MLB Arbitration Rundown: Who’s Staying, Who’s Going?
By (Analyst) on December 2, 2009
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This year 23 free agents were offered arbitration.
Of those 23, 10 are Type A free agents and 13 are Type B.
Teams that sign a Type A free agent will lose their first-round pick—if that club finished in the top 15 in the league—as well as a sandwich pick between rounds one and two of the draft.
Teams that sign a Type B free agent do not lose a draft pick, but the team that offered arbitration does receive an additional supplemental round pick.
The following players were offered arbitration on Tuesday, and now have until Dec. 7 to decide whether to accept.
Chone Figgins – 3B – Los Angeles Angels – Type A
2009 Salary: $5.775 million
Will He Accept: No
Rundown: Figgins figures to make plenty of money on the open market as a free agent this year. He is one of the most versatile players in the game and an elite top of the order threat.
New Deal: Four years, $40 million
Top Three Landing Spots: Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels
John Lackey – SP – Los Angeles Angels – Type A
2009 Salary: $9 million
Will He Accept: No
Rundown: Lackey is the only legitimate ace on the free agent market this year. Although he may not receive “A.J. Burnett money,” he does figure to score a hefty payday thanks to a weak class of starters.
New Deal: Four years, $60 million
Top Three Landing Spots: New York Mets, Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees
Jose Valverde – CL – Houston Astros – Type A
2009 Salary: $8 million
Will He Accept: Maybe
Rundown: Valverde could potentially get more money and more years in free agency, but the market is overloaded with solid closer types. It is more likely that a big market contender would use him in a setup role.
If Valverde wants a guaranteed closer’s job and a big payday, he should accept arbitration.
New Deal: One year, $10 million
Top Three Landing Spots: Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, Detroit Tigers
Marco Scutaro – SS/2B/3B – Toronto Blue Jays – Type A
2009 Salary: $1.1 million
Will He Accept: No
Rundown: After a career year, Scutaro—a career journeyman—is looking to cash in with a multi-year deal. He is the top shortstop option on the market and could conceivably pick and choose his next team. His positional flexibility figures to intrigue many suitors.
New Deal: Three years, $10 million
Top Three Landing Spots: Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals
Mike Gonzalez – CL – Atlanta Braves – Type A
2009 Salary: $3.45 million
Will He Accept: No
Rundown: Gonzalez had a stellar year out of the bullpen, serving initially as a closer and later as a top-flight lefty setup man. Many big market clubs looking to bolster their bullpens figure to offer Gonzalez multiple years.
New Deal: Three years, $12 million
Top Three Landing Spots: New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles
Rafael Soriano – CL – Atlanta Braves – Type A
2009 Salary: $6.1 million
Will He Accept: No
Rundown: Now that the closing job is no longer his in Atlanta, Soriano will look to go somewhere that offers that option. Most clubs have a closer this season, and few want to pay Soriano’s price. But for a guaranteed closing job he might be willing to take a modest pay cut.
New Deal: Three years, $16.5 million
Top Three Landing Spots: Detroit Tigers, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees
Matt Holliday – LF – St. Louis Cardinals – Type A
2009 Salary: $13.5 million
Will He Accept: No
Rundown: Holliday is shooting for “Mark Teixeira money” this offseason, and although he doesn’t figure to find that much, he does figure to sign a hefty, multi-year deal. He is undoubtedly the top outfielder on the market, and arguably the best overall player in free agency this year.
New Deal: Six years, $110 million
Top Three Landing Spots: New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals
Billy Wagner – CL – Boston Red Sox – Type A
2009 Salary: $10.5 million
Will He Accept: No
Rundown: Wagner wanted to close, and just hours after the arbitration deadline, he signed with Atlanta to become their closer. I’d say, barring him failing the physical, there’s no chance of Billy Wagner ever donning a Red Sox uniform again.
New Deal: One year, $7 million
Top Three Landing Spots: Atlanta Braves, Atlanta Braves, Atlanta Braves
Jason Bay – LF – Boston Red Sox – Type A
2009 Salary: $7.5 million
Will He Accept:No
Rundown: After Holliday, Bay is the top outfielder on the market and is coming off a pretty solid season in Boston. Either he or Holliday will set the market for the other this offseason. He’s already rejected a proposed four-year, $60 million deal from the Red Sox, so clearly he’s seeking more money and/or years.
New Deal: Five years, $87.5 million
Top Three Landing Spots: Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, Seattle Mariners
Rafael Betancourt – RP – Colorado Rockies – Type A
2009 Salary: $3.35 million
Will He Accept: Yes
Rundown: Betancourt had a solid campaign with the Rockies in 2009, but as we witnessed last offseason, almost no one is willing to give up a first-round draft pick for a middle reliever. Betancourt has been very up and down throughout his career, and would be wise to accept a solid raise on last year’s base salary.
New Deal: One year, $4.75 million
Top Three Landing Spots: Colorado Rockies, New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies
Justin Duchscherer – SP/RP – Oakland Athletics – Type B
2009 Salary: $3.9 million
Will He Accept: Maybe
Rundown: Duchscherer is an interesting case. He was an All-Star in 2008 and missed all of 2009 with a myriad of physical and mental issues. He could logically accept arbitration and stay in Oakland, where he is comfortable, and still make a decent chunk of change.
His alternative is to test a market that figures to be full of one-year, incentive-laden deals. Accepting the offer wouldn’t be a bad idea for the “Duke of Hurl.”
New Deal: One year, $3 million
Top Three Landing Spots: Oakland Athletics, Boston Red Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates
Rod Barajas – C – Toronto Blue Jays – Type B
2009 Salary: $2.5 million
Will He Accept: Maybe
Rundown: Most of the major players in the market for catchers are quickly finding cheap solutions. Barajas, who figures to be one of the more expensive options, may be inclined to accept the arbitration offer and hit the market again next winter.
New Deal: Two years, $6.5 million
Top Three Landing Spots: Toronto Blue Jays, Kansas City Royals, San Francisco Giants
Joel Pineiro – SP – St. Louis Cardinals – Type B
2009 Salary: $7.5 million
Will He Accept: No
Rundown: In a weak free agent class, Pineiro stands to cash in as one of the top five pitchers available on the market. Additionally, he’s coming off of a career year and figures to cash in nicely this offseason.
New Deal: Three years, $25 million
Top Three Landing Spots: St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets
Mark DeRosa – LF/3B/2B – St. Louis Cardinals – Type B
2009 Salary: $5.5 million
Will He Accept: No
Rundown: DeRosa, before hurting his wrist, was looking like a lock for a big-money, multi-year deal this offseason. His weak finish with St. Louis hurt his stock a little, but he is still coveted by a number of teams. His positional flexibility—although overrated—is enticing to many clubs.
New Deal: Four years, $27 million
Top Three Landing Spots: Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs
Adrian Beltre – 3B – Seattle Mariners – Type B
2009 Salary: $12 million
Will He Accept: No
Rundown: Beltre is arguably the best pure third basemen on the market this winter. He is one of, if not the best defensive third-sacker in the game, and he can hit for a solid average with decent right-handed power.
He won’t make anywhere near the money he did on his last trip to free agency, but he should still net a solid deal.
New Deal: Three years, $24 million
Top Three Landing Spots: Minnesota Twins, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox
Ivan Rodriguez – C – Texas Rangers – Type B
2009 Salary: $1.5 million
Will He Accept: Yes
Rundown: Pudge spent all of last offseason looking for a suitor only to find that there were none to be had. The cagey veteran eventually earned a shot with Houston after a big showing at the World Baseball Classic.
If he’s smart, Pudge will take the arbitration offer—and a nifty little raise—and stick with the Rangers, where he remains a legend.
New Deal: One year, $2.25 million
Top Three Landing Spots: Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, Retirement Home
Marlon Byrd – OF – Texas Rangers – Type B
2009 Salary: $3.06 million
Will He Accept: No
Rundown:Byrd is hitting free agency at just the right time. The drop-off after Bay and Holliday is pretty steep, and Byrd figures to be one of the next best outfielders available. He can play all three outfield positions and knows how to hit and hit for power.
New Deal: Three years, $10 million
Top Three Landing Spots: Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Atlanta Braves
Brian Shouse – RP – Tampa Bay Rays – Type B
2009 Salary: $1.35 million
Will He Accept: Yes
Rundown: Shouse, like the aforementioned Betancourt, is in a tough spot. Teams are generally reluctant to sign middle relievers who have been offered arbitration. Luckily Shouse is only a Type B and wouldn’t cost a first-round pick.
His best bet, after missing some serious time in 2009, is to re-sign with Tampa Bay and accept a modest raise—although teams also seem to be in search of left-handed specialists.
New Deal: One year, $2.15 million
Top Three Landing Spots: Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, San Diego Padres
Gregg Zaun – C – Tampa Bay Rays – Type B
2009 Salary: $1.5 million
Will He Accept: Maybe
Rundown: The market for backup catchers has dwindled significantly in recent days, and—barring the Rays non-tendering Dioner Navarro—his role in Tampa Bay is now nonexistent. He could reject and catch on somewhere else as a backup, but probably at a significant discount.
New Deal: One year, $1 million
Top Three Landing Spots: Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee Brewers, Baltimore Orioles
Jason Marquis – SP – Colorado Rockies – Type B
2009 Salary: $9.875 million
Will He Accept: No
Rundown: Marquis had a big first half, and a very pedestrian second half, but still figures to cash in on another multi-year deal this offseason. Most reports have the Mets as the front runners, and Marquis seems to be all about heading east for 2010.
New Deal: Three years, $33 million
Top Three Landing Spots: New York Mets, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers
Brandon Lyon – RP – Detroit Tigers – Type B
2009 Salary: $4.25 million
Will He Accept: No
Rundown: Lyon has stated that he wants to close, but the job opportunities just aren’t out there. Numerous clubs are showing interest in Lyon as a setup man and emergency closer. Although this may not be what Lyon wants, it is the only type of multi-year offer he can expect given the depth of closers on the market.
New Deal: Three years, $15 million
Top Three Landing Spots: New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Tampa Bay Rays
Fernando Rodney – CL – Detroit Tigers – Type B
2009 Salary: $2.7 million
Will He Accept: Maybe
Rundown: Rodney wants to remain a closer after a decent year in the role. Detroit needs a closer for next season and wouldn’t mind bringing Rodney back for another go’round. Other clubs seem interested, but Rodney’s not a top-flight option and wouldn’t get more than a short-term deal with any club as a closer.
New Deal: Two years, $6.5 million
Top Three Landing Spots: Detroit Tigers, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees
Carl Pavano – SP – Minnesota Twins – Type B
2009 Salary: $1.5 million
Will He Accept: Maybe
Rundown: Pavano could accept the offer and receive the equivalent of what he’d get if he signed a one-year deal on the open market, but he may have pitched his way into a multi-year deal. The Twins seem interested in signing him to a multi-year deal, so this may be an open and shut case.
New Deal: Three years, $16.5 million
Top Three Landing Spots: Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, Cleveland Indians
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