Week 12: NFL Picks & Predictions

I pick 'em every week and have for years. This season, I’ve been doing most of my picks right here on bleacherreport.com and also over at my site sports-uncut.com.

Going into last week (11), I was a solid if unspectacular 103-42, good for a 70.6 percent accuracy rate.

Last season was my personal best of 80 percent. This year, I'm looking to improve upon that.

Last week I actually didn’t have time to do the article as work requirements kept me away. However, I did pick in my local pool and ended up 11-4 for the week. My picks here never vary from those.

I missed the Pittsburgh/Kansas City game, as I picked the Steelers. I missed the Atlanta/New York game, as I thought Matty Ice would be solid against the G-Men. I missed the Cincy/Oakland game, as basically everyone else did...who’d have thought that game would play out like that? And finally, I missed the Houston/Tennessee game last night, as I though Schaub would have a monster night.

This week, there are three games on Thursday, which means plenty of time to gorge yourself, and ample opportunities to watch some pigskin!

You’ve got Green Bay at Detroit on Fox, Oakland at Dallas on CBS, and of course the G-Men at Denver on Thursday Night Football on the NFL network.

There are some good games and intriguing matchups on the slate for this week. As always, I’m not picking the spread here folks; I’m picking the straight-up winner.

Record:

Record from Two Weeks Previous (10): 10-5

Record from Last Week (11): 11-4

Record coming into Week 12: 114 - 46 (72.5 percent)

Now that the records are out of the way, let's get right to it!

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions: Thanksgiving Day

Detroit is coming off an emotional, last-minute win against the Cleveland Browns in what might have been one of the best games of the year to watch.

Detroit showed some real mettle in coming back after being down so far so early in the game. It was a phenomenal day for Matthew Stafford as he threw for 422 yards and five TDs. It was the first time, to me anyway, that he looked like more than a high school QB.

Conversely, Green Bay is coming off a physical game against the San Francisco 49ers, and actually had to fight at the end to lock down the win.

Aaron Rodgers looked great, as he always does, and Ryan Grant finally looks like he's coming into form...at least fantasy owners are hoping so.

The D isn't as stout as they were early in the year, and the loss of Kampman is going to make it tougher for them to create pressure. That could make them susceptible to opposing offenses, most anyway...

Really though, we are talking about the Lions here. They don't have a whole lot that strikes fear into the heart of their opponents. I think this game could be close, as Detroit actually tends to play pretty well on Thanksgiving, but in the end, I don't see them getting it done.

VERDICT: If Brady Quinn just lit the Lions D up for 300+ and four TD's, imagine what Aaron Rodgers is going to do. Green Bay gets a relatively easy win.

Oakland Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys: Thanksgiving Day

Last week, the Raiders got an unlikely win, off an unlikely spark against the Cincinnati Bengals, arguably the best team in the AFC North.

It was sloppy, but a win nonetheless. They were aided by the fact that the Bengals played unmotivated, and that Carson Palmer struggled all day to find his WRs, finishing with only 207 yards passing.

Where the Raiders were beaten last week was on the ground, and I have a feeling that this week will be more of the same.

The Raiders can pressure the QB, and can make some plays in that regard. However, they're weak against the run, ranking No. 30 overall.

Bernard Scott, the rookie from Abilene Christian, hung 119 yards rushing on them. And this week, facing the likes of Marion "The Barbarian" Barber and Felix Jones, the Raiders will likely have a tough day.

That said, if Dallas gets away from the running game like they sometimes tend to do, it could be a costly mistake. I think Wade and O-Coordinator Jason Garrett will stick with run and do just enough through the air to keep Oakland's D and Nnamdi Asomugha honest, which will lead to a win.

VERDICT: Tony Romo will have a decent day; however, Dallas' D will limit Gradkowski and the Oakland offense, which will give the Cowboys' O plenty of opportunities for success. Cowboys get a win while Marion has a big day!

New York Giants @ Denver Broncos: Thanksgiving Night

In previous articles, I've discussed how average Denver really is, and now we're seeing it first-hand. McDaniels' offense is too predictable, and Denver's D is on the field too much. They're regressing badly.

Conversely, the Giants appear to be headed in the right direction after last weeks' OT win against the Atlanta Falcons, which snapped their losing skid at 4 games.

Eli Manning had a tremendous day, throwing for 384 yards and three TDs. He got Manningham, Nicks, and Smith all involved in the passing attack, which was critical in the game-winning OT drive.

This week, the Giants go to the Mile High City to take on the struggling, almost hapless, Denver Broncos.

There were some lofty expectations from fans and news outlets alike in Denver after the surprising 6-0 start. However, the team everyone is seeing now is the team that they really are. They're just not that good. They have no running game to speak of, and the passing game is so erratic it can't be depended on. The lone bright spot they had, the defense, is now starting to collapse under the pressure.

Denver's O can't sustain drives long enough to give their D time to recuperate and rest, and when a team is on the field as often as Denver's D has been, you become more open and beatable. We saw that last week as Philip Rivers and the Chargers flat out beat down the Denver Broncos 32-3.

This week, we could see more of the same thing.

Eli Manning has proven he can throw on pretty much anyone, and Ahmad Bradshaw is clearly the more dynamic back in the Giant backfield.

However, the weapon that's flying under the radar right now is Hakeem Nicks. It's pretty likely that Champ will cover Steve Smith or Mario Manningham in this game. That is going to leave rookie Hakeem Nicks in single coverage outside. And with his size, he can beat the Denver defensive backfield.

VERDICT: This is going to be a close game. However, I think the Giants have the upper hand as both Eli and Bradshaw are better than their counterparts. The Giants get a big W in Mile High.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are coming off a heart-breaker against the Giants, in which they forced OT against a better team and kind of struggled offensively. This week is going to be better for both teams in this matchup, and could be a lot closer than expected.

Tampa Bay got destroyed last week by a score of 38-7, losing to a New Orleans Saints team that is probably the most potent offensive attack in the NFL.

This week could be more of the same for the Bucs. Atlanta comes in sporting a very good offense that supports a D on life support, ranking 24th against the rush and 29th against the pass.

The Falcons can score, and they can score quickly. Tampa Bay on the other hand can't score as frequently, and also has a D that has basically flat-lined, ranking dead last in the league against the run.

The fact that they rank so low against the run is why I think they'll lose.

Atlanta's strong suit has been the run, and while Mike Turner may not go again this week, they have a solid backup in Jason Snelling, who has proven he's NFL caliber talent. Last week he ran for 76 yards and two scores, and did so against a very good Giants D. This week he should eclipse those numbers and score multiple times again against the worst run D in the league.

One positive for Bucs fans is that this is experience for Josh Freeman, one of the more exciting young QB prospects in the game. He could have a decent day, and with each decent day comes a little more confidence.

VERDICT: Matty Ice and the Falcons O will simply outscore the Bucs O. Falcons win a close one at home.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

Last Thursday against the Panthers, Ricky Williams started in place of injured starter Ronnie Brown. Williams delivered in a big way, rushing for 122 yards and tallying three TDs, two rushing and one receiving.

This week, he and his mates go to Buffalo to face a Bills team that while playing a little better after the coaching change, still has no identity to speak of. Right now the Bills rank 31st against the run, and that's why they're going to lose this game.

Ricky Williams is rejuvenated, and like a fine wine, seems to have gotten better with time. He looks terrific, and, from what I'm seeing, is reconsidering his desire to retire.

He should have another stellar week this week and will take away Miami's need to throw the ball, which is a good thing as Buffalo has the No. 9 pass D.

VERDICT: This should be a good game. I expect Miami to get a big win against Buffalo on the road and maintain playoff legitimacy.

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles

Believe it or not, I'm a little up in the air as to where to go with this selection. Washington, for as bad as they are, actually have the No. 1 overall passing D. They have shown signs of life the last couple of weeks, with their biggest win being that against Denver.

Philly is a bit of a mess right now. No one ever really knows when Brian Westbrook is healthy enough to play or when he's not. Last week they barely got away with a W in Chicago.

The reasons I like Washington outweigh those that I do Philly. However, I just can't opt against the Eagles in this one, especially being in Philly.

Washington is going to take away what the Eagles do well, and that's pass the ball. They're going to force them to run and without Westbrook, that could be a difficult thing for them to do this week. I do like McCoy, but he's just a rookie. To have the game plan run through him and him alone seems a bit of a stretch.

I think the only reason the Redskins lose this game is their offensive ineptitude, not their D.

VERDICT: Being a rivalry game, this one has all the makings of a classic, and it could go either way. I'm saying, albeit reluctantly, the Eagles win it.

Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams

Steven Jackson is quickly becoming my new man crush. This guy has always been, at least in my mind, an elite RB. He's a stud on a team of duds. However, that team of duds is getting a little bit better week by week, and Steven Jackson is the biggest reason.

He has been, to this point, the catalyst for the success that the Rams have had, and they'll need him more than ever now with Bulger being done for the season.

The Rams are hosting the Seahawks this week in a game that should prove to be pretty decent. The Seahawks have been struggling and are coming off a 35-9 drubbing at the hands of the Vikings. They'll be looking for some redemption; but I don't know that they'll find it this week.

St. Louis has a D that ranks near the bottom against the run (28th) and pass (24th), but I don't think there's any reason to believe they can't stop the Seahawk attack.

Steven Jackson just faced the No. 8 rushing D in the league in Arizona, and facing the No. 15 this week should translate well for him.

Seattle is still trying to figure out who they are, and while I don't know that the Rams will be the toughest test for them, I do know that they'll get a real game. The Rams play tough and they don't stop, which is a testament to Steve Spagnuolo and his staff.

VERDICT: Steven Jackson has a good day and leads the Rams to a big W at home.

Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets

In the last couple of weeks, Steve Smith (no not that one; the original) has really started to step up his game. He has started to make himself more of a weapon that needs to be accounted for, which has been hugely important to the turnaround of Carolina's team as a whole.

They're making progress and moving in the right direction.

The Jets on the other hand have lost a lot of the luster they had at the beginning of the season, and their momentum along with it.

I like Rex Ryan, and I think he's a solid if unspectacular coach. But at this point, the Jets have lost their "it"—their gumption or fight.

Mark Sanchez will be facing some stiff competition this week, as Carolina boasts the No. 5 passing D, and they've shown that they can create pressure and turnovers. That means the Jets will need Thomas Jones at full speed, ready to win. And honestly, I don't know if he'll be ready to carry the brunt of the load in this game.

The Jets D is going to have the task of containing not only DeAngelo Williams, but also Johnathan Stewart and Steve Smith. With the passing and rushing D as middle of the road as they are, it could prove to be tough. I like Carolina to exploit Sanchez's weaknesses and capitalize on the turnovers they'll create. But Delhommne will have to limit his turnover-prone ways as much as possible to be effective this week.

VERDICT: The Jets will make this a good game and could potentially win it. However, I think Carolina has shown some forward momentum; they should continue that and get a W this week.

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals

Even though Cleveland showed signs of life last week on the offensive side of the ball, it doesn't give me or many other Browns fans any kind of hope going into this week.

It was the Lions. Unfortunately for the Browns, this week it's the Cincinnati Bengals. The same Bengals who have the No. 2 rushing D and a top 20 passing D.

Carson Palmer is going to have a field day, as will Ochocinco, Coles, and Bernard Scott.

I think Brady Quinn showed a glimmer of what he could be one day, but this Sunday he'll likely revert to the Brady Quinn we all know.

This one probably won't be close, even though historically these are high scoring affairs.

VERDICT: Cincy rebounds from a terrible loss to the Oakland Raiders, and takes out their frustration on the lowly one-win Browns.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

I'm definitely intrigued by this match-up. Typically when these two teams get together, it tends to be a feisty, well-played, highly exciting game. I don't think it'll be any different this time around.

Peyton brings the most consistently good offense in the NFL into Reliant Stadium to play the Texans and try to reach the 11-0 mark.

This is going to be a good game, but I don't think Houston can win it.

Peyton Manning is easily the MVP in the NFL this season, and has lifted the Colts into territory they haven't seen since they started 13-0 a couple of years ago. The difference this time is that he actually has a defense to help him out.

The Colts currently rank 13th against the rush and 18th against the pass, but those numbers are a bit misleading.

They've created turnovers all season, and they've been timely turnovers—usually leading to points for the Colts. This week will be the same.

Matt Schaub is a good QB, and if he could stay healthy and at 100 percent for an entire season, it would be scary what we might see.

That said, the Colts are going to force a turnover or two at some point in this game, and when you have the best QB in the NFL under center leading your team, you're not going to lose many.

VERDICT: This game could be close. But even if it is, I like Peyton Manning and the Colts to get it done in Houston.

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers

San Diego is coming off a convincing win against the Denver Broncos IN Denver, and they've solidified themselves atop the AFC West with a 7-3 record.

Philip Rivers wasn't spectacular in Denver, but he managed the game and made timely plays that allowed his team to succeed. This week Rivers gets to be spectacular (and should be) against the 28th ranked passing D in the league.

He should be able to absolutely tear apart a Chiefs D that Ben Roethlisberger, the supposed "Most Clutch QB" in the NFL, couldn't get past.

Frankly, I don't even think this one is going to be close. While I watched KC beat Pittsburgh last week, let's be honest in saying that Pittsburgh looked absolutely putrid in all phases of that game, especially on special teams.

The Chiefs are steadily improving, something I like to see. However Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, Vince Jackson, LT, Darren Sproles, and Malcolm Floyd will prove to be too difficult for the Chiefs to defend against.

VERDICT: The Chargers move another game up on Denver in the AFC West with a win against KC at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers

Frank Gore was basically abandoned early in last week's game as San Fran fell behind early and had to pass the ball against Green Bay.

This week will be a different story. He's going to get carries, and lots of them. Mike Singletary knows who his best player is, and will make sure that he's more heavily involved this week—especially considering he's facing a run D that has been beaten up by opposing backs all season.

On the other side, Maurice Jones-Drew has been absolutely stellar all season long. However, this week the Jags may not use him as much as they normally do. The reason? San Fran is the No. 6 overall run D in the NFL right now, and against the pass, they're a lowly No. 30.

That means David Garrard is going to have some opportunities to make some plays down the field and make San Fran pay for stacking the box against MJD.

This game could go either way, but I like San Fran to win. They stayed with Green Bay all of last week, and could have won that game, while Jacksonville barely got by Buffalo.

VERDICT: Frank Gore is going to run all day against the buttery soft run D of the Jags. 49ers get a W at home!

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings

Not a lot to say here. Chicago is struggling badly this season, on both sides of the ball, and things don't seem to be getting any better as the weeks go by. Cutler has been as pedestrian as I've seen any QB, and Matt Forte has forgotten how to hit the hole.

Minnesota is a great team, and will show up to play in this game. Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson will both have good days and make the Bears' and Lovie Smith's day extremely long.

VERDICT: Minny gets a relatively easy win at home.

Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans

The Vince Young experiment has been a success so far since his insertion into the lineup for the aging and painfully slow Kerry Collins.

Conversely, Matt Leinart, a member of the same draft class as Young, looked shaky and intimidated last week in backup duty for Kurt Warner.

The thing about this game is this: The Titans have the No. 1 rusher in the NFL right now, and with a mobile QB like Vince Young, they become even better. I laughed when Chris Johnson said they'd go 10-6 after starting 0-6. However, it's looking like he may have been right. Vince has been serviceable and has made the Titans more dynamic. We all know he's not going to beat you, but he can do enough to allow his teammates to.

At the time of this writing, Arizona is unsure about Kurt Warner's status. If he does start, I'd say that Arizona has the upper hand, as he can tear you apart. If he doesn't, and it's Leinart, the Cards' chances go down dramatically.

VERDICT: Operating on the assumption that Kurt Warner isn't available, I'm going with Tennessee.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens - Sunday Night Football

This is going to be a stellar game. It's a divisional matchup that always proves to be a good game. I could analyze it seven ways from Sunday; however, I feel that any analysis is kind of pointless because it all goes out the window when these two teams play.

Baltimore looks like the more beatable of the two, but Pittsburgh looks like they've kind of hit a bump in the road as well. Both teams have terrific defenses, and both have offenses that can either light opponents up, or just sneak by—depending on the week.

I like the Steelers here, only because they have the No. 1 rushing D in the NFL, and Baltimore's most potent offensive weapon is Ray Rice.

Pittsburgh can neutralize him, and probably will.

VERDICT: Pittsburgh gets a win on the back of their D in Baltimore.

New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints

This is going to be the best game of the week in my opinion. The Saints are 10-0 looking to make it 11-0 and the Patriots were riding this train just a couple of season ago.

I think the difference in this game is going to be the D. Both of these teams can score points in bunches and can make opposing defenses look silly for even trying. Drew Brees has maybe the most dynamic offense in the league, and Tom Brady's connection with Randy Moss is looking an awful lot like the connection they had in 2007.

This is going to be a back and forth game, and I think it will come down to the last possession. Both defenses are going to be under fire, and New Orleans' D is the one that looks more beatable to me. That's why I think Randy Moss and Tom Brady have good days and really make a statement going into the playoff crunch.

VERDICT: The winning streak stops at 10 for the Saints and New England gets a HUGE win in the dome.