11. Atlanta Hawks:
As it happens with many teams whose core centers around young talent, eventually you are going to have a season where some of that talent have expired contracts and then the choices need to be made.
For Atlanta the choices aren't as bad as many think.
Do they keep Josh Smith or Josh Childress? Both of whom will ask for big contracts but are restricted free agents.
Do they bother resigning Salim Stoudamire and Mario West? Both of whom have shown potential but really haven't made an impact in Atlanta.
What the Hawks do know is that they have two capable point guards in Mike Bibby and Acie Law.
They have one bonafide superstar shooting guard in the likes of Joe Johnson, who could become one of the most unstoppable players in the league next season.
They have a logjam at small forward where Marvin Williams, Josh Smith and Josh Childress all reside.
A legitimate post threat in the better than advertised Al Horford.
Finally, a competent center in Zaza Pachulia who may not set the roof on fire with his play, but compared to the rest of the centers in the Eastern conference, he stacks up pretty well.
The only potential thorn in this off season could come from what to do with Childress and/or Smith. It seems high unlikely they can keep both players, and its practically idiocy to do so considering they both play the same position and they also have Marvin Williams.
So in the interest of choosing one, the Hawks have the big decision. They could keep Josh Smith, who is the better of the two Josh's, but he will most likely demand a maximum contract or something close to that.
Or, they could keep Josh Childress, a lesser player, but the a player who will not demand the same contract numbers Smith will, freeing up some cap space for Atlanta to make a run at some depth with a mid-level player.
My advice, sign them both, and deal Josh Childress before the season begins.
Why? Josh Smith is a better player and worthy of a maximum contract, I think he proved that in the playoffs. He is still very young and if he continues to progress and mature will be a one man wrecking crew in this league.
Then, the Hawks can turn and deal Childress to a team that is in need a solid swing man, maybe to the Cavaliers for Varejao and a late draft pick. They desperately need depth up front. Solomon Jones will not cut it, and Shelden Williams looks like a bust.
Varejao would provide them with defense, and another able body to clog to paint, something that could elicit a rise up the standings in the Eastern Conference.
12. Houston Rockets:
I do not envy anyone in this organization, from the management to the players, because this team is lost. It has absolutely no identity.
The team has two stars, the brighter one is Tracy McGrady, while the lesser one is Yao Ming. The problem is they play such different styles of basketball.
With Yao on the court, the Rockets tend to run a more slowed down, half-court offense. But with Yao injured or on the bench and Carl Landry in his stead, the Rockets tend to let Rafer Alston and McGrady push the tempo.
The problem is that when they play either style they are good, but they are never great. They were solid with Yao in the early season, but rattled of 30 straight games without him, only to be pushed right out of the playoffs by Utah.
The thing is, the moves they make this off season will have a direct impact on what style of play they utilize next season.
There is no way the Rockets bring back Steve Francis, too much money, almost zero game left in his body.
I seriously doubt they bring back the aging Dikembe Mutombo also. He is still serviceable, but the Rockets probably aren't willing to stake their depth in the front court on his old knees.
Then we come to Steve Novak and Carl Landry, the restricted free agents. The Rockets have a team option on Novak which I expect them to exercise if only for depth and cost efficiency reasons.
But Landry could receive some nice offers based on the way he played this season. The Rockets need to decide if they want to keep a young talent like Landry, and remodel their team by trading Yao. Or they can dump Landry, keep Yao, and try to stick to their original formula.
The cap room they create with the departures of Francis and Mutombo could turn into a pretty decent upgrade up front over Chuck Hayes, or it could turn into a small forward to complement Shane Battier and McGrady. This remains to be seen, but for the Rockets to succeed next season, they need to find an identity first.
13. Toronto Raptors:
The big question surrounding the Raptors this off season is how they plan to deal with the logjam at point guard. T.J. Ford was the starter for most of the season and he performed pretty well despite missing another 30 games because of his run-in with Al Horford early in the season.
In his absence, Jose Calderon stepped into the role and immediately became not just a productive point guard, but a really good point guard, averaging over eight assists per game. But now, after his breakout season he is a restricted free agent, and he is causing the Raptors some headaches.
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Calderon has made it very clear to Bryan Colangelo and the rest of the Raptors front office that he wants to be starting or else he doesn't want to play for Toronto. He has a legitimate point seeing as he could be starting for about 25 other teams in the league.
The general consensus around the league seems to be that the Raptors have no intention of letting Calderon go, and have been shopping T.J. Ford to teams in need of a point guard. It's really a toss up between these two players as far as skill and impact are concerned. But, trading Ford, whose contract is four times that of Calderon's, will not only leave the team with flexibility to sign a good role player, but also hopefully receive a good player in return for Ford.
The Raptors just recently bought out the contract of Jorge Garbajosa, who suffered a broken leg that most likely has ended his career not only with the Raptors, but in basketball in general. He was worth about $4 million dollars as well and should free up a little space.
The other restricted free agent for the Raptors is Carlos Delfino, who will be let go if someone gives him a good offer, but could return to the Raptors and provide depth behind either Calderon or Ford.
The two unrestricted free agents are Primoz Brezec and Rasho Nesterovic, the latter of whom has a player option for next year. Expect Brezec, who gets paid close to $3 million dollars per year, to be sent packing. Nesterovic will most likely not get another contract worth around $8 million a year, so expect him not to opt out of his contract, and to play another season with the Raptors, who are still in dire need of big bodies.
The last person the Raptors will deal with is Jamario Moon, who has limited salary protection. Expect the Raptors to try and lock him up to a reasonable three or four year contract after a fantastic rookie season. He adds toughness to the front line that is in serious need of it after Bargnani and Nesterovic.
The Raptors have a significant chance to improve if they can deal Ford. They will be able to get two new players for Ford, and likely both of them will be contributors. If Bargnani plays better, Bosh and Calderon continue to progress, and they get concerted efforts from Kris Humphries and Joey Graham, this team could make strides in the rapidly improving Eastern Conference.
14. Dallas Mavericks:
Ahh yes! The debacle that has become the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks this off season will be doing a lot of remodeling...of their bench.
The Mavericks have seven unrestricted free agents, one restricted free agent, and one player with limited salary protection. Unfortunately for the Mavericks, the highest paid free agent to be is Devean George, who makes just over $2 million dollars. So even with so many players with expiring contracts, the Mavericks still don't have cap flexibility.
The other unrestricted free agents are Juwan Howard, Antione Wright, Malik Allen, Eddie Jones (player option), Jamaal Magloire, and Tyronn Lue.
The restricted free agent is Jose Juan Barea, and the player with limited salary protection is Brandon Bass.
The players they will most assuredly not be hanging onto include; Devean George, who after the whole Kidd fiasco has worn out his welcome. Juwan Howard, who should probably just retire at this point. Malik Allen, who is useless regardless of whether he is on the team or not.
The players who the Mavericks will try to hold onto are Brandon Bass, who has become a solid player up front for Dallas. Eddie Jones will probably be back as well since I would expect him not to opt out of his contract at his age. Finally Antione Wright is young, and very talented, and the Mavericks love their athletic swing men, so I expect them to do everything to resign him.
The reason the Mavericks are such a debacle right now is because they are really old.
Jason Kidd, Eric Dampier, Jerry Stackhouse, Jason Terry, and Dirk Nowitski are all in their early to mid 30s, and they are all locked up with big contracts.
They are still a playoff team with all of those players, but I just don't think without an infusion of younger blood, and new talent, that the Mavericks will be able to move past the Hornets or the Lakers.
Avery Johnson was not the problem, and Rick Carlisle is not the solution, they may be at least a year or two away from being able to try and rebuild this team, trading Devin Harris was one of the dumber moves they have made in some time now.
15. Washington Wizards:
I saved the Wizards and the Nuggets for last because they are without a doubt the two most intriguing teams this post season with apologies to the Suns.
The two biggest names on the Washington team are both free agents. Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison are both unrestricted free agents this season, and Washington most likely can't sign them both.
Out of the two it is no secret that Arenas is the most likely to be putting on a different jersey next season, but the question surrounding Agent Zero is whether he will opt out of his contract (he has an early termination option) or whether he will let the Wizards try to trade him and get value back.
Jamison will most likely try to be resigned. He was the Wizards most consistent performer all season, and the Wizards will be hard pressed to try and find a replacement for his production at the power or small forward.
The Wizards appear to be moving towards the future. Andray Blatche should continue to develop into a poor man's Kevin Garnett with the skill set that he has at his disposal. Combine Blatche with Brendan Haywood, who is nothing more than a space eater, and the Wizards have a solid front court.
Deshawn Stevenson might be a little too loud at times, but he is a good defender, and a good basketball player. Caron Butler is becoming a good second or third scoring option, and is as reliable as anyone else in the Eastern Conference at giving his team 16 and 7 every game.
The wild card is if the Wizards can find a taker for Arenas. Agent Zero will command a large asking price from the Wizards for the rights to his services, and if they do manage to trade Arenas, the Wizards could end up with enough good players that they can form a deep back court behind Antonio Daniels and Stevenson, and probably grab a pick or two for the future.
16. Denver Nuggets:
The most intriguing team from last season's playoffs will be the Nuggets this off season.
Not only is Allen Iverson, one of their stars, a free agent this off season, but so are three extremely intriguing and complementary players the Nuggets used extensively during the season. Throw in the myriad of trade rumors surrounding Marcus Camby and Carmelo Anthony, and you have the most fun team to watch during the summer.
Starting with the restricted free agents, the Nuggets have Yakhouba Diawara and J.R. Smith. Diawara is a throw away player, someone whose impact in free agency and with the Nuggets is almost non-existent. But J.R. Smith is on the opposite end of the spectrum.
Smith is supremely gifted offensively, and has the shooting range, strength, and fearlessness to be an unstoppable scorer in this league. That being said, his motivation is next to nothing, as evidenced by the disappearing act he pulled during some of the games, and his defense has also yet be found.
Since George Karl is still the coach, I don't think J.R. Smith will be a Nugget next season. It's no secret that his attitude and loud mouth kept him in Karl's doghouse for most of the season, and I think Karl wants nothing to do with him anymore despite his prodigious talents.
Cleveland might be a good fit for him as he could eventually become the player Danny Ferry envisioned Larry Hughes being when Ferry signed Hughes two seasons ago.
The unrestricted free agents are also an interesting group.
Anthony Carter is an old, veteran back up point guard, but he was also a fantastic player to have on the floor when Iverson needed a break, averaging 8 points and close to 6 assists per game. If the Nuggets can get him under contract for around the same amount of money they had him for this season, there is no way he plays for another team, he is just too valuable.
Eduardo Najera was an energy player this year for the Nuggets. One of Karl's favorites, Najera developed an outside game to help increase his scoring chances from just garbage buckets. He is somewhat of a tweener however, and his effort just doesn't make up for the glaring defensive deficiencies he has playing power forward. He also earned close to $5 million this season, so expect him to be somewhere else next season.
Finally we get to maybe the biggest name to possibly hit the free agent market this season. Allen Iverson has an early termination option in his contract, and if he so chooses, he can test the open market and see who is interested. The problem is that most teams this free agency don't have the type of money to spend that Iverson will be looking for.
The best move for the Nuggets, Iverson, and any interested team, is to involve AI in a sign and trade deal where the Nuggets can sign him, unload him to an interested team, and receive compensation in the form of some decent players.
AI will have the chance to maybe play for a contender, depending on the offer, rather than the Grizzlies if he just tested the waters. Something I am sure AI is very interested in doing, frankly I just don't see him trying very hard in Memphis.
Also the interested team can get one of the premier scorers and guards in the entire league, without mortgaging their future to the hilt. They can unload contracts and youngsters to make the deal work, and if a team is serious about making a playoff push, they can get one of the most driven and successful players in all of basketball
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5 months ago
"I do not envy anyone in this organization, from the management to the players, because this team is lost. It has absolutely no identity.
The team has two stars, the brighter one is Tracy McGrady, while the lesser one is Yao Ming. The problem is they play such different styles of basketball.
With Yao on the court, the Rockets tend to run a more slowed down, half-court offense. But with Yao injured or on the bench and Carl Landry in his stead, the Rockets tend to let Rafer Alston and McGrady push the tempo.
The problem is that when they play either style they are good, but they are never great. They were solid with Yao in the early season, but rattled of 30 straight games without him, only to be pushed right out of the playoffs by Utah."
Have you watched the Rockets at all this season, or the previous three? The Rockets lack many things but an identity is not one of them. They are one of maybe six teams that don't need to find themselves.
Jeff Van Gundy turned them into a fierce defensive team and Rick Adelman continued that identity while finding ways to get them easier baskets. They are far from lost.
When their scoring average rose after Yao Ming's injury, it was stifling defense that led to easier offense not the other way around, that allowed them to win 22 games in a row--second most in NBA history.
McGrady pushing the tempo?? I wish.
Too often, T-Mac is the guy ignoring the other guy running to the basket. He walks the ball up the court instead of running, then passing for the easy lay up.
The Rockets have three chief problems:
1) Their offense is based on a drive/post and kick game. If you're going to take almost 25 threes per contest, it helps to have guys who can knock them down more than once in 18 tries. They don't have enough shooters.
2) The Rockets have a fradulent superstar who plays with heart and championship drive once a month. He talks about the right things but rarely does them. He wants all the fruits that come with an NBA title and MVP trophy--also known as respect and benefit of the doubt--without doing the work. Hence, he is 0-for-7 in the first round, 0-for-3 with the Rockets.
3) The Rockets superstar who does care, also the best center in the NBA, cannot stay healthy for an 82 game season and playoff run. His presence may not have changed the outcome of the Utah series but at least he wants it--more than almost any other NBA player.
The Dallas Mavericks--now there's a team facing an identity crisis. An NBA scout said of them during their first round series with New Orleans: "they have no idea what the hell they're doing."
The Mavs troubles have very little to do with age. If age prevents you from winning a championship, then why did the Boston Celtics, with seven players over age 30, just win the Larry O' Brien trophy?
It's Nowitzki, not Nowitski. Though, with all that playoff futility, some skiing might do Dirk some good.
The Mavs are a discombobulated jumpshooting team. When things start going badly, they resort to bad jumpshots instead of attacking the basket and earning free throws. Josh Howard telling the world that he smokes weed in the offseason did not help matters.
The Raptors are a stink defensive team and they will need a lot more than "just a few moves" to become anything more than a first round doormat. They need some major moves if they want Chris Bosh to stick around.
I would hardly call the Washington Wizards and Enver Nuggets' situations intriguing. Talk about two less talented players from being the next Knicks. These two teams are a disaster. The star players are unhappy, and in Gilbert Arenas' case, the team plays better without him.
At first, I rejected the better without Arenas notion, but I can no longer do it. When he does not play, the Wizards move the ball, get decent shots and you actually see some players in a defensive stance.
When Arenas plays, the Wizards' defense is a tad better than the kind you and I play and that's not good.
The stats do lie sometimes. The defensive efficiency ratings for both squads are top 15 but watch them play efense for a few minutes and you can see why the numbers are bogus.
I would say the Rockets are head and shoulders above those other teams. They have a foundation, an identity. Either they will get the additional players to make it work or they won't.
Who knows--maybe the Yao-T-Mac pairing will end up being one of the worst in team history? They play well together, but that's the problem--injuries. They are rarely together on the court at the same time.
5 months ago
Look at the defensive ratings from this season, the Raptors are in the top 15 in the entire league. Thats not crappy defense.
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