SEC Championship Game: The Ultimate Preview
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(Aaron Torres is a journalist whose work has been featured by Sports Illustrated as well as syndicated by AOL.com, USA Today Online, and Slam Online. To read this lengthy article in its entirety , please visit Aaron at his personal site, www.aarontorres-sports.com )
Alabama-Florida. Florida-Alabama. Two undefeated teams and a field full of future NFL superstars, all with one only one championship to be handed out.
And while this is shaping up to not only be the game of this year, but probably the best game in the last five years, it seems to me like not enough people are talking about it.
Which is why I’ve decided to preview this game, straight from the heart. There is no overt expert analysis here, or confusing computer simulations leading me to my conclusions.
It’s simply what I’ve seen with my own two eyes while watching entirely too much football over the last three months.
Here is, the Ultimate Preview of the 2009 SEC Championship game.
Enjoy!
Quarterback:
Clearly the advantage goes to Tim Tebow and Florida; I don’t think I’m breaking new ground here. He’s the greatest college football player of my lifetime and arguably the greatest winner too, with Maxim Magazine even naming him one of the “25 Hottest Bible Thumpers under 25,” in their May issue. (Ok I may have made that last part up).
But even with Tebow being Tebow, the SEC Championship quarterback derby isn’t as one-sided as you think.
No seriously, here me out.
With Tebow you have a great quarterback, but one that’s not going to challenge you downfield more than once or twice a game (That’s more his receiver’s fault than his), and isn’t going to beat you for huge gains with his legs. What he will do is hit his share of short and intermediate passes, and pick up a first down on the ground every time you give him three yards or less to get to the chains. That’s Tim Tebow in a nutshell.
Now, to Greg McElroy from Alabama. Like Tebow, he’s not going to beat you with really big plays downfield, unless there’s a blown coverage somewhere along the way. And with Florida possessing, in my opinion, the best group of defensive backs in college football, blown coverage’s aren’t going to happen. McElroy is also very un-Tebow like, because he is almost never, ever a threat to run the ball.
So what exactly will he do to you? McElroy will give you the old Alabama water torture, and complement his running game with quick passes, hitting slanting receivers as well as his tight ends, and running backs for short yardage. You might literally watch half of Alabama’s season without seeing McElroy hit one of his receivers for a 40-yard bomb, that’s just not the way he plays.
Look at last week’s winning drive against Auburn. McElroy was 7-8, with not a single pass going for more than nine yards. Julio Jones caught four of those passes, and his running backs combined to catch three. On the game, he completed 21 passes for 218 yards, just about 10 yards a completion, with just one play going for more than 15 yards. As we said with Tebow, that’s McElroy in a nutshell right there.
Again I’m not trying to say that McElroy is better than Tebow. He isn’t. But even with all his faults, McElroy has still become an exceptional quarterback…for this team.
McElroy is smart, checks down, and especially in the last few games simply doesn’t make mistakes (9:1 Touchdown to Interception ratio in November). Compare that with Tebow, who is supremely athletic, makes a few more mistakes because of his style of play, but will ultimately wear you down with the power running game, and kill you in short yardage situations.
Each is suited for their team’s style of play, and each has more or less mastered it in the last few weeks. The edge still goes to Tebow, but the margin isn’t quite as big as you might think.
Advantage: Florida
Defensive strength:
Look, I’m not going to try and sit here and tell you who has the better group; they’re ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in scoring defense in all of college football. Deciding which is “better,” is like asking Justin Timberlake who he enjoyed dating more, Scarlett Johansson or Jessica Biel. Who cares, it’s freakin’ Scarlett Johansson and Jessica Biel! The same with these two defenses, rather than try to decide which is actually better, can’t we just both agree their awesome?
Awesomeness aside, let’s look at the strengths of each.
For Florida, I truly, firmly believe it’s their unbelievable depth. There’s nobody even close right now. Think about it, over the course of the season, they’ve faced injury, suspension, legal matters, basically everything except deportation, and continue to just keep rolling.
Brandon Spikes is suspended? Where’s Dustin Doe? Dustin Doe isn’t playing well? Grab Ryan Stamper. A.J. Jones is hurt? Tell Brandon Hicks to get his helmet.And that’s just the linebackers.
Unbelievably, their defensive backfield is even deeper. Last weekend against Florida State they started five defensive backs—Joe Haden, Ahmad Black, Will Hill, Janoris Jenkins, and Major Wright. (By the way, don’t those guys just sound like football players? Will Hill. Major Wright. Those are guys I want on my team!) And those five don’t include Markihe Anderson who has started at various points in his career, and Wondy Pierre-Louis, a key special teams player. Basically, what I’m trying to say is that the group is really, really deep.
And because they’re so deep, it makes them the most effective blitzing team in college football. Think that’s why the Gators have the No. 1 ranked scoring defense and total defense in the sport?
Now I’m not going to sit here and pretend I understand Charlie Strong’s blitz packages because I don’t, and I doubt any fan watching for just 60 minutes every Saturday can either. But I do understand the basics of defensive football, and it seems to me that because of the overall speed and depth of the defensive back seven, they can literally blitz anyone, from anywhere at any time, because of it. That is truly an advantage and trait unique to Florida.
Let’s move to Alabama. They’re definitely not as deep as Florida across the board, and they’re not as experienced. But what makes them so good is that they know their assignments, and almost always stick to them.
Now, I know what you’re thinking: Umm, Aaron, did you happen to catch the Alabama-Auburn game, when Auburn scored two touchdowns on two plays of 65 or more yards? Umm, yes, yes I did, but thanks for reminding me.
I also think it was an anomaly. Why? Because Auburn was playing against their biggest rival, who was coming off a bye week, with one of the best offensive minds in football on their sidelines, and with nothing to lose. You knew they were going to throw something at the Tide they’d never seen before. I personally predicted it before the game. And I’m nothing more than a guy who watches too much football.
It’s the only way to go for a big play against Alabama, throw something at them they’ve never seen before. And here’s my question, with Florida’s season and a National Championship on the line, do you really think they’re going to try running double-reverses and halfback passes? I don’t either. This means that if Florida does stick to what has made them successful, it plays right into Alabama’s hands as a disciplined and mistake-free defense.
So after all that, what does this matchup basically hinge on? Florida’s speed and aggression, against Alabama’s smarts and technique. (Not that Alabama won’t play fast and aggressive, and Florida won’t be smart and technical, just that those are the traits which made the other successful.)
Still too close to call right? Well there’s one thing that tips this matchup in favor of Alabama, and that’s the absence of Carlos Dunlap.
I’m not going to sit here and rant and rave about Dunlap. We all have our opinion on him, and my guess is that it’s all pretty much the same. But the impact that he would have had on this game is undeniable.
If you’re a loser like me, and caught Sportscenter Tuesday morning, Todd McShay did an excellent breakdown of how Florida was using Dunlap in their blitzes. Mainly they would line Spikes up next to him, leaving each of the two covered by one lineman. And I don’t care who your linemen are, you aren’t blocking either with just one guy.
So how did Florida State adjust? By bringing extra protection, this then left the defensive end on the other side, Jermaine Cunningham, with just one guy blocking him. Simple, but efficient, right?
Well, without Dunlap on Saturday, who knows what Florida will do in their blitzes. Will they be as likely to take chances with Spikes on the line of scrimmage? I’m not sure. But even if they do, how can whoever is replacing Dunlap have the same effect he did? They can’t.
Now over the course of this year, I haven’t been crazy about Carlos. At times he’s seemed disinterested, and if Tuesday morning’s incident proved anything, it’s that he’s undeniably selfish. But he’s also talented, and there’s no doubt he would have impacted this game. And because of it, I give the slight defensive advantage to Alabama.
Defensive Strength: Alabama
Kicking Game:
In my Week 11 College Football Preview , I had this to say about Alabama kicker Leigh Tiffin:
"Finally, here’s the deal. We know Ingram, Terrence Cody, Rolando McClain, and probably Javier Arenas are in line for some hardware at the end of this season. But here’s my question: Is Alabama undefeated without Leigh Tiffin?
I’m not saying a kicker should win the Heisman or anything, just that he went 5/5 on field goals against Ole Miss (22-3 win), 4/4 against Tennessee (12-10), and 3-3 against LSU (24-15).
I think it’s time to show the little guy a lot of love."
Since that time, Tiffin has made four of five kicks, his one miss from 42 yards against Auburn. For what it’s worth, Tiffin hasn’t missed a kick from inside the 40 since Labor Day Weekend, and four of his last six were from 40 or more yards.
As for Florida’s Caleb Sturgis, he’s made just 19 of 26 field goals, but in his defense, three of those misses have come from 50 or more yards. His most recent shank of relevance was a 29-yarder against South Carolina, although with just a few minutes left in a game that’d already been decided, it didn’t carry a ton of importance.
So is there really an advantage? Having seen most of each team’s games, I’d give the slight edge to Tiffin.
Because of the way that Alabama’s offense is structured, his kicks just seem more important. The Tide obviously doesn’t beat Tennessee without him, and the LSU and Ole Miss games are definitely way more interesting.
Basically, Tiffin has been slightly better, in more pressure-packed situations. That’s why I take him over Sturgis.
Advantage: Alabama
Return Game:
Alright folks, get excited, because I’m about to do my best Hubie Brown impression right now. Ready?
Here goes: “Javier Arenas is simply the single greatest game changing special teams player we have in our sport right now.” How’d I do?
With Arenas, we can look at the record books and say he’s the best, but I hate using statistics to measure a guy. I’d prefer to watch the games. And if you watched last Friday against Auburn, Arenas had two major returns (one on a punt and one on a kickoff), when Alabama needed them most.
Combined, they got Alabama mentally back in the game; something Arenas’ returns have been doing his whole career. Which is why if I had to choose one return guy to start my team with, I’d take him.
With that being said, Florida’s Brandon James isn’t too shabby himself. After all, the guy does have the SEC record for kickoff return yardage. And surprisingly, he’ll be going against a team that is one of the worst kickoff coverage units in the country, allowing 25.5 yards a kick. Which is very, very un-Alabama, if you don’t mind me saying.
On the other hand, Florida gives up just 20.25 yards a kick, and a staggering 3.25 yards per punt.
So in comparing these two, you’re either going to take a guy who I consider to be slightly more skilled against a way better coverage unit, or just a barely less skilled guy going against much better coverage.
Honestly, looking at this one in an unbiased way, I think Arenas is more likely to break a big one, but James will likely consistently put his team in better field position throughout the game.
Give me Brandon James in this situation, by the smallest of margins.
Advantage: Florida
(This is just part of Aaron's SEC Championship game preview . To read the rest of this article, including what he believes to be the biggest matchup in this game, as well as his ultimate winner, please visit him at www.aarontorres-sports.com )
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