Arkansas St. (-6.0) 31 WESTERN KENTUCKY 23
My math model favors Arkansas State by 7 1/2 points with freshman Ryan Aplin at quarterback in place of injured starter Corey Leonard. Aplin has played extensively the last few games and is only 0.2 yards per pass play worse throwing the ball than the overall rating for the team and Aplin's compensated running stats are the same as Leonard's. Aplin, however, does throw more interceptions. Western Kentucky is still looking for their first win of the season, but winless teams that are 0-7 or worse are just 35-64-2 ATS when not an underdog of more than 10 points, so I have no problem leaning with the Red Wolves at -7 or less in this one.
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