2009 NFL: Five Teams That Aren't as Good as You Think

(Sorry, Favre-haters, but the Vikings don't make the list.)

Four games remain in this 2009 NFL season, which means we're less than a month away from figuring out who belongs in the chase for the Lombardi Trophy, and who never really stood a chance.

Writers and fans alike have been racking their brains during the pre-season: assessing their team's draft picks and off-season moves, wondering if certain issues or situations will cripple their team or put them over the top, etc.

The truth is, regardless of how much planning or thought goes into guessing the top teams, we're almost always wrong. That's why the sports gods invented late-season write-ups, so we can dissect teams and re-think their value or potential.

Without stating the absolute obvious teams like the fallen Pittsburgh Steelers or the no-longer Wild Card threatening Houston Texans, I've compiled a list of five teams still in the playoff chase– but aren't as good as they think.

5. New England Patriots (7-5)

The Patriots traded away their run defense and effective pass rush when they sent Richard Seymour to the Oakland Raiders, and really haven't been the same on defense since.

They simply aren't a dominant team on either side of the ball, and while they definitely possess the talent to compete with the likes of Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker, they can't necessarily compete at the highest of levels.

After getting absolutely trounced by the undefeated New Orleans Saints, and then blowing a close game against the Miami Dolphins, the Patriots are hanging by the skin of their teeth to a one game lead atop their division.

Their cakewalk schedule the rest of the way suggest they can win out and still reach the playoffs, but with season series spits with both the Jets and Dolphins, (both are 6-6), there is no room left for error for a team that has been under-performing all season.

4. Dallas Cowboys (8-4)

By now, all Dallas fans know all too well what the December fade is, and how Tony Romo and co. simply come up short this time of year.

The trouble with Dallas this season is that they just don't commit to what they're good at. They have a mammoth offensive line and three solid running backs, yet all they do is throw the ball.

And when you have a guy (Romo) who isn't particularly on top of his game during this time of year (save for last week), that's just about the worst idea a coach could come up with.

More importantly than just this month, however, is the constant disregard that the coaching staff has had toward it's commitment to the rushing attack, as well as the team's overall complacency in certain weeks.

They allowed the Kansas City Chiefs to take them to overtime, flat-out failed to show-up against the Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers, and allowed a not-so-good New York Giants team (are they good?) to sweep them.

The late-season slide isn't going away folks, and it keeps on ticking with another loss against the San Diego Chargers this week.

3. Denver Broncos (8-4)

Sorry, Denver fans, but it's time you faced the truth.

Your team started hot, tickled and teased you, and then dropped four straight.

Now they're back to teasing you again with so-called dominant performances against inferior New York and Kansas City squads.

And now this team has the entire fan base thinking upset over the Indianapolis Colts (ironic I mention them....)

They're only a game back behind the Chargers (tied in then season series) from the division, so they still have a very good chance at making the playoffs.

But when's the last time a really good team lost four straight games in a season and actually did something in the playoffs?

You can bring forth all the arguments you want, but this team will be lucky to get to 10-6.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (9-3)

The Bengals are in a perfect place right now. Carson Palmer and the rest of his teams feel vindicated after assuring top sports writers in the off-season that this team would "surprise" some people.

True, their 9-3 record and place atop the AFC North is fairly shocking, but is it really that impressive? A quick glance at a few of their games says, no, no it isn't.

The Bengals have a tendency this season to play inferior teams much too closely, as they battled well into the 4th quarter with the likes of the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns, while actually falling to the Giant-killing Oakland Raiders.

And their wins? Two have come against the Pittsburgh Steelers, both of which were extremely close and now don't look as impressive after the Steelers most recent loss extended their losing streak to five games.

The Bengals also swept the Baltimore Ravens, who actually have played almost every opponent very closely, but still only stand in at 6-6.

Will the Bengals make the playoffs? Yes. Hell, they're going to win their division. But a first round exit of the playoffs (unless they get the bye, of course) could easily be in the works.

1. Indianapolis Colts (12-0)

One could easily throw in the Giants, Jaguars, and possible even suggest the Packers, Vikings, and Eagles are all over-rated or aren't as good as we think.

I'd agree on the Giants and Jaguars, as they're just too easy to call. They're both 7-5, but they're both destined for first round exits, even if they do make the playoffs.

But our final selection for this article is the undefeated Indianapolis Colts, and despite the many angry comments that might spark, the facts point to this team is quite over-rated.

Look at the history. Aside from last year, this team ALWAYS does this. They win a ton of games in a row early, and then die down to a 13-3 or 12-4 finish. They rest their players, and then forget how to compete for four full quarters.

But it's more than just that.

Peyton Manning might be a candidate for the league MVP, but he's also a candidate for a broken back for carrying this team in every single game.

He has had to lead his team back from countless deficits, man against inferior opponents, and has had very little (if any) support from his rush attack.

That, combined with a slightly over-rated defense, as well as a pass defense that has been decimated by injuries, and this team is headed for a collapse.

Don't buy it? Watch them as they rest their starters and finished 14-2, and then lose in their first playoff game like last year.

Two things tell me this team is in trouble. First, if you can't run the ball in the post-season, you can't win the big games. It just doesn't happen.

Second, and most importantly, it doesn't matter how many games you win in the regular season. Last year's 8-8 Chargers team showed these very Colts that fact first hand. And we're about to see it again.

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