MINNESOTA (-16.5) 36 Detroit 15
Minnesota is a bit vulnerable on defense, allowing 5.4 yppl to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team, but Detroit may not be good enough offensively to take advantage - even with WR Calvin Johnson back in the lineup. Detroit is 0.9 yppl worse than average for the season and I rate the Lions at 0.5 yppl worse than average with Johnson and Detroit only averaged 4.0 yppl against the Vikings in a 13-27 home loss.
Minnesota was still playing very conservatively offensively in week 2, with Brett Favre throwing only very short passes, but Favre has opened it up since then and the Lions don't appear capable of slowing down what is now a potent and well-balanced Vikings' attack.
Minnesota is also likely to bust a big play or two with their great special teams against the horrible Lions' coverage teams. My math model favors Minnesota by 22 points, but laying big points is a bit too risky to make the Vikings a Best Bet here.
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