOF that there are still NO INTELLIGENT LIFE FORMS located in Ann Arbor, Michigan. DELUSIONAL IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT :)
from about 1 month ago
Adam,
Michigan State almost beat your precious Buckeyes last fall but fell behind by one touchdown.
But by your logic that can't possibly be attributable to Spartan mistakes, can it? It would have to be due to the stupendous play of the Buckeyes, right?
You write as if Michigan is the only team in the country with a patent on bonehead plays and embarrassing losses.
Love the overconfidence. It somehow suits Ohio State football fans best, as well as the one football program Americans can least stand to see in the national title game again, only to get their jocks handed to them by an SEC team.
2 months ago
No one mentioned Ohio State in this article because this article is not about Ohio State DUH!!! Get over your school already... Michigans no name defense is returning one heck of a D-Line and two great players in the secondary. Juice Williams is not a good quarterback. Period. He found success as the second option behind Rashard Mendenhall. With out him, Juice will be fored to use his bad arm more frequently. I predict an increase in the number of interceptions he throws this year as opposed to last. Whats funny is that you mention in your comment about how Illinios almost beat Michigan last year, yet you fail to say anything about how they DID BEAT OHIO STATE!!!! Go post on an Ohio State Blog where someone might value your opinion.
2 months ago
I'm not so sure that followers of Michigan football are oblivious to what's been going on. On the contrary, interest in our program is at a peak due to the coaching transition and the excitement it brings along. You, Adam, make yourself look like an utter imbecile because you have no substance to anything you say. What are you basing your evaluation of our team on? That is a rhetorical (look that word up if you have to; you don't strike me as the sharpest tool in the shed) question, of course, because I know you truly have no idea what you're talking about. You obviously don't even know your OWN team that well if you think Tressel is the type of coach to run up the score on ANYONE.
Please, take your worthless drivel elsewhere.
from 2 months ago
I based my opinion of him running up the score based on the fact that he already doesn't like RR at all. He wants to send him a message.. and do it this year. Here is one thing I just want you to think of... this is why I say the things I say about Michigan right now.
Remember John Cooper... great coach for Ohio State but couldn't win the big games remember?.. He was not a Big 10 guy. He did not understand the magnitude of the Ohio State and Michigan rivalry and choked everytime they played. Michigan just hired a man exactly like Cooper. He doesn't understand Big 10 football.. he doesn't understand the tradition and he doesn't understand the rivalry. You can sit there and insult my intelligence.. that's fine. I understand your probably pretty upset about what is about to occur this next season with your football team. And don't get me totally wrong either... RR will turn the program around. I'm simply saying he won't win the big games in Michigan because he is the next coming of John Cooper. I'm also not saying that this years Ohio State team is going to be unstoppable either. On paper they are.. but I could see them losing 2-3 games if certain things do not go their way. But the one thing that is going to happen is the Michigan getting a beat down at the shoe this year. I'll leave this little comment area.. hope you guys enjoy your losing season... sure hope you can pull off a win or two before you face us... otherwise it won't be as fun watching... wait yes it will.
about 1 month ago
In defense of Cooper, he was a very good college coach - had success at Tulsa, Arizona State and Ohio State - but true, didn't have equal success vs. Buckeye's chief rival Michigan, and somehow since Buckeye fans have short term memory issues and can't recall facts prior to the 2000 season, will allow the losses to the Wolverines to define Cooper. And for the record, Cooper's record in big games was very good, particularly versus ranked opponents.
The interesting thing about John Cooper, that many but not all Buckeye fans are too arrogant to admit, is that Ohio State was not Cooper's first choice coaching job, nor his dream job. His dream job would have been coaching at his alma mater, Iowa State, but Dan McCarney got the job (and now Gene Chizik, former Texas DC).
As far as Rich Rodriguez being the next John Cooper, can you cite some supportive evidence to such a wild claim other than your obvious self-serving wishful thinking that Michigan football will be horrible in the future and forever? No one wants to insult anyone's intelligence here, but please don't insult others either that the football will bounce in every single direction accept Michigan's.
from about 1 month ago
Dude I never said it was Coopers only coaching job..... and he did not play good in big games either. Cooper was a great coach man.. I'm not denying that... the fact that he couldn't play the big game is what makes Ohio State fans want to forget all about him though. The man only won against Michigan 2 times in his 13 years with Ohio State... the man went to 11 Bowl games.... know how many he won... 3. Don't sit there and say he was a big game coach. Nobody can keep a coaching job at any school only beating their rival two times in thirteen years and only winning 3 bowls out of 11...
I already stated every reason that RR won't ultimately succeed at Michigan. I never said he won't be an ok coach after a few years... but like I said.. comparing him to Cooper.. he doesn't understand what this rivalry means.. nor does he quite understand how important winning the game is. On top of that he has never been a great recruiter other than getting Pat White, Noel Devine and Steve Slaton. I personally hate Rich Rod but i know he is a good coach... he just isn't in a good position at Michigan.. there is a good chance that he doesn't succeed in the Big 10... regardless of what people think the Big 10 is a tough conference to play in.... and a hell of a lot tougher than what he is used to in the Big East.
about 1 month ago
Adam,
Unfortunately (or fortunately), hating a guy(Rich Rodriguez) doesn't automatically doom him to certain failure. I mean, if only that were the case, where would Woody Hayes be today? Probably not in the record books.
In my view there's just no evidence to support the notion that Rich Rodriguez doesn't understand the OSU-Michigan rivalry or how important winning the game is. While OC at Clemson, they were 2-0-0 vs. rivalry South Carolina. WVU was 4-3 vs. rival Pitt. He hasn't even coached a single game at UM yet. If, after 2 to 4 years with Michigan is 1-3-0 or 0-4-0 vs. the Buckeyes with an I-just-don't-care-anymore ridiculous margin of victory for the Bucks in each game, then OK, you'd be 100% correct and I'd be wrong.
And your claim that RR has never been a great recruiter is not accurate in my opinion. By Michigan or OSU standards do you mean "never been great"? Or by WVU, Clemson Tulane standards? By Michigan historic standards I would say he's doing ok for himself (at least as good as Carr) having not coached a single game for Michigan. For example, if we were to look at Michigan's 2009 class year-to-date and compare it with OSU's 2009 class year-to-date (June 2008), OSU's class has 3.79 national rating stars on average across 22 recruits. Michigan's has 3.77 rating stars across 11 recruits. Not a huge delta. It's tool early in the game to be suggesting that the sky is falling in Ann Arbor on the issue of recruiting. I don't have to mention that despite the announcement of RR as the new UM coach in Decmeber, Michigan retained many of its original recruits for 2008. Ohio State has a top 10 class for 2009 almost in the bag. We'll see by February where Michigan's class lands nationally, but I, for one, am very pleased with RR's recruiting progress thus far, particularly in Ohio, where Michigan has raided talent with pride for years under Bo, Mo and Carr.
And finally, I'm not sold on the idea that "the country boy from West Virginia" just "don't git it", i.e. doesn't understand smashmouth Big Ten football compared to the Big East. Every single place RR has coached he has been successful and with far less talent than Michigan or any comparble Big Ten team has possessed historically. OSU found a great coach in Tressel who coached at Ohio St. before and had tremendous success at YSU afterward. The idea that you have to have been "in the rivalry" to understand and succeed in it, is an awkward argument to make in RR's case or for any coach for that matter.
I do agree with you however, that there is a lot of irrational exhuberance in Ann Arbor about Rich Rodriguez and the UM football program for 2008. I can't recall a UM football season where there were this many uncertainties and still so much hype. That's because coaching changes at UM are about as common as losing football seasons. RR has not really proven anything yet. He has already expressed very cautious optimism about Michigan's prospects this fall and that this year will be a year of adjustment. So I can see why those that hate him are cheerleading his downfall. But it doesn't make it so.
After Tressel destroyed Michigan on national TV in 2001 IN ANN ARBOR (argghh!), I still cheered for OSU to beat Oklahoma State in the Alamo bowl, and I cheered for the Buckeyes to slap Notre Stain.
Give RR a chance! You just might love him half as much as you loved Lloyd Carr! :)
about 1 month ago
There are no statistical numbers to prove to you.. you obviously aren't seeing that point im spitting out to you.
You clearly didn't read everything I wrote if your claiming i said he wouldn't be a good coach. I did however say there is a chance he may not succeed... as that can be said for any new coach at any team. I really don't think he is better off in Michigan than he was at WVU. His offensive mind is great but I don't see the offense taking off until maybe 3 or 4 years into his career at Michigan. I said I hated the man but i said he was a good coach at the same time.. so i was never saying me hating him is the reason he won't succeed.
Regardless of anything you say... you know this is a different brand of football for RR that he has never played before. Any coach can coach in divison 2.. or be an assistant at Tulane and make a name for themselves.. he is playing with the big boys now. When I was talking in terms of recruiting I was talking about what he grabbed while at WVU. If he can follow up this years class with another good one I may change my mind on how his recruiting... but as of right now this Michigan class he got with the help of Lloyd is the best class he has ever recruited (but with help from Lloyd). The Ohio State Michigan rivalry IS without a doubt something that the head coach has to understand to succeed in. As I stated before Cooper didn't quite get it.. he knew it was a big rivalry but he didn't quite understand how to play that game. For your sake I hope your man gets it.. for my sake I hope he is another Cooper... great coach until the game really matters. But as you stated you were cheering for Ohio State in the bowl games I too root for Michigan in bowl games and was as happy as any Michigan fan when they beat Florida last year.. even though Michigan won that game against the fastest team in the SEC.. the SEC fans still call the Big 10 too slow and overrated as if it never happend...
If RR is half as good to me as Lloyd Carr has been the last 7 years... I will love him more than I loved Lloyd!
25 days ago
You sure talk a lot of smack Adam. Good luck to your Buckeyes. They'll have a great team this year. Hopefully for your sake Pryor will replace Boeckman as soon as possible. It was painful watching him bite it whenever pressured (see Ohio State's last three games of the season last year). To refute what you've been saying, Michigan isn't far behind Wisconsin if at all. Michigan will have a better defense than Wiscy and who knows how far behind the offense will be? It may look comparable to the Badger's though because Michigan will be deep at running back, have a couple solid receivers/tight ends, a big offensive line (not that it's fair to compare it to Wiscy's because of they have no game time experience), and a questionable quarterback who will probably be ranked higer nationally than Wiscy's but doesn't fit the system as well. I don't think Michigan's offense will be as good as Wisconsin's, but it might be as far as the offense to defense ratio is concerned (Michigan's offense:Wisconsin's defense=Wisconsin's offense:Michigan's defense). The Wisconsin game last year was a lot closer than the score would suggest as Wisconsin pulled away from a horribly injured Michigan squad in the 4th. Michigan's offense (I don't think/hope) isn't as bad as everyone thinks it's going to be and their defense is better than people are projecting.
On a side note, did you or anyone notice that Michigan was actually faster than Florida last year and how it wasn't speed that beat Ohio State against LSU, but physicality and incompetent quarterback play? I think Ohio State will be great next year, and I like them better than either Georgia, Florida or Auburn. Georgia will have a tough offense with a fairly inexperienced quarterback and running back and a decent but not great defense. Florida will have no defense again and all Ohio State has to do is send enough guys to make Tebow one-dimensional and play a shallow cover 2 to take away the underneath routes. Tebow doesn't have the arm strength to consistently complete the deep outs and fades and what not. Plus, OSU has pretty good cover corners. Ohio State has to worry about USC because they own the Big Ten and OSU has been exposed to physical running teams and fast defenses.
write a new comment