AFC East Predictions—Season Simulated 1,000 Times

New York Jets (7-9)
The Jets made some great additions to the offensive line and backfield to improve the running game. And a good draft plus some addition by subtraction gives the defense players who better fit the 3-4 scheme. However, without a downfield passing game and with question marks at defensive tackle and corner, New York cannot compete with New England and Buffalo, nor breach .500. The Jets average 22.1 points per game (#20) and allow 24.2 points (#19) against a schedule featuring five games against 2007 playoff teams.
Absolute Record: 6-10
Most Significant Newcomer: Alan Faneca, G - He may have been around for a while, but he has made seven Pro Bowls and aided Pittsburgh's often top-rated rushing attack in his ten seasons. Faneca, Damien Woody, another new guard the team added, and Tony Richardson, a fullback who often plays like a guard, should greatly help to open up the inside rushing lanes for Thomas Jones.
Biggest Strength: Pass Rush - With Shaun Ellis, Calvin Pace, Vernon Gholston, David Harris, Kerry Rhodes and others, the Jets can attack the quarterback from any angle.
Most Exploitable Weakness: Passing Game - As alluded to earlier, the Jets cannot complete passes downfield. When Chad Pennington is in the game at quarterback, he has great accuracy, but is severely hindered by a weak and fragile arm. Kellen Clemens has the big arm, yet has not been able to harness it when going long. Laveranues Coles has also been limited to a possession receiver in the last few years. If new TE Dustin Keller can occupy the middle, Kellen Clemens steals the starting job from Pennington (or waits for an injury), the running game keeps defenses guessing more and the Jets find a deep threat out of Jerricho Cotchery, Chansi Stuckey, Wallace Wright and/or Marcus Henry, this could be a vastly improved offense. That is a lot of ifs.
Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Jesse Chatman, RB - Not only does Chatman's acquisition solidify the running back position as a position of strength for the Jets, it could free up Leon Washington to be used more creatively. The simulations have Chatman at 638 total yards and seven touchdowns and Washington at 474 yards and three touchdowns.
Closest Game: St. Louis Rams (Week 10) - With a team like the Jets that appears very good at some things and poor at others, every matchup can be interesting. The simulated season actually has New York on the wrong end of four games that are within a 15% margin between favorite and underdog. Against the Rams, expect a big day out of Torry Holt and Marc Bulger in a game featuring two very different teams.
Fantasy Notables: Chad Pennington (29) 1,468 yards, 11 TDs, 6 INTs; Kellen Clemens (34) 1,275 yards, 8 TDs, 6 INTs; Thomas Jones (25) 1,325 total yards, 10 TDs; Jerricho Cotchery (23) 64 receptions, 983 yards, 6 TDs; Dustin Keller (27) 29 receptions, 329 yards, 2 TDs; Bubba Franks (28) 25 receptions, 315 yards, 2 TDs; Mike Nugent (21) 38/38 XPs, 26/29 FGs
Projected 2008 Results:

Miami Dolphins (5-11)
Coming off of one of the worst seasons in the history of the NFL, this is not the year that Bill Parcells makes Miami into a Super Bowl contender; but, they should improve (the odds are very much against getting worse). The Dolphins average 19.9 points per game (#29) and allow 28.3 points (#29) against a schedule featuring just four games against 2007 playoff teams.
Absolute Record: 2-14
Most Significant Newcomer: Bill Parcells - There already have and will continue to be so many comings and goings with this team that the credit here has to go to the guy making the moves. From the coaching staff to the roster, Parcells is calling the shots now and he is trying to bring in "his" guys.
Biggest Strength: Hope - The offensive line has been rebuilt and Ronnie Brown looks healthy; but, it would not be fair to teams with real strengths to choose any facet of Miami's game here. Instead, it is hope that will make this team better and interesting to watch. They know that they are almost guaranteed of being better than last year. There is a lot of young talent here that was great in college and there are some great football minds running the team. So, "hope" is what can carry this team.
Most Exploitable Weakness: Passing Game - This is more because of inexperience at quarterback and wide receiver than anything. Just because I think Chad Henne will be a good NFL quarterback (far better than Matt Ryan) and, just because I would love to see what a healthy Ted Ginn Jr. could do if he had some consistency (and a strong arm) throwing him the ball, and just because I liked watching Derek Hagan make great plays at Arizona State does not mean that they will put it all together this year. Who knows? It could even be John Beck to David Kircus or Josh McCown to Greg Camarillo all year.
Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Anthony Fasano, TE - By fantasy league draft day, this may not be too deep of a sleeper. Parcells gets his Bavaro (or Witten, or Coates, etc.) with Fasano, a player he picked in the second round of the 2006 draft and then traded for in February.
Closest Game: @ Denver (Week 9) - We are not saying that Miami will win this game, but it could be much closer than expected. The fact is that there are not many games from which to choose. The only two games where Miami is favored, hosting Baltimore and at Kansas City, they should have a pretty good chance of winning. Outside of games against Denver, Houston and St. Louis, the Dolphins' chances look pretty bleak.
Fantasy Notables: John Beck (30) 1,486 yards, 9 TDs, 6 INTs; Chad Henne (37) 1,158 yards, 7 TDs, 6 INTs; Ronnie Brown (25) 1,500 total yards, 11 TDs; Ted Ginn Jr. (46) 46 receptions, 751 yards, 4 TDs; Ernest Wilford (27) 67 receptions, 733 yards, 4 TDs; Anthony Fasano (17) 40 receptions, 479 yards, 3 TDs; Jay Feely (28) 34/34 XPs, 24/28 FGs
Projected 2008 Results:

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