Week 12 IDP Waiver Wire Pickups: PERFORMANCE RESULTS

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Week 12 IDP Waiver Wire Pickups: PERFORMANCE RESULTS
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
By: Ryan Sitzmann (The IDP Guru)
Written: 11/30/2009

Welcome to this week's edition of "IDP Waiver Wire Pickups - Performance Results" where I examine how accurate I was in my Weekly IDP Waiver Wire suggestions from the previous week. The scoring system is as follows:

Accurate Prediction = +1 point

Neutral Prediction = 0 points

Inaccurate Prediction = -1 point

My goal and standard will be to finish each and every week with a total score of +2 or higher.

DL

"The Untouchables":  
Jared Allen (93%) 
Julius Peppers (66%)  
Elvis Dumervil (65%) 
Justin Tuck (62%)
Trent Cole (62%)    
Mario Williams (57%)
Osi Umenyiora (54%)
Robert Mathis (53%)
Dwight Freeney (46%)
Andre Carter (46%)

1. LDE Randy Starks - (Actual Performance:2-3-0.5)
Starks had a decent game against the Bills. From a fantasy standpoint, I would take his stat line this week from a defensive lineman pretty much every week. With that being said, I'm chalking this one up at an accurate prediction.

2. LDE Cliff Avril - (Actual Performance: 1-1-0)
What a let down. Considering how bad the Packers had been at protecting the QB, I expected at least 1 sack out of Avril this week. In my opinion, this is a sign that Avril has entered into the "dead pool" from a fantasy perspective. Moving forward, he's not worth owning in pretty much any leagues. 

3. LDE Patrick Kerney - (Actual Performance: 4-0-1 1 TFL)
Kerney came through with a solid day. This is what I love about Kerney: consistency. He always seems to get the job done against the teams he should get the job done against.

4. LDE Aaron Schobel - (Actual Performance: 2-1-0)
Schobel didn't show up in this game. In his defense, the Bills only registered 1 sack against the Dolphins. And Schobel still had more tackles than his counterpart Chris Kelsay.

5. LDE Shaun Ellis - (Actual Performance: 2-1-0)
Ellis was on many IDP waiver wire lists this week after his 2 sack performance in Week 11. It seemed as though the Jets were utilizing more LB blitzes this week to get to the QB, which obviously hurt Ellis' numbers. I guess this is the risk you take in pickup up a 3-4 defensive lineman.

*The IDP Guru's Lock of the Week*
LDE Will Smith - (Actual Performance: 4-0-1.5)
was right in my prediction that Will Smith would get "Jiggy With It" and create problems for Tom Brady. Smith was pressuring Brady all night and should continue to perform well down the stretch.

LB

"The Untouchables":
Patrick Willis (99%)
James Harrison (95%)
Ray Lewis (83%)
Jon Beason (74%)
Barrett Rudd (72%)
Demarcus Ware (72%)
London Fletcher (71%)
D.J. Williams (69%)
Curtis Lofton (66%)
Kirk Morrison (64%)
Brian Cushing (60%)
Demeco Ryans (57%)
Karlos Dansby (55%)
David Harris (54%)
Lance Briggs (43%)

1. MLB David Hawthorne - (Actual Performance: 5-1-1)
This guy never ceases to amaze me! Every week he manages, in some form or another (tackles, sacks, INT's), to amass a significant amount of points. The word is already out but if for some odd reason Hawthorne is still available on your waiver wire, pick him up immediately. He's a Top 5 LB from here on out.

2. WLB Will Witherspoon - (Actual Performance: 5-1-0)
Not a great game by "Spoon" nor a horrible one either. I expected this amount of tackle production from Witherspoon, but I also expected a sack or INT going up against the Redskins. I'll consider this a neutral prediction.

3. MLB Justin Durant - (Actual Performance: 3-3-0)
Durant managed to squeeze 6 tackles out of a game where there weren't many tackle opportunities for the Jaguars. He actually led the team with 6 total tackles. However, this is still a disappointment considering Durant, when healthy, is a top 10 LB. To his benefit though, the 49ers give up the least amount of points to opposing LB's. I still have with in Durant and would start him the majority of weeks.

4. ILB Nick Barnett - (Actual Performance: 7-3-0)
A very nice game for Barnett, who has been very consistent the last 6 or 7 games. I will take 10 total tackles out of my LB any day of the week.

5. MLB Larry Foote - (Actual Performance: 5-2-0)
Foote did exactly what I would expect him to. Nothing great, but 7 tackles sure helps your defense.

*The IDP Guru's Lock of the Week*
MLB P
aul Posluszny - (Actual Performance: 6-4-0)
Another double digit total tackle day for Paul. This guy is about as bankable as it gets. I still am scratching my head as to why he isn't owned in more leagues. If he is available in your league, I wouldn't hesitate to pick him up and start him every week. He's pretty much "matchup independent" at this point in the season.

DB

"The Untouchables":
Eric Weddle (66%)
Charles Woodson (63%)
Troy Polamalu (62%)
Antrel Rolle (59%)
Darren Sharper (58%)
Ed Reed (56%)
Oshiomogho Atogwe (54%)
Roman Harper (53%)
Brandon Meriweather (53%)
Daniel Manning (51%)
Erik Coleman (51%)
Antoine Bethea (49%)

1. CB Chris Gamble/Richard Marshall - (Actual Performance: Gamble 1-0-0 INT, Marshall 6-2-0 FR)
Gamble came through with a pick and Marshall had a solid day tackle-wise with an added fumble recovery.

2. SS Tyvon Branch - (Actual Performance: 1-1-0)
Being a huge Cowboys fan, I watched this entire game in-depth. For some reason, Branch just wasn't playing his usual role. The Raiders had SLB Sam Williams on Witten the entire game (Branch usually covers the TE) and the Cowboys aren't the greatest matchup for DB's. Branch's numbers this week were a big let-down, but I still would recommend using him pretty much every week.

3. SS/WLB Bryan Scott - (Actual Performance: 7-3-0)
Admittingly, this pick was like taking candy from a baby. Scott is playing WLB on of the poorer defenses in the league and was going against the run-heavy Dolphins. And he qualifies at the SS position. However, many IDPers don't follow closely enough to know these facts. If he's available, pick him up, and ride him out for the rest of the year.

4. FS Brandon McGowan - (Actual Performance: 1-2-0)
Even though the Patriots got pounded by the Saints, there defense didn't have very many tackling opportunities because the Saints scored so quickly. With that being said, McGowan still should have had more than 3 tackles.

5. SS Bernard Pollard - (Actual Performance: 8-2-0)
I have to say that this is a pretty amazing IDP fantasy story. Pollard was cut from the lowly Chiefs before the regular season started, essentially leaving him useless from a fantasy football perspective. However, after being signed in Week 3 by the Texans, Pollard has amassed 70 total tackles, 2 INT's, and 2 FR's. It almost brings a tear to my eyes.

*The IDP Guru's Lock of the Week*
CB Nick Harper - (Actual Performance: 9-0-0)
I hope people took my advice on this one and picked up Harper this week because it sure would have paid off. Harper is the perfect fantasy CB. He doesn't have very good cover skills and  therefore opposing QB's throw at him a ton but he is actually a solid tackler, so he racks up a ton of tackles. Good for fantasy players, bad for the Titans.


After totaling up all of the points, I finished this week with a score of +6 (12 positives, 6 negatives, and 1 neutral prediction). In other words, this means I was correct on 67% of my predictions (i.e. 2/3). This was my best week so far, especially in my prediction success rate for defensive lineman. Hopefully, my Week 12 IDP Waiver Wire suggestions were helpful.

This article is also featured on my blog: http://idpguru.blogspot.com

Thanks!

Ryan Sitzmann (The IDP Guru)

 

 

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