College Football: Predicting the 2008 FCS Upsets, Part II

Quite simply, Duke has been the punching bag of not just the ACC, but of the entire college football community. Things could change sooner rather than later however for the Blue Devils, as famed offensive mind David Cutcliffe comes in to take charge of a program which has more potential than most people realize.

He comes in at the right time too, as Duke returns 17 starters, including all of last year’s major statistical leaders. QB Thaddeus Lewis showed outstanding development last year from a woeful 2006, and should thrive under Cutcliffe’s tutelage, as should an up-and-coming group of receivers like potential All-ACC performer Eron Riley.

The offensive line is a constant concern however, as last year’s group (which also happened to be the entire 2006 group) allowed 45 sacks.

This year, they have to replace two starters, although the Blue Devils do get 10 back on defense, including a massive front four featuring DT Vince Oghobasse (6-foot-6, 310).

James Madison is a traditional FCS power which is usually competitive with FBS teams, including many from the Atlantic Coast conference. They did lose their opener to North Carolina last year, but held the Tar Heels to a paltry 2.9 yards per carry on the ground.

The Dukes are coming off an impressive 8-4 season in which their only FCS losses came to playoff bound teams (Richmond, Delaware, Appalachian State.) JMU lost those three games by a combined five points and should have beaten National Champion Appalachian State had it not been for a series of unfortunate events late in the game which sparked the Mountaineers to victory.

This year, James Madison returns a veteran squad of 15 returning starters including dual-threat quarterback Rodney Landers, who rushed and passed for over 1,000 yards last year.

The Dukes also welcome back four starting offensive lineman from a unit which allowed the fewest sacks in FCS play, to go along with two veteran tailbacks in Eugene Holloman (1085 yards in 2006) and Griff Yancy (688 yards, 6.3 average last year).

While they lose veteran safety Tony LeZotte on defense, JMU is still in relatively good shape, returning three starters from last year’s unit.  I like the way JMU matches up with Duke, which has traditionally struggled with rushing defense and rushing offense over the last few seasons.

Don’t get me wrong, Duke is definitely a team on their way up and, from a talent perspective, is much better than the vast majority of college football fans realize. But JMU is a talented and experienced FCS team with an “expect to win” mindset that doesn’t get left on the bus when they play FBS teams.

Duke dropped their 2006 opener to Richmond and likely will need some time to adjust to Cutliffe’s offense, which will demand more on Duke’s experienced but problem-ridden offensive line. Believe it or not, I think that Duke could be overconfident coming into this game, as the Blue Devils will be facing the prospect of four winnable home games right out of the starting gate.

One thing when dealing with traditional losing teams like Duke is that they tend to under-perform in new situations, and even though they may very well come out firing during the opening part of the season, they’ll have to deal with a brand-new monster; expectations.

Considering JMU’s proven offensive formula and some close losses to FCS superpowers last season this game looks like a legitimate toss-up.

We’re almost there! Expect my most likely FCS over FBS upsets by Friday!

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