Week 10: NFL Picks & Predictions

I pick 'em every week and have for years. This season, I’ve been doing most of my picks right here on bleacherreport.com and also over at my site at www.sports-uncut.com.

Going into last week (nine), I was a solid if unspectacular 82-35, good for a 70.0 percent accuracy rate. Last season was my personal best of 80 percent. This year, I'm looking to improve that!

Over the last two weeks, I've been good, going 21-5 and I finished Week Nine with a solid 11-2 record, not bad by my standards.

This week marks the first week of Thursday Night Football on NFL network when the Bears travel to San Fran., and I'm hoping that I don't have to hear any more of Gumble than necessary.....

It's a new week, so let's get on with it!

As always, I’m not picking the spread here folks; I’m picking the straight up winner.

Record

Record from Two Weeks Previous (Eight): 10-3

Record from Last Week (Nine): 11-2

Record coming into Week (10): 93-37 (71.5 percent)

Now that the records are out of the way, let's get right to it!

Thursday Night Football - Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers

Chicago is coming off of an absolute drubbing at the hands of the Cardinals and one Kurt Warner, who torched the Bears D for 260+ yards and five....count one, two, three, four FIVE TD's.

Oddly, Jay Cutler has been under a lot of scrutiny in the "Windy City" for not leading his team to a better record and stronger start. However, I think that's somewhat unfair.

Matt Forte has looked like a newbie out there, and hasn't been able to get anything going, meaning he's smack dab in the middle of the dreaded "Sophomore Slump".

Add to that the fact that there's still no legitimate threat at the wide receiver spot for Cutler, and no, I don't consider Devin Hester, Johnny Knox or Earl Bennett legitimate threats.

Cutler has been a bright spot for the Bears this season, however, with limited weaponry, even the smartest General is destined for failure.....

On the other side of the field, the lone bright spot on the 49er roster has been Frank Gore (when he's been healthy) and has really turned the corner as a threat out of the backfield, and that showed last week with his 75 yards receiving.

The San Fran D however has been lacklustre after showing some fight and gumption early this season.

And, unfortunately, I think that's where the 9ers end up stumbling. Without a D, as we all know, you're in trouble and this week, even with the Bears visiting (who have serious issues of their own), they could be in for a long day.

Alex Smith will have the opportunity to beat the porous Chicago D, but he just won't do enough.

VERDICT: Jay Cutler will exploit San Fran's 24th ranked passing D, and will lead the Bears to an important win in the bay.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

There’s not much to say here. The Lions are on the path back to respectability, however, for then to get there ol' Matty Stafford can't be throwing 5 int's per game.

The Vikings are a tough squad, and right now may be the #2 team in the NFC behind only the Saints.

Brett Favre is holding up and Adrian Peterson is Adrian Peterson, and Rookie of The Year candidate Percy Harvin is emerging as a star for the Vikes. This one probably won't be very close.

VERDICT: Detroit is bad, and Minnesota isn't. Brett Favre is going to throw all over the Lions...err...Kitty Cats whenever AP isn't running all over them.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Last week, I said that Michael Turner would thoroughly dominate the Redskins D, and he did just that averaging 9.2 ypc on 18 attempts, going for 166 yards and two scores.

The thing that bodes well for him this week, is that he's facing a run D that ranks basically the same (23rd as oppose to 25th) as the Redskins.

So, I expect another big day from him because the Panthers do sport the #six overall passing D.

Carolina, right now, is a team in flux and it's directly related to their quarterback. Jacke Delhomme has been absolutely Tim Couch-esque this season, and that's been a HUGE problem for the Panthers.

Steve Smith has been largely uninvolved, and the lone bright spots have been Johnathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams.

That said, Atlanta is currently ranked #24 against the run and #27 against the pass, so, Delhomme and company will pretty much have their choice on how they want to attack the Falcons, and my guess is that J-Stew and D-Will will be running all day.

However, you can't count "Matty Ice" out of anything. He's the next superstar quarterback in the NFL.

He shows more poise as a second year guy than some 10 year vets do, and when the chips are down, dude can ball. He has a ton of options with Turner, White, Jenkins and Gonzo, and the guys makes plays.

VERDICT: This should be a close game, but, I like Atlanta to go in and get a win against a team still trying after nine weeks, to find an identity.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins

Last week, the Tampa Buccaneers, in the creamsicle throwbacks, eeked out a win against the Green Bay Packers on the shoulders of rookie quarterback Josh Freeman.

Freeman was a little erratic at times with his passes, but, for being week one under C, and not playing a game for almost a year, I thought he did a tremendous job.

He finished the day 14/31, 205 yards and three touchdown's. For you fantasy players, that should make Antonio Bryant a little more valuable moving forward.

The Miami Dolphins on the other hand were actually pretty bad last week, and got torched by the trio of Brady, Moss and Maroney pretty easily.

For some reason, Ronnie Brown has not been playing very well over the last two games. This week however, could be the cure.

The Dolphins are the #one running team in the NFL with Ricky and Ronnie doing their thing, and matching up against the #30 overall run D will only make them better this week.

And, running may be what they have to do to get the W, as the Bucs have a pass D in the upper half of the league, and Chad Henne is still learning the game.

VERDICT: This too will prove to be a good game, however, it's back to reality for the Bucs. I think the Duo of Ricky and Ronnie get this job done this week.

New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams

Can anyone say 9-0? I can assure you that the Saints will be after this game. St. Louis is NOT a good team. Hell, they're not even an average team, and they're expected to hold New Orleans and the dynamic Drew Brees in check?? Yeah right.

Steven Jackson will have a decent day, and may even get in the end zone, however, the Rams just cannot score along with Saints. They don't have the horses to compete in this one. Sorry Rams fans....

VERDICT: Drew Brees and the Saints will dominate in this game and will get an easy win to improve to 9-0.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets

Every week I mention the power of the bye, and I'm going to talk about it again here. The Jet's are coming off a bye, and as always, that means they've had 2 weeks the scheme and get healthy prior to this game.

Make no mistake about it, Sexy Rexy has heard the criticism's and I can assure you that he'll have his team not only ready to go, but also playing with some fire.

The Jags are coming of a close win against the Chiefs, and the were a little banged up in that game.

The fact of the matter here is though, the Chiefs are nowhere near the calibre of team that the Jets are, and this week I presume we'll be seeing that on display.

Thomas Jones should have a good day, and Braylon Edwards, after having a week to digest all the new info, could be better this week too.

VERDICT: The J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets show up with a purpose in this game well rested and ready to go and get the W at home.

Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans

Vince Young's recent insertion into the lineup in place of Kerry Collins has certainly paid off to this point.

Young is 2-0 as a starter and has looked pretty decent in his return. In two games, ol' Vinny is 27 for 42 with 297 yards and one touchdown, as well as one rushing touchdown. He has a rating right now of 83.1, and that's not bad.

The real story however has been Chris Johnson who to this point, has 969 rushing yards with six touchdowns and 162 receiving yards with one touchdown.

He's the catalyst for this Titans team, and this week, I expect another HUGE game out of him as Buffalo has the worst run D in the league. Yep, that means they rank #32.....sad.

Buffalo won't compete in this game. Their running game is a mess, their quarterback play has been horrid all season and defensively, they just look lost at times. This will be a long day for the Bills.

VERDICT: Vinny and Chris have their way with the horrid Buffalo D and get a win at home.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

I'm a little in the air as to where to go on this one. The Bengals have been playing good football, and with Chris Henry out, call me crazy, I think they're better.

Cedric Benson has emerged as a legitimate stud in the NFL this season and Ocho Cinco is back.

On the other side, the most overrated quarterback in the game is having a great season, and the emergence of Rashard Mendenhall has solidified the running game, while Mike Wallace, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes for a nice threesome of wide receiver's for Ben to find.

This game could go either way, so I like to look at matchups. Cincinnati has a stout rushing D, currently ranked #two overall, while Pittsburgh has the #one overall running D.

Pittsburgh's passing D is currently ranked 14th, while Cincy's is ranked 25th.

However, you can throw all that out the window in this one. This is a late season divisional matchup, and both Cincy and Pittsburgh know how important this game is, especially since Cincy stole one from the Steelers earlier in the season.

VERDICT: I think this is going to be a phenomenal game, and I like Palmer, Ocho, Benson and the D to get it done at the "Ketchup Bottle".

Denver Broncos at Washington Redskins

Washington is almost as bad as my beloved Cleveland Browns right now, but not quite. They're down their starting running back in Clinton Portis, Chris Cooley is gone and Jason Campbell is banged up as well.

On Monday night, I think we learned two things about the Broncos:
1. They're not as good as everyone thinks they are. The running game is lacklustre at this point, unlike what they were at the beginning of the season and Kyle Orton has been gotten to several times, making him succeptable to the INT.

No pocket = no time = bad throws = INT's. Defensively, they've cooled too. The reasons for this are simple and leads me to.....

2. They've become terribly predictable over the last couple of weeks. When it's run, run, short pass in the play progression more than 70% opf the time, teams will cue in and elminate the ability to work.

Proof of that can be seen in the fact that they've only scored one offensive touchdown in the last two games. Defensively, they're just on the field too long.

All that said, there's no way that anyone in his/her right mind would pick Washington over Denver. Denver's D is a Top 10 unit, and makes enough plays to get a win, even if the offense doesn't help.

VERDICT: The Broncos get back on track with a win against the lowly Redskins.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders

Not much to say here. This is the battle in futility for the week.

Both of these teams are bad, and one's just less bad than the other,and that's the Kansas City Chiefs. Oakland is a horrid team and KC is just a smidgen better, so, I like them.

VERDICT: Matt Cassel will hook up at least once with either Bowe and/or Chambers and Jamaal Charles showed why LJ was expendable.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

I’m sure this is going to be a pretty good game. Green Bay is coming of a loss at the hands of the Buccaneers and they'll be looking for a little redemption in this one.

Conversely, Dallas used the bye week a while back to their advantage and definitely got on the right page and have come out refocused. Witten has been involved, Williams has been involved and everything is looking good there.

Green Bay on the other hand seems to be falling apart a little bit. Their D is a Top 10 unit, however, the just haven't been real successful, and last week let a rookie torch them.

Aaron Rodgers is solid as is Donald Driver, but, this team just seems like they have a hitch in their giddy-up to me.

I think Green Bay will be ready for the game, but I think Dallas will too, and base of what I've seen from both of these teams recently, I have to give the edge to the Cowboys. That said, the environment at Lambeau will make a huge difference in this game.

VERDICT: Tony Romo and the Cowboys offense make enough plays to win this game, while the D is able to keep Aaron Rodgers at bay and humanlike.

Philadelphia Eagles at San Diego Chargers

The Eagles are notorious for letting opportunities slip away and in the waning moments of a game, as was evident last week against the Cowboys, when they lost at home.

Of course, there was no Brian Westbrook and the rookie, LeSean McCoy could only do so much.

Dallas' passing D is ranked 20th, San Diego's is currently ranked #5 overall. That tells me that this weak could be tough sledding through the air for the Eagles.

Not to mention, even with Westbrook back, Andy Reid has been on record as stating that he'll have an "easy day", meaning he's not out there the entire game.

That sets up nicely for the Chargers who, as of late, have been playing good football on the arm of Philip Rivers.

Rivers has matured into a Top Five NFL quarterback, and is likely going to lead the Chargers into a playoff contending spot by the end of the season. Hell, they may even catch Denver.

VERDICT: The Eagles are beatable, the Chargers have them at home and Philip Rivers can throw on anyone. Chargers get a big win.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

This game could go either way. Earlier this season I predicted Seattle to easily beat Arizona, and the Cardinals somehow channeled their inner 2008 Steeler in their defensive performance.

This go round, I'm going with the Cardinals. Here's why.....

The Cardinals now have some resemblance of a team that can run the football. Chris Wells is starting to come into his own, and with Anquan Boldin back healthy, Seattle doesn't have the manpower to cover all facets of Arizona's attacking offense.

That said, the Cards do currently rank 29th against the pass, and matt hasselbeck has shown that, if given time, he can pick apart anyone with surgical like skill.

The problem is he won't be getting anymore time this week than he did the first time, and he's still lacking a true running game to help balance the offensive attack.

VERDICT: The Cardinals win a close one at home.

Sunday Night Football - New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts

This is going to be a stellar game. It doesn't matter whether your a Patriots fan, a Colts fan or just a football fan. This is going to be a game to remember. It always is when these two teams get together!

Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts have been perhaps the most consistently productive teams in the league both on the Offensive and Defensive side of the football.

New England has been up and down all season, but they've started to settle into a groove that's allowed them to win a couple in a row, and have started to actually use the running game a little more.

I think what this game comes down to is this, both teams have Top 10 Pass D's and both teams have serviceable Run D's.

However, New England can be beat on the ground, currently ranking 20th overall in Run D, and that could be where this one plays out.

Joe Addai has looked very good this year, and with unexpected contributions coming at the wide receiver spot from Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, the Colts have been able to flourish.

But, perhaps the most underrated part of the Colts is Dallas Clark, how is the best TE in the league right now, bar none. He's always open and Peyton likes throwing his direction, as evidenced last week in his 13 receptions.

Tome Brady and Randy Moss are a dynamic pairing and can absolutely kill you before your coordinator even knew what happened, and if they get hot, this could be a shootout.

And yes, I'm fully aware of the fact that Brady has the advantage head to head against Manning, but I don't know how much weight those numbers actually carry this week.

The Colts are staring 9-0 in the face, and are certainly going to do whatever they can to get there.

VERDICT: Indianapolis and Peyton Manning find a way to get the win in the "Oil Can" or Lucas Oil Stadium.

Monday Night Football - Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

This is real simple....

Cleveland = Really bad team. Horribly coached, unmotivated, lacking a leader and ready for the season to end.

Baltimore = Good team still in thick of a playoff berth and ready to dominate.

Word is the Browns fans are going to protesting the managemnet and Coach Mangini by not being there when the game kicks off.

If that happens, I can tell you this; I will be proud of them. Because as a Browns fan, I can honestly say that I am sick and tired of losing, and everyone in Cleveland is too.

After this blowout, Eric Mangini ought to start packing his bags because I feel like it won't be long after that he'll be gone! I say, good riddance!

VERDICT: The Browns get beat. Badly.