When David Meets Goliath: Predicting the 2008 FCS Upsets

InTheBleachers.net by Columnist Written on June 16, 2008
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LSU has a quarterback “situation” after Les Miles finally booted oft-troubled quarterback Ryan Perrilloux from the team this spring, with redshirt freshman Jarrett Lee and former Harvard transfer Andrew Hatch in the mix for the starting job come August 30.

The Tigers return thirteen starters overall but do lose some key players to the NFL, most notably Outland trophy winner Glenn Dorsey at DT, leading rusher Jacob Hester at RB, and top tacklers Craig Steltz and Ali Highsmith on the defense.  Starting quarterback Matt Flynn also departs, as does wide receiver Early Doucet and both starting cornerbacks.

While LSU certainly has the talent to eventually replace these players (with the possible exception of Dorsey), it won’t be easy, and despite a fairly light slate in September, it’s not unreasonable to expect the Tigers to go through some growing pains, especially on defense.

It’ll be interesting to see if this lack of championship experience at critical positions like quarterback and safety affects the way Les Miles runs his team.  We all know he’s a gambler in every sense of the word, but without his most trusted offensive and defensive tools, the Tigers may not find the kind of returns they expected on their early season gambles.

By now every college football fan in America is acquainted with the Appalachian State Mountaineers, and thankfully no longer on account of the Boone, North Carolina school’s reputation for being “hot, hot, hot.”

I could document the 2007 Mountaineer season in detail, but frankly it boils down to this—upset Michigan, make it to the playoffs, win a third straight FCS National Championship game.  The fact that ASU lost conference games to Wofford and Georgia Southern almost seems irrelevant, but it does prove one thing—the Mountaineers are by no means invincible.

While the offense was the top-ranked in the country last season (averaging 488 yards per game), the Mountaineers only return five starters for ‘08 and must find a way to replace a 1,000-yard rusher in Kevin Richardson, their three top receivers (including second-round draft choice Dexter Jackson), and three All-American offensive linemen.

This is an extremely tall order, and although Appalachian State remains one of the most talented teams in the FCS, it is unlikely that they’ll be able to come out with the same explosiveness that they had against Michigan last season.

Things look a little clearer on the defensive side of the ball, as Appalachian State returns seven starters, including all three linebackers in Jacque Roman, D.J. Smith, and Pierre Banks.  Nevertheless, there are questions surrounding the defense, which finished the year a ho-hum 70th in the country while allowing 380 yards per game.

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written on June 16, 2008 Preview/Prediction

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