AFC North Predictions: Browns vs. Steelers

WhatIfSports.com by Columnist Written on June 11, 2008
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Baltimore Ravens (5-11)
The 2008 version of the Baltimore Ravens is almost exactly the same team that took the field in 2007. They went 5-11 in 2007 - and this is not a team that is "developing." They are simply getting older. The Ravens average 20.0 points per game (#28) and allow 27.2 points (#26) against a schedule featuring eight games against 2007 playoff teams.
Absolute Record: 2-14
Most Significant Newcomer: Ray Rice, RB - The former Rutgers standout is a potential workhorse back who can also catch the ball out of the backfield. Willis McGahee needs protection. Ready or not, Rice should be that guy in 2008. In the simulated season, Rice totals 394 yards and scores four touchdowns.
Biggest Strength: Name Recognition - This defense, with Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Bart Scott, Trevor Pryce, Kelly Gregg, Terrell Suggs (probably) and others, sounds much better than it is. We will count that as a strength though, because the defense obviously has plenty of experience and good football IQ. It could easily dominate a few games.
Most Exploitable Weakness: Passing Game - Everyone knows that Joe Flacco is the Ravens' answer for the future of their passing attack, but very few people know what that means for 2008. In this analysis, it means that Flacco, Kyle Boller and Troy Smith combine to throw 20 interceptions, while Derrick Mason watches another year of his career pass by.
Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Joe Flacco, QB - When he gets a chance to play later in the season, the Ravens will likely be behind often and have to throw the ball. Expect some mistakes, but he is a definite upgrade over Kyle Boller. In nine starts, the sim gives Flacco 2,094 yards, 12 TDs and nine interceptions. That's 3,722 yards, 21 TDs and 16 interceptions over a 16 game season. Sounds like a step in the right direction.
Closest Game: @ Houston (Week 2) - Both of these teams may be looking for their identities all year. A statistical dead heat in winning percentage, the team that prevails may ultimately be the one with the greater future.
Fantasy Notables: Joe Flacco (28) 2,094 yards, 12 TDs, 9 INTs; Willis McGahee (20) 1,456 yards, 11 TDs; Derrick Mason (32) 82 receptions, 870 yards, 6 TDs; Mark Clayton (39) 75 receptions, 832 yards, 4 TDs; Todd Heap (6) 71 receptions, 764 yards, 4 TDs; Matt Stover (22) 34/34 XPs, 26/29 FGs
Projected 2008 Results:

WeekOpponentWin%Avg Score
1 Cincinnati Bengals 45 24-26
2 @Houston Texans 50 19-24
3 Cleveland Browns 26 21-28
4 @Pittsburgh Steelers 29 17-29
5 Tennessee Titans 49 20-19
6 @Indianapolis Colts 11 17-35
7 @Miami Dolphins 43 19-28
8 Oakland Raiders 67 29-19
9 @Cleveland Browns 23 16-28
11 @New York Giants 17 16-29
12 Philadelphia Eagles 24 19-26
13 @Cincinnati Bengals 53 27-26
14 Washington Redskins 20 20-28
15 Pittsburgh Steelers 38 21-25
16 @Dallas Cowboys 8 16-40
17 Jacksonville Jaguars 33 20-26

 

Cincinnati Bengals (5-11)
Off the field issues - not just criminally, but in the locker room, the front office and in scouting - have caught back up with this franchise that has only made the playoffs once in the last 17 years. The truth is, Carson Palmer is capable of leading a team to a deep playoff run and it may just happen with the Bengals some season. The defense is too inexperienced and the running game has too many question marks for that season to be 2008. The Bengals average 22.2 points per game (#19) and allow 29.2 points (#31) against a schedule featuring eight games against 2007 playoff teams.
Absolute Record: 2-14 - Winning the first and last games of the season.
Most Significant Newcomer: Keith Rivers, LB - If Chad Johnson does not play all year for the Bengals, this could easily be Ben Utecht. For now though, we will highlight Rivers who has been tabbed to lead this defense in the same manner that fellow USC Trojan, Carson Palmer, has led the offense. Rivers will be one of the more productive rookies in 2008 with 109 total tackles and a sack. He and Jerod Mayo of New England should vie for Defensive Rookie of the Year honors.
Biggest Strength: Palmer - Carson Palmer seems to have "it." And he could use "it" to the fullest if he gets time in the pocket, has any semblance of a running game and has two or three NFL-caliber, healthy receivers on the field with him at all times.
Most Exploitable Weakness: Defense - One of the worst all-around defenses from 2007 has lost its three most productive players - Justin Smith (DE, SF), Madieu Williams (S, MIN) and Landon Johnson (LB, CAR) - so it is hard not to pick on the whole unit. Linebackers Rashad Jeanty and Ahmad Brooks have shown some good signs, yet neither can stay on the field. Deltha O'Neal, Dexter Jackson, Dhani Jones and John Thornton are all veterans who have had a good year or two each, but none has really stood out as a consistently, above-average NFL player. So, the defense is in the hands of a bunch of kids like Rivers, Jonathan Joseph, Leon Hall, Robert Geathers and Domata Peko who may or may not be in over their heads.
Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Ben Utecht, TE - Carson Palmer has rarely used the tight end in Cincinnati, but now the Bengals actually have one who has produced elsewhere. Utecht's numbers are largely contingent on the play of the wide receivers, but he should get at least 31 catches for 366 yards and three TDs (as he does in the simulated season). Rookie WRs Jerome Simpson or Andre Caldwell could be turned to fill Chris Henry and/or Chad Johnson's voids as well. On the flip side, it is wise to stay away from all Cincinnati RBs.
Closest Game: Baltimore (Week 13) - The two bad teams in the AFC North look to split the regular season series. By now, Joe Flacco should be starting for Baltimore, so it will be a better team and a tougher opponent than in Week 1.
Fantasy Notables: Carson Palmer (6) 4,061 yards, 27 TDs, 17 INTs; Rudi Johnson (37) 949 total yards, 6 TDs; T.J. Houshmandzadeh (9) 114 receptions, 1,217 yards, 7 TDs; Chad Johnson (21) 67 receptions, 1,002 yards, 6 TDs; Ben Utecht (21) 31 receptions, 336 yards, 3 TDs; Shayne Graham (18) 38/38 XPs, 26/31 FGs
Projected 2008 Results:

WeekOpponentWin%Avg Score
1 @Baltimore Ravens 55 26-24
2 Tennessee Titans 45 23-24
3 @New York Giants 19 17-32
4 Cleveland Browns 18 22-29
5 @Dallas Cowboys 8 17-39
6 @New York Jets 36 24-32
7 Pittsburgh Steelers 33 25-28
9 Jacksonville Jaguars 35 25-29
10 @Houston Texans 35 23-34
11 Philadelphia Eagles 27 21-26
12 @Pittsburgh Steelers 34 19-30
13 Baltimore Ravens 47 26-27
14 @Indianapolis Colts 15 19-35
15 Washington Redskins 29 22-28
16 @Cleveland Browns 19 16-32
17 Kansas City Chiefs 69 28-17

 

Click here to view a schedule of 2008 NFL previews and see others that have been posted.  The AFC East article on BleacherReport can be found here.

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written on June 11, 2008 Preview/Prediction

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