Dr. Bob's Betting Advice For ARKANSAS STATE (-6) @ WESTERN KENTUCKY

Robert StollCorrespondent IDecember 3, 2009

Arkansas St. (-6.0) 31 WESTERN KENTUCKY 23

Over/Under Total: 52.5
04:00 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Dec-03

My math model favors Arkansas State by 7 1/2 points with freshman Ryan Aplin at quarterback in place of injured starter Corey Leonard. Aplin has played extensively the last few games and is only 0.2 yards per pass play worse throwing the ball than the overall rating for the team and Aplin's compensated running stats are the same as Leonard's. Aplin, however, does throw more interceptions. Western Kentucky is still looking for their first win of the season, but winless teams that are 0-7 or worse are just 35-64-2 ATS when not an underdog of more than 10 points, so I have no problem leaning with the Red Wolves at -7 or less in this one.

Read more on my website www.drbobsports.com

Read an article about me in the Wall Street Journal

Follow me on Facebook and Twitter for updates on Best Bet releases

Related

    Here Are 100 Things to Fire You Up for CFB

    Arkansas State Football logo
    Arkansas State Football

    Here Are 100 Things to Fire You Up for CFB

    Chip Patterson
    via CBSSports.com

    Herm Can Actually Succeed at ASU. Here's How

    College Football logo
    College Football

    Herm Can Actually Succeed at ASU. Here's How

    SBNation.com
    via SBNation.com

    SEC Country, Land of 10 and DieHards to Shut Down

    College Football logo
    College Football

    SEC Country, Land of 10 and DieHards to Shut Down

    Ryan Glasspiegel
    via The Big Lead

    The Dark Horse Candidate for Michigan QB Job

    College Football logo
    College Football

    The Dark Horse Candidate for Michigan QB Job

    MLive.com
    via MLive.com