No. 1 Recruit Tony Jefferson: UCLA, USC, Oklahoma, or Michigan?

As the college football season winds down, the battles won and lost off the field start to heat up.

Nothing grows wilder or more contentious than the modern war game known as college recruiting.

The practice of cajoling, wooing, and manipulating high school kids into believing your school offers the best shot at the next level continues with the recruitment of Chula Vista, California's Tony Jefferson, ESPN's no. 1 rated athlete.

Jefferson has committed to three programs already—Stanford, USC, and UCLA—but just yesterday announced that he is uncommitted and announced a top three that did not contain his most recent school of choice.

Who are his top three? Who's still hanging on? Who has the best shot?

Read on and find out.

Will It Be...Florida?

Florida and USC are reportedly the two schools recruiting Jefferson as a running back. If Jefferson favored a position switch (he's the No. 1 athlete to ESPN, but Rivals and Scout consider him a safety), the Gators ought to be among the top two schools.

The switch doesn't appear to be a priority for Jefferson, however, since Florida and Jefferson have been on-again, off-again throughout the season and did not end up having an official visit.

Insiders at UCLA dismissed Florida in early November, but Jefferson reaffirmed his interest by stating that he would visit on Nov. 28 for the Florida State game.

That visit never materialized. Instead, Jefferson visited USC on the 27th. He will not have seen Gainesville at all by the date of his decision.

Though Jefferson indicated that he has family in Florida and that would make a potential move there easier, there's little chance that becomes the deal-breaker in favor of the Gators.

Without a visit and with little known interest in a position switch, it looks like the Gators are pretty far out of the running. Jefferson hasn't mentioned that Florida is still in the running since altering his plans to include USC a week ago.

A commitment to the Gators would be completely unforeseeable.

Will It Be...Arizona?

Arizona was Jefferson's second official visit, coming a week after a trip to Oklahoma.

Jefferson's response to the trip—he enjoyed the facilities, didn't mind the heat, etc., etc.

The telling lack of fireworks in Jefferson's response, however, is what now dooms Arizona to the longest of long shots.

Despite getting him on campus, Jefferson wasn't wowed enough to include Arizona in any of his ever-dwindling lists of top candidates.

The Wildcats are not named in his final top three and are pretty well out of the question.

In my mind, they're still a year or two away from landing the top guys in California, on the field as well as on the recruiting trail.

Will It Be...UCLA?

Here's where it gets interesting...

Despite appearing to capitalize on Jefferson's discontent with the rival Trojans earlier this year—Jefferson committed, then decommitted from USC prior to shacking up with UCLA—the Bruins' shot at landing Jefferson is, as of the publication of this article, all but lost.

Jefferson was already the softest of soft verbals after backpedaling on his Jul. 22 commitment to UCLA by opening up visits to other schools and announcing a progressively waning interest in the Bruins' program.

Following Jefferson's visit to rival USC—indicatively, just in time for the Trojans' crosstown rivalry game, which the Men of Troy won in dominant fashion, 28-7—Jefferson officially decommitted from UCLA and spurned them from his final top three.

The final decision will be between Michigan, USC, and Oklahoma, meaning that not only did the Bruins lose Jefferson's soft verbal, they lost their chance entirely. A planned return to UCLA on Dec. 7 is likely off, clearing the way for the other programs to make their final pitches.

It looks like Jefferson's change of heart wasn't anybody's fault but the Bruins' own. From an insider report on his visit, Jefferson complained of UCLA players taunting him and deriding him for wearing USC colors on his visit to the rivalry game. Jefferson claimed he felt "disrespected" by the players, many of whom he had befriended on earlier visits.

Jefferson's change of heart also may have had something to do with UCLA landing four-star outside linebacker Aramide Olaniyan, who was originally committed to Duke before decommitting in October. Olaniyan and Jefferson offer similar skill sets, although Olaniyan is a more pure 'backer and has less potential at moving into a secondary position.

Olaniyan will make the loss hurt less, but Jefferson's recent change of heart is, from a Bruins' perspective, playing out like the most torrid of melodramas: boy decommits from hated rival, warms up to you, commits to you, falters, quarrels, and ultimately, washes up at the doorstep of his former flame.

Will It Be...Michigan?

Michigan was Jefferson's second most recent visit—he showed up for the Ohio State game on Nov. 21—and the returns were positive.

Jefferson wasn't fazed by the cold and said he liked the tradition imbued in The Game, and he was impressed when Michigan fans recognized him and chanted his name.

Michigan has only four scholarships to give and is awaiting very likely commitments from three players—Florida CB Tony Grimes, Florida DE Clarence Murphy, and Maryland LB Josh Furman—leaving Jefferson with the last possible spot.

With four defensive backs already in the class and the pending commitment of another, Jefferson would be loath not to notice the competition at the spot, particularly with the tentative word that All-Big Ten corner back Donovan Warren will be returning next year.

That said, anyone who watched Michigan play this year knows the defensive backfield is his for the taking, particularly at the safety position. The one advantage Michigan offers over all others is the opportunity for Jefferson to contribute almost immediately and not have to exercise a redshirt.

To add to this advantage, Jefferson has indicated that he will be graduating high school in December with the intention of enrolling early at the college of his choosing. This would give him a great opportunity to contribute early like Tate Forcier did in enrolling for the spring term last year.

Of Michigan, Jefferson said, "I've been watching their games, and I really like the way they've been playing defense. I know at Michigan I could get a really good education, and always be fighting to play in a bowl game; I like that."

ESPN has speculated he will choose the Wolverines, according to an article in the Detroit News. This oft-cited articlealso lists the Wolverines among Jefferson's top three.

I, for one, don't buy it. I caught Scout's insider article in between plane trips, and in its first manifestation, Michigan was not mentioned on the list, leading me to believe they're an afterthought in Jefferson's mind. They're clearly the biggest flier of the three.

Add to that how Jefferson has not displayed a particularly consistent position on Michigan; instead, he seems to favor the school of his most recent visit. Michigan will be at least two or three visits removed at the time of his selection.

I don't see how the Wolverines can compete against Oklahoma's upcoming in-house visit or the siren song of nearby USC. There's just too much ground to make up and not enough time.

Additionally, it is always difficult to tear California players away from the pleasant weather, and since Michigan is the lone Northern school on his list, the Wolverines are at a clear disadvantage.

It would be different if Big Blue were competing against Iowa, Ohio State, and Wisconsin for Jefferson, but he clearly favors warm weather as a function of his upbringing.

I'd say Michigan is out of the loop.

Will It Be...Oklahoma?

Jefferson came back from his Oct. 30 visit to Norman, Oklahoma, supportive of the Sooners, and they've survived his other visits to remain tied for first place with USC.

Jefferson likes a project; he indicated his desire to know more about USC's defensive struggles prior to visiting there, and wants to contribute immediately to the school of his choosing.

So it's possible that Oklahoma's ho-hum 7-5 season actually helped them in landing fixer-upper types like Jefferson, who would be able to contribute in a variety of ways for the rebuilding Sooners.

Still, Oklahoma has its work cut out trying to tear Jefferson away from USC. He's never been as effusive in his praise of Oklahoma as he has of even Michigan—they came in for the same bland "facilities, atmosphere, etc." treatment as Arizona did (although, he liked that the Sooners made signs for him).

My interpretation is that Oklahoma is Jefferson's distant, dreamy, exciting pick, while USC is his safe, sensible pick. The decision might depend on what side of the bed he wakes up on on signing day.

Both schools boast proud defensive traditions and relatively poor seasons (though, conveniently, not to the extent of Michigan's), both of which Jefferson has been keen in picking up on.

If Stoops ends up landing Jefferson, it will be because of the promise of excitement and the thrill of a new landscape far from home.

Will It Be...USC?

Jefferson committed to the Trojans first before switching to UCLA, so they've always been on his radar.

But, he indicated an issue of trust when it became evident that USC was recruiting other safeties besides him, though he'd been told he was the only one. That "rubbed [him] the wrong way" at the time, though he and the school have resumed communication.

Faith in Jefferson had all but dried up prior to the surprise announcement that he would be taking his second-to-last official visit to USC on the 27th, the day before the UCLA-USC game.

The announcement turned out to be a good sign—Jefferson left the campus favoring the Trojans again.

USC is close to home and was Jefferson's original choice, and the Trojans' troubles in the defensive backfield were clearly of interest to Jefferson. He says he visited to "see what happened" to the USC defense, and he is clearly a player who wants to make an immediate impact.

The departure of Taylor Mays to the NFL will leave the defensive backfield open for competition. Additionally, USC has only gained commitments from defensive back Dion Martin, so Jefferson has to be intrigued at the lack of bodies to replace Mays and compete.

Additionally, the Trojans have their best man on the job: John Morton, Trojans' offensive coordinator and WRs coach, has already gained commitments from three other four-star players, and should be lauded for getting Jefferson onto campus at the eleventh hour.

USC also gives Jefferson the possibility of playing at running back, meaning the Trojans offer more than one opportunity for playing time.

We'll have to await Jefferson's final decision, but in my mind USC is your clear leader. The trust issue is last year's news, the Trojans are the local favorite, and they enable Jefferson to play immediately at the position of his choosing.

Don't be surprised if Carroll snatches another prize recruit from the jaws of programs that are, you now, actually struggling.

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