In looking at the San Jose Sharks' needs in the upcoming draft, it is essential to look at their goals. Is this a team built to win now, in the near future, or for the long haul?
The team has been one of the final eight teams playing for four years in a row. Doug Wilson's traded away three first-round draft picks in the last two years, albeit in part because two additional picks had been acquired in that time. Their coach was fired for failing to make the final four the last three years.
It is safe to say the expectations are immediate.
It is also essential to analyze the current roster. What are its strengths and weaknesses, both short- and long-term?
Perhaps the organization's greatest strength is the age of the roster. While most of the players have gained valuable playoff experience, few are over 30. Only Jeremy Roenick (38), Craig Rivet (33), Mike Grier (33), Evgeni Nabokov (32), Jody Shelley (32), and Curtis Brown (32) were counted on in the playoffs and were beyond that age.
Meanwhile, very young players such as Marc-Edouard Vlassic (21), Devin Setoguchi (21), Torrey Mitchell (23), Milan Michalek (23), Matt Carle (23), and Joe Pavelski (23) were counted on. These players will only get better.
Furthermore, the team has prospects who are not even old enough to legally drink in this country: Logan Couture, Ty Wishart, and Jamie McGinn, among others. Some of them will be ready to back up the young players already on the roster.
Unfortunately, this strength may have also been a weakness. Experience is important especially on the blue line, where the Sharks struggled to handle the aggressive forechecks of Calgary and Dallas.
Moreover, new coach Todd McLellan will need a puck-moving blue line to fuel the system he wants to bring over from the Red Wings. And while this year's draft is universally considered the deepest since 2003, it is not going to bring a player who can handle those responsibilities.
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Therefore, because there is a plethora of young talent and a need to win now, one might expect General Manager Doug Wilson to go after more veterans rather than expect any new draft picks to contribute. This works out well since the team does not have a pick prior to the fourth round.
However, the team will certainly not have the skill set necessary unless they can keep or replace Brian Campbell. Also, there are not many free agents who fit the bill available.
There is the possibility the Sharks will seek to fill their needs with a trade. The most likely person to be traded would seem to be Patrick Marleau.
The team has failed to have playoff success under his leadership and may want to put a new face on the team. He is coming off sub-par performances dating back to the second playoff round last year, but he has the talent to be desirable.
Even the outgoing coach he supposedly feuded with seemed to be making overtures to acquire him, saying he would love to coach Patty again and that he received a text from the Sharks captain stating he would love to play for him again. The Toronto Maple Leafs have a couple defensemen (Tomas Kaberle and Pavel Kubina) that fit the Sharks' needs, but have been unwilling to waive no-trade clauses.
The Leafs would likely jump at Marleau for a first-round pick, and he has also been rumoured to be going with another player to Columbus for their high first-round pick and Nicklas Zherdev.
Unfortunately, they would likely be a plan B for Wilson because neither Leaf is as good as Campbell. To take on their contracts, he would have to lose his plan A to free agency.
Meanwhile, the Columbus trade would not provide the blue line talent the Sharks are looking for, even were it modified to include the Blue Jackets' best defenseman.
Therefore, I do expect Wilson to make a move to get a higher pick and free up room in the budget to sign Campbell, who is the perfect Brian Rafalski-type defenseman to fit in with McLellan's style. Marleau is certainly the most likely trade commodity.
On the other hand, McLellan specifically mentioned the Sharks' strength at center as a correlation to the Red Wings, citing Marleau and Thornton. This might be an indication the new talent evaluation partnership desired to keep Patty.
So who else could they move? Perhaps Matt Carle, who signed a large contract last season and is a young, talented defenseman for a team not looking to contend now. Or perhaps another forward would catch a good return.
However, no one else on the roster could be moved and free up so much team budget other than Joe Thornton, and there is no way the team can get enough return on a perennial 90+ point player and still be looking to win now. There is a chance they can tap into their depth and move a package for a better player, but after how Wilson fleeced Boston, he might not find any takers.
In the end, I think the chance the team moves Patty for a pick, player, or as part of a package is at least 50 percent. They will either use this trade to free up money to acquire a veteran on their blue line or to get that veteran directly.
With the team's remaining picks being in the fourth round and later, it would not be wise to try to fill needs because those players are too much a roll of the dice. Moreover, the team is not weak at any one position.
Therefore, the rest of the draft is going to be used to take the best players available at the time, whether they are forwards, defensemen, or goalies. The team is deep at the latter position in the juniors and minors, but they also like to be deep in that position.
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2 months ago
A whole lot of text to say the Sharks will do nothing except stand pat.
from 2 months ago
Not exactly--I actually said they would move Patty for a pick to free up cap space (third and seventh last paragraphs). But I can understand you not seeing it because it was a lot of text--I did want to analyze all of their options so everyone would see why I thought they would not exercise some of them.
2 months ago
Patrick Marleau is worth the 6.3 mil, IMHO. The guy can deliver 70+ points in a good year. For crying out load, that's seventy points! Can Campbell deliver seventy points? No. Not. Sure he's worth 6+ mill per year, but not at the expense of Marleau. It makes no fiscal sense whatsoever. Trading Marleau better bring Stanley NOW or forget it.
from 2 months ago
Wow, you had a lot of fallacies there:
1. It's not just about points. If a guy scores 70 but gives up 90 while he's on the ice, he's not much good to you.
2. Marleau did not score 70, he scored 56.
3. A defenseman is not in position to get as many points as a center--it's like comparing a blue liner's minutes to a center's--can Patty play as many minutes as Soupy? No, but he's not supposed to.
4. Soupy outscored Patty by six plast season!
5. Our blue line is what failed us. Our forwards could not even all get into the lineup--we would have Brown, Shelley, Goc, or Plihal scratched every night, but only Carle among our D who were healthy and any good (i.e. excluding Semenov and Ozolinsh). Every other contender in the West has a better blue line than us; even without Patty (who, excuse me, was HORRIBLE last season), we have a deeper forward unit than anyone but Detroit.
2 months ago
I think Patty is on the outs. Two more years over $6 mil per means the team likely can't afford him and Campbell. A puck-moving defenseman who can skate like Campbell is a bigger team need than a No. 2 center on a team loaded with young centers (Pavelski is ready to be a No. 2 IMO with Mitchell a No. 3 and either Goc or Roenick as the No. 4). Factor in that Couture should be ready in a year along with the fact that Marleau's no-trade clause kicks in July 1st and that the team still has a self-imposed low salary structure and it just makes too much sense. We all know Dougie loves his draft picks. Patty has been a great Shark for all these years, but I think it's time to get top dollar for him and move forward to shore up holes on the team rather than add strength at center.
2 months ago
I believe there is a window in Kubina's no-trade-clause from (roughly) now to July 1st, so it is possible he may be moved. But, it is believed former SJ and now current Toronto Coach Ron Wilson likes Kubina, so he may remain with the Leafs after all.
And this move would likely be made before July 1st, so if it is Plan B to Re-signing Campbell, they would need to figure out where they stand with him a few days prior to him entering Free Agency.
from 2 months ago
Thanks for the extra info!
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