Baseball's Award Season: Who Should Win vs. Who Will Win

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If you had Andrew Bailey and Chris Coghlan in your office's baseball awards pool, congratulations: You are wiser than Nostradamus and the Mayans combined.

On Monday, the American and National Leagues announced their respective winners for Rookie of the Year, and few could have predicted the results.
Tight to the last, each race was considered a neck-and-neck battle, but most pundits backed vastly different contenders.

Throughout the regular and offseasons, names like Elvis Andrus and Rick Porcello were used in place of Rookie of the Year the same way people say Kleenex instead of facial tissue.

Just by listening to MLB Network and ESPN, it was clear the award would go to a Texas Ranger or Detroit Tiger.

Meanwhile, Bailey stepped comfortably into the closer's role for the Oakland A's after the team traded Huston Street and then watched Brad Ziegler go down with injury.

All he did was make the All-Star team and rack up a 1.84 ERA along the way.
Over in the NL, Tommy Hanson and J.A. Happ seemed to be alone in the RoY contest, with Happ as the frontrunner.

But it was Coghlan who was given the honor, and almost entirely due to his spectacular second half.

Coghlan hit .371 over the final 71 games of the season, bringing his rookie average to a stunning .321, and his 113 hits after the All-Star break were the most in all of baseball.

Derek Jeter's got nothing on this guy.

So, with two relative surprises in the bag, it got me to thinking: What can we expect from this week's four remaining categories?

Are the voters brave enough to continue shocking fans, or will they rely on old standbys to occupy familiar roles?

Take a look at who should win the next four awards versus who will.

Rest assured, MVP predictions will be on their way soon.

AL Cy Young—Tuesday, Nov. 17

Who Should Win: Zack Greinke

Talk about dominating. Greinke struck out 242 batters while walking just 51 in 229 1/3 innings. He also surrendered less than a home run per nine innings on his way to a Major League-leading 2.16 ERA.

The only thing holding him back might be his win-loss record. Greinke earned only 16 wins in 33 starts.

But to be fair, he did pitch for the Kansas City Royals, who provided some of the worst run support in the Majors.

To give you an idea of his sad fortune, or perhaps his tremendous accomplishments, Greinke pitched eight stellar innings in Angel Stadium, giving up one unearned run, and received the loss.

And those types of performances were far too common.

Who Will Win: Zack Greinke

Big Z carved his smoldering mark onto the memories of every opposing batter like Zorro, leaving nothing but embarrassed looks useless bats in his wake.

Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, and CC Sabathia are all being given serious consideration, and each might deserve to win in any other year. But none could match what Greinke did with such a terrible team around him.

AL Manager of the Year—Wednesday, Nov. 18

Who Should Win—AL: Mike Scioscia

There are several viable candidates for MoY in the American League, but none battled more strife to reach such great heights as Scioscia.

His Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim began the 2009 season in a deep hole, with John Lackey, Ervin Santana, and Vladimir Guerrero.

Three days later, that hole became a bottomless pit of sorrow when rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart was killed by a drunk driver just hours after tossing six shutout innings against the A's.

After the devastating loss, the Angels struggled through the first two months of the season. That is, until Sosh laid down the law and got his players back on track.

From then on, despite further injuries to stars like Torii Hunter and, once again, Guerrero, the Angels played incredible ball on their way to a third consecutive AL West title and a trip to the ALCS.

Who Will Win—AL: Mike Scioscia, Joe Girardi

The New York Yankees lead the Major Leagues in wins with 103, as well as a number of offensive categories.

Oh, and if anyone cares, they also won the World Series.

All of this makes Girardi a serious contender for MoY honors. Interesting, considering his job was in question after missing the playoffs last season and beginning this year on a terrible note.

Fortunately for him, the organization's 27th championship should buy at least a couple of years in job security.

What it shouldn't buy is a Manager of the Year award.

The same goes for Ron Gardenhire of the Minnesota Twins and Ron Washington of the Texas Rangers.

Gardenhire is one of the soundest minds in the game today, but his Twins underperformed for most of the season before rallying in September to overtake Detroit in the AL Central.

It was a nice season, and the one-game playoff against the Tigers was one for the ages, but rewarding a manager for what amounts to one big win is one big mistake.

Similarly, the Rangers gave the Angels a run for their money in the West. But in the end, Washington failed to reach the 90-win mark and finish no better than 10 games out of first place.

Scioscia is among esteemed company in this consideration, but he should have no trouble rising above them.

NL Manager of the Year—Wednesday, Nov. 18

Who Should Win—NL: Jim Tracy

The Colorado Rockies were 10 games below .500 when Tracy took over in late May.

They finished with 90-plus wins, beating out the San Francisco Giants for the Wild Card and nearly stealing the NL West from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

What more can you ask for?

True, Tracy did not spend a full season at the helm. However, he managed to completely turned around a losing team and come within two games of winning their division—and all with the exact same players.

Rarely, if ever, will you see such a dramatic change in a team after the manager has been fired.

Who Will Win—NL: Joe Torre, Jim Tracy

The only other manager who could even come close to staking a claim to this award is Torre, whose calm and measured influence could be felt every step of the way.

His Dodgers began the 2009 season with a 13-game winning streak and never gave up their divisional lead, despite the late-season surge by the Rockies.

Torre also guided his team through the dark days of Manny Ramirez's embarrassing game suspension.

Fifty games without your primary power provider is a long and unenvious time to wait, but Torre managed his remaining players to more wins than they had with Man-Ram.

Still, Tracy's accomplishments are more unbelievable, more incredible than anything Torre suffered through with the Dodgers.

The Rockies were one team before Clint Hurdle, and an entirely different team after him. And while new managers can eventually turn a losing franchise into a winning one, the process normally takes years, not days.

The Arizona Diamondbacks fired their manager early on in the season, so why aren't we talking about A.J. Hinch today? Because saving a in a single season is normally impossible.

Tracy made it happen, which is why he will likely win

NL Cy Young—Thursday, Nov. 19

Who Should Win: Chris Carpenter

Carpenter returned in a blaze of glory after missing parts of the 2007-2008 seasons, and the first five weeks of 2009, recovering from Tommy John surgery.

The St. Louis Cardinals' 2005 Cy Young winner had only four losses this year while winning 17 of his 28 starts, including an sparkling 11-1 over the final three and half months of the season.

He also fanned 144 batters in 192 2/3 innings against 38 walks, and lead the league with a 2.24 ERA.

Come Back Player of the Year? Absolutely.

Cy Young winner? In my mind, yes.

Who Will Win: Adam Wainwright

Sentimentality be damned, Wainwright outdueled his Cardinals teammate, and did so for a full season. In his 34 starts, St. Louis won 26 times and gave Wainwright a 19-8 record.

He may not have matched Carpenter's league-leading ERA, but he wasn't far behind with a 2.63 mark of his own.

Wainwright is also the proud owner of 212 strikeouts across 233 innings, proving he was not only durable, but effective throughout the season.

Often times, players on the same team will cancel each other out in terms of awards, voters finding it just too difficult to discern between teammates.

The Cardinals were well aware of that the year they had Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, and Scott Rolen all vying for MVP honors.

This year, however, Carpenter and Wainwright were easily the best pitchers in the National League. Voters might be tempted to give Tim Lincecum back-to-back awards, but in the end, they'll return to St. Louis