After consecutive unimpressive cards that were mediocre at best, we are blessed with UFC 109. I have been looking forward to this card for some time. We have several good fights, one of which is a title match.
Penn and Sanchez are two of my favorite fighters. Their determination and intensity is off the charts. Rarely do we get to see two guys who absolutely love going to battle. Penn is coming off a dominating submission victory over the then #2 guy at 155, Kenny Florian. Penn has not lost at 155 since his 2002 loss to Jens Pulver. Sanchez is always impressive and has limitless energy. He’s riding a 4 fight win streak with his most recent victories over Guida and Stevenson. His only 2 losses were to Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck. If Sanchez is going to pull off the upset, I would imagine it would come in the first round. I would put Penn as the favorite 2 to 1.
Mir and Kongo are both coming off losses and if they hope to remain in the top echelon of heavyweights they need a win, big time. Mir is coming off a brutal loss to Lesnar who made Mir look like he was new to the sport. Prior to that Mir had won 3 in a row against Nogeuria, Lesnar (first fight), and Hardonk. Likewise, Kongo is coming off a loss to Velasquez and had previously won 3 in a row against Hardonk, Al Turk, and Dan Evenson. I see Mir taking this one via submission in the second round and put him at a 2.25x favorite.
Clay Guida and Kenny Florian are both coming off loses as well. Guida last lost to Sanchez in a brutal slugfest and Florian was dominated by Penn. The most impressive game Guida brings is his energy and his granite chin. He’s only managed to stop opponents in 2 of his 10 UFC bouts. Florian’s last fight was an embarrassing loss to Penn. Prior to that he had won 6 in a row over some good competition. Florian needs the win to get another crack at the tittle during the 2010 calendar year. Guida needs a win just to stay relevant in the division. I give Florian the nod at 2.25x favorite.
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