Alabama-Auburn: Five Reasons Why Tigers Won't Topple The Tide

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There are five reasons why the Auburn Tigers will not upset Alabama in the Iron Bowl in 2009 as they did in 1989.

What you need to know:

How the 2009 Alabama and Auburn defenses match up.

The head-to-head common opponents the teams played over the year.

The historical records for first year head coaches in the Iron Bowl rivalry.

The match-up between Mark Ingram and Ben Tate.

The match-up between Nick Saban and Gene Chizik.

This article predicts the outcome based on historical facts and seasonal statistics.

#5 Defense

Alabama undoubtedly has the best defense, not only in the Southeastern Conference, but in all of college football.

With the names like Terrance Cody, Rolando McClain, and Javier Arenas on Alabama's defense, nothing more really needs to be said. Imagine what any defense would be like with these three incredible players.

In 1989, Auburn had the best defense in the SEC, and only gave up 117 points to opponents all season. Alabama's defense wasn't too shabby either, giving up only 189 points.

During the '89 season in SEC conference play Alabama's defense was shaky, giving up 130 points to SEC opponents, while Auburn gave up a minuscule 69 points.

In 2009, Auburn's defense has given up an outrageous 297 points to opponents versus Alabama's 109. In SEC games, Auburn has given up 162 points to opponents while Alabama has given up only 64 points.

Alabama's depth is a great advantage in its linebacking corps and in its secondary that is as quick as a thorough bread horse.

Advantage by a long-shot: Alabama

#4 Common Opponents

Alabama and Auburn played eight common opponents this season:

every SEC West team as well as Kentucky and Tennessee. I will highlight three of the top opponents out of the West and the two similar opponents from the East.

Against Arkansas:

Alabama's early offensive explosion against the Hogs saw them jump out to a 35-7 lead. Nick Saban shut down the Mallet attack and Arkansas's offense. Auburn was routed by the Hogs by a score of 44 to 23.

Arkansas jumped out to the 34-3 lead before the Tigers decided to show up in Fayetteville.

Advantage goes to: Alabama

Against LSU:

Alabama and LSU has become a intense rivalry under Saban.

The last two years have not been a competition about who has the better players. All of Saban's players are no longer from the Bayou. Instead they are up I-59 in Tuscaloosa.

The Tide started off slow but wore down the LSU offensive line and destroyed the entire backfield of LSU to go on to a 24-15 victory.

Auburn had to face the Tigers down on the Bayou for a Saturday night game.

Any SEC fan knows that it is not an easy task dealing with the crazy Cajuns on a Saturday night after a long day of drinking.

Auburn did not show up for the game and did not score a touchdown until late in the 4th quarter when many of the LSU starters were making their plans for late Saturday night. LSU 31 Auburn 10.

Advantage: Alabama

Against Tennessee:

This is the game that is tough to compare both teams because of the direction of the offenses. Alabama's offense did not show up when the Tide was driving into the Red Zone.

Thank goodness for the special teams player of the year, Leigh Tiffin, for being consistent, completing four-of-four field goals.

The Tide had to rely on the mammoth strength of Terrance Cody, he didn't just block one field goal, he blocked two, thus preserving the third straight victory over the prisoners from the North.

Auburn faced Tennessee at Neyland Stadium for a night game. Auburn's offense was able to move the ball efficiently against the Tiffin's Tampa Two defense and in turn got a big road win against Tennessee 26-22.

Advantage: Alabama, because their defense was consistent the whole game while Auburn gave up 22 points to a struggling Jonathon Crompton.

Against Kentucky:

Not much to say on this match-up. Alabama dominated from the beginning of the game with Mark Ingram taking it to the house 59 seconds into the game. The Alabama secondary again stepped up, running a touchdown back to help preserve a 38-20 victory on the road.

Auburn however, did the unthinkable: they LOST TO KENTUCKY AT HOME. How does one do that? Especially on your home field. Auburn went away looking less like the high powered offense that started the season and more like a struggling high school offense.

Advantage: Alabama

FCA Opponents- You may be wondering, why am I comparing the two FCA (Formerly known as Division 1-AA) teams.

I became intrigued by these two match-ups to see what kind of depth the two programs would have. Alabama matched up with U.T. Chattanooga and won easily 45-0. The defense was able to see the second and third string players in the game early with the offense transitioning to the second team players after the start of the second half.

Auburn played FCS opponent Furman. My question is, how in the world do you give up 31 points to a FCS opponent. I guess Tommy Tubberville enjoyed those extended duck hunting trips in Arkansas instead of recruiting for the future. Auburn was able to put up 60 against Furman, but an FCS team exposing the lack of depth of an already short-handed Auburn defense has led me to believe this will not be even a game between the Tide and Tigers.

Advantage: Alabama

#3-Record for First Year Coaches

The third reason why Auburn will not be able to upset Alabama in the Iron Bowl this year is the record for first year coaches in this game. This does not fare well for "Mean Gene."

The combined record between the two teams for first year head coaches in the rivalry— 3-12.

Advantage: Alabama

#2- Ingram vs. Tate

The statement that Ben Tate, running back for Auburn, made the other day saying, "he is the best running back in the state of Alabama" made me want to research and find out who is truly the better running between these two powerful runners?

Season statistics:

Rushing Yards — Mark Ingram—1399 yards
Ben Tate—1209 yards

Touches — Mark Ingram—205 carries
Ben Tate—225 carries

Yards Per Carry — Mark Ingram—6.8 yards per carry
Ben Tate—5.4 yards per carry

Touchdowns — Mark Ingram—12 TD's
Ben Tate—8 TD's

Season Long Run — Mark Ingram—70 yards
Ben Tate-60 yards

Ben Tate, you are a good running back with a lackluster offensive line, but you are by no means the best running back in the state. Check your numbers before running your mouth.

Advantage: Mark Ingram, Alabama

#1-The Coaches

The number one reason why 1989 will not take place in 2009 is pretty simple: the coaches.

Nick Saban has transformed Alabama in only three years. They are back to the team of the 70's. Alabama has had back-to-back 10 win seasons for the first time since 1973-1974.

Nick Saban is going for his unprecedented 2nd consecutive undefeated regular season.

That is unheard of in today's college football landscape.

Alabama will be going for its twenty-fourth consecutive regular season victory and sixteenth consecutive SEC win.

Saban has never defeated Auburn at Auburn, but he has never had the team like this one.

Gene Chizik has had a rough, but decent, start to his tenure at Auburn. Auburn defeated a strong and quick West Virginia team in a shootout, but weeks later they lost to Arkansas and Kentucky. He has come a long way from his 5-19 record.

Chizik has done an incredible job with recruiting in his first full year with the Tigers, but with the lack of depth created by his predecessor, he will be added to the first-year record making it: 3-13 for first year head coaches in the Iron Bowl rivalry.

Advantage goes once again to: Alabama