When David Meets Goliath: Predicting the 2008 FCS Upsets

InTheBleachers.net by Senior Analyst Written on June 16, 2008
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Is this the year Steve Spurrier finally gets the Gamecocks to the top of the SEC East standings?  Upon first inspection it may very well be, as South Carolina returns 17 total starters, including 10 on the defensive side of the ball from a team that went 6-6.

But it seems like you never can tell with Spurrier and SC, and despite an infusion of talent in the program they’ve still had their ups and downs during his tenure.  Case in point—the offense, which has failed to eclipse 24 points per game during Spurrier’s three years here, largely due to inconsistent quarterback play.

While the good news for 2008 is that presumed starter Chris Smelley has experience (six starts in two years), the bad news is that he’s been inconsistent and doesn’t have the mobility Spurrier would prefer.

SC’s other options may be limited, however, as highly touted redshirt freshman Stephen Garcia’s legal troubles have continued.  He was suspended for the spring, while last year’s third-string QB Tommy Beecher has struggled with accuracy and interceptions in limited duty.

The fact that Smelley and Beecher combined for a mind-boggling eight picks in the spring game is cause for concern, especially considering the team lost its top offensive playmaker (RB Corey Boyd) to the NFL.

Fortunately the defense returns virtually intact, but questionable performances against Louisiana-Lafayette (252 rush yards), LSU (290 rush yards), and Arkansas (541 rush yards) last year underscore potential matchup difficulties against run-based offenses.

South Carolina has been a streaky team over the past few seasons, and while they haven’t lost to an FCS school under Spurrier, they did barely survive a 27-20 scare against Wofford in a 2006 season which was Spurrier’s best here.

Wofford is actually the fourth-smallest school in Division I, but you wouldn’t have known it by the way their football team played last year.  The Terriers, who won the Southern Conference championship in 2007, have been something of a minor power in the FCS under head coach Mike Ayers, who has been named conference coach of the year four times since 2000.

Wofford runs an old-school meets new-school wingbone offense along the lines of what Paul Johnson ran at Navy, with the South Carolina school typically among the FCS leaders in rushing yards per game (second in the country at 309 ypg in 2007.)

Last season was a landmark year for the Terriers, who went 9-4 with wins over FCS heavyweights Appalachian State and Montana before losing in the quarterfinals of the playoffs to Richmond.

While they don’t return a majority of starters on offense or defense from last year’s team (10 full-time returning starters), they do get back 43 letterwinners and six “nonstaters” who started at least two games.

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written on June 16, 2008 Preview/Prediction

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