Big East College Football Preview: The "Big Least" No More

So...about those plans to make the ACC a football power conference...

Listen, who would you rather have right now—Miami or South Florida?  Never mind the name recognition—USF's going to be good for a while.  Louisville and Cincinnati are capable replacements for VA Tech and Boston College, UConn's coming around, and even Rutgers is doing quite nicely.

Rather than pining for Temple to come back, the Big East is bouncing back.  They've also beefed up their bowl record—in large part thanks to some less than lucrative tie-ins.

The one knock is that Big East teams do not play anybody of worth outside of conference.  This year, though, there are some solid out of conference tests (West Virginia vs. Auburn, South Florida vs. Kansas, Louisville vs. Kansas State, Oklahoma vs. Cincinnati).

This conference is on its way towards regaining its respectability...well, except for Syracuse.

 

CINCINNATI

One of the biggest sleeper teams of recent years, the Bearcats are no longer being overlooked.  Coach Brian Kelly's name was in the mix for the Michigan job, but he's still in Cincy, and there's a buzz starting to grow around this football program.

Ben Mauk was denied an 18th year of eligibility, but QB Dustin Grutza has experience and should be able to lead this team, provided he shows a tad bit of mobility for Kelly's offense.

On defense, Mike Mickens is a solid player in the secondary, but there are some question marks around the other starters.  Overall, this looks like a solid team, but they might take a brief step back due to some O-line issues and if Grutza doesn't pan out as well as some would hope.

Notable games

• Sep. 6 @ Oklahoma: Wow, talk about a tester.  A win here would shoot Cincy right up into the top 10 and be heralded as the banner win for them and the Big East.  As such, the Cats should be content at least to give the Sooners a good game.  It's a very interesting tilt, but Sam Bradford and OU are much too talented and good at the start of the year to lose at home
• Oct. 30 vs. South Florida: USF lost at home to Cincy to cap its midseason tailspin, and they'll be looking for revenge.  It'll be a really quick turnaround, since UC's playing at UConn five days before.
• Nov. 8 @ West Virginia: They played the Mountaineers close at Nippert last year but couldn't seal the deal—now they'll have a chance to pull a mega-upset in Morgantown

Trap games

• Sep. 27 @ Akron: Every once in a while, a team that's not used to respect outgrows itself and lays an egg in a winnable game.  Call it a hunch, but a road game against an in-state opponent with nothing to lose could be trouble.  Akron, save for last year, has been pretty good in the past.
• Oct. 25 @ UConn: The Huskies are legit enough to win this game, yet still under the radar enough to slip past the Bearcats' attention, especially with USF coming to town a mere five days later.
• Dec. 6 @ Hawaii: I don't think the Warriors will be any good, and this is simply an add-on game for Cincy, but they'd better get over the jet lag and play well if they want to end up in a good bowl game.

Prediction

Cincy's schedule works out all right, save for the Oklahoma road game.  I like this team a lot, and they would have done even more last year were it not for a head-scratching loss against Louisville.

If they can get past the road landmines at Akron and Marshall, and hold on to beat Rutgers at home, they'll be 5-1 and sitting pretty before an off week.  If they sweep UConn and USF, they'll be 7-1 and in the Big East title mix before an off week.

I think it breaks down over the next three weeks (@ WVU, @ L'vl, vs. Pitt)—and that RU beats them in Nippert early—but they sweep the last two to slip into a bowl.

RECORD: 8-5 (3-4)

 

CONNECTICUT

Quick—name the Big East Co-Champions of 2007.

West Virginia's easy.  The other?

Not once No. 2 USF.  Not "traditional" power Louisville.  Not rising power Rutgers.  Not talented Pitt.

It's UConn—and no, we're not talking about basketball.  Randy Edsall's gridiron Huskies pulled off one of the bigger surprises of 2007.

Never mind that they needed two of the worst calls in officiating history (vs. Temple and vs. Louisville) to get there.  They played hard—especially on defense—and got the job done.

This year, they have a lot of returning starters, including QB Tyler Lorenzen and WR/QB D.J. Hernandez, but they lose LB Danny Lansanah.  The key this year will be finding consistency and a little pop on offense.

Notable games

• Sep. 13 vs. Virginia: Hosting an ACC opponent who's at about the same level provides a solid litmus test for these Huskies.  If they're legit, they'll win this game.  The game vs. Baylor the next week is much the same—and it's at home, so they have to use this to their advantage.
• Nov. 1 vs. West Virginia: The Mountaineers have to come to East Hartford to play, and the crowd is going to be jacked up.  WVU always has a worldbeater team but finds a way to slip up against an inferior opponent somewhere along the way.  Could this be the game?
• Dec. 6 vs. Pittsburgh: How in the world did the scheduling gods let this one happen?  One week after the Backyard Brawl (WVU vs. Pitt), the Panthers have to go on the road to play UConn.  This has trap game written all over it.

Trap games

• Sep. 6 @ Temple: Al Golden has the Owls playing much more competitively, and don't think that they've forgotten—they should have won this game last year.  This is a bad game to lose on paper, but Temple's got enough and UConn may struggle enough offensively to make it possible.
• Nov. 15 @ Syracuse: The Orange are not going to be good this year, but this is a home game late in the year against a mid-tier Big East opponent.  If they were going to rise up and feel that they belonged on the same field as some team, it would probably be UConn.

Prediction

UConn won't get as many breaks as they did last year.  They're going to have to make them—and they can, thanks to that solid defense (e.g., turnovers, three & outs).  That said, the offense is going to have to step things up in a big way if they're going to contend.

I foresee a quick start (4-0), then a mid-season crash (4-5) shored up by a spirited performance against WVU, before holding off Syracuse and stunning Pitt on the last day of the season to even out their record.

RECORD: 6-6 (2-5)

 

LOUISVILLE

Bobby "The Traveling Salesman" Petrino's gone for good.  He's on his second job since ditching the Cardinals, but knowing him there's always a chance he'll come back—for the money.

Nevertheless, this is now Steve Kragthorpe's team—and he's got to put his money where his mouth is after last year's debacle.

"Debacle" is a strong term for a 6-6 team that did beat a legit Cincinnati team on the road.  But considering what this team had on offense and the firepower it displayed in the first two games of the season, a lot more was expected.

Hunter Cantwell can play well—he showed that in the Gator Bowl a couple years ago—and I think he'll be a pleasant surprise for the Cards.

But who will he throw to?  Harry Douglas and Mario Urrutia are gone.  Who will he hand it off to?  Anthony Allen's transferring and George Stripling is suspended.

I have a feeling that Kragthorpe, who is no slouch as an offensive coach, will find a way, but it will be up to new D-coordinator Ron English to inspire a defense that got shredded last year.  Based on his last year at Michigan, results could be mixed.

The schedule's nice, though, so it's possible that Louisville could bounce back in a big way.

Notable games

• Aug. 30 vs. Kentucky: Let's get this settled right away.  UK's stunner in the final minute last year really set the Cards back—so much so that they lost the very next week to lowly Syracuse.  There is no FCS sacrificial lamb the week before, so this should set the tone for the year right away.
• Oct. 25 vs. South Florida: The Bulls are among the Big East's elite, so a win would reestablish the Cardinals among that class.  They're coming to the Pizza Box (Papa John's Stadium) to play, and it should be a great strength vs. strength matchup—USF's D vs. UofL's O.
• Nov. 22 vs. West Virginia: This one is always worth the price of admission—points will be scored aplenty.  At home, Louisville might be able to spring an upset and make the Big East championship race fun again.

Trap games

• Sep. 27 vs. Connecticut: This is an early Big East game, sandwiched between some off weeks and the non-conference schedule.  They'd best not blow off the Huskies—UConn's D is strong enough to pull the upset.
• Oct. 18 vs. Middle Tennessee: Last year's game vs. the Blue Raiders showed how vulnerable the Cardinal D could be, and really set the tone for the year to come on that side of the ball.  They ought not sleep on this team again.
• Nov. 1 @ Syracuse: 38-35.  It's a revenge game for Louisville, but it's also in between games vs. USF and at Pitt, so it could be overlooked.

Prediction

Hunter Cantwell has what it takes to lead Louisville, Brock Bolen should be able to step up into the role of lead RB, and the rest of the offense will click so long as they believe in the QB.

The defense, on the other hand, will have to gel very quickly.  They have time (save for the UConn game) before the meat of the Big East schedule, and all of those games are at home (save for a trip to Memphis), including an interesting non-conference matchup against Kansas State.

I see a quick 6-0 start as this team gels before tangling with USF in the 'Ville.  I foresee a loss to the Bulls, but an upset over WVU at home, before falling at RU.

RECORD: 9-3 (4-3)

 

PITTSBURGH

I've never been a fan of pro head coaches making the move to college—it rarely works out in the long run.  Add to it that Dave Wannstedt wasn't even that good of a head man in the NFL, and I was skeptical of his chances at Pitt.

He hasn't proven me wrong...but if he has done something right, it has been to get a ton of talent to come to the Steel City.  Now can they all work together, stay healthy, and somehow duplicate the magic of that 13-9 stunner at West Virginia to ruin their bitter rivals' season?

If they get settled at QB with either Pat Bostick or Bill Stull, and LeSean McCoy stars at RB—and the defense plays like they did that last game—they'll probably go bowling.

Notable games

• Sep. 20 vs. Iowa: Interesting out of conference game—while the Hawkeyes might not be the cream of the Big Ten's crop, they will provide a good test early for the Panthers.
• Oct. 25 vs. Rutgers: Ray Rice is no longer there to bedevil Pitt.  He exploded for 225 yards the last time the Knights played in Heinz Field.  A home win here is essential if they hope to contend for a BCS berth.
• Nov. 28 vs. West Virginia: You did it in Morgantown—can you hold serve against an angry and bitter rival at home?  This one will be fierce.

Trap games

• Sep. 27 @ Syracuse: Yes, I think the Orange are going to be horrid again, but in a conference opener, who knows?  We saw what happened to Louisville last year.  A bad loss like this could send Pitt's season spiraling out of control and send Dave Wannstedt to the unemployment line.
• Oct. 18 @ Navy: The Mids stunned Pitt last year on a Friday night.  Now the Panthers travel to Annapolis for an interesting road tilt.
• Dec. 6 @ Connecticut: Again, the scheduling gods have something out for Pitt and WVU, slating a game the week after the Backyard Brawl.  This is the sort of game that an unseasoned team will likely overlook.

Prediction

I really think that Pitt can do well this year, but it depends on a lot of things falling into place.  They have the talent, but they need the leadership both on the field and on the sidelines.  Lost among the talent on offense is the question of whether the defense can actually show up for 12 games.

Overall, I think they'll roll along before stumbling in a sandwich game at Notre Dame, then lose a tussle with WVU and fall flat against UConn as the Huskies fight for a possible bowl.

RECORD: 8-4 (4-3)

 

RUTGERS

The Birthplace of College Football is finally rocking, but the headliner has gone to the green pastures of the NFL.  It's now Mike Teel's team, and he's got the weapons at wideout, especially Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood, to make a big splash.

Last year, Teel didn't quite show the signs of being able to carry the team on his own, making more mistakes than a Big East contender ought to make.  However, there's enough talent returning that, if he matures, should be able to keep RU playing in the postseason.

That would make it the fourth bowl game in a row for Greg Schiano and the once moribound Knights, but they'd better be careful with a couple of live grenades of non-conference games.  The defense should be decent, but kicker Jeremy "Judge" Ito is also gone—his replacement is a redshirt freshman.

Notable games

• Sep. 1 vs. Fresno State: A big improvement over their game against Norfolk State last year, the Knights have a very hungry and typically opportunistic Fresno State squad first up in what should be an intriguing out of conference matchup.  This will be Teel's first test to see if he's got what it takes to lead the team on his own, and he'd better not come out too flat—because FSU can spring this upset.
• Oct. 4 @ West Virginia: Last year, a 31-3 laugher at home closed out any hopes RU had of contending for the Big East title.  They'll be looking for a much better performance this time around, especially on offense.  It will be WVU's first conference game of the year, and they've drawn a tough opponent.
• Dec. 4 vs. Louisville: A collapse in the second half allowed UofL to sneak away with a 41-38 win last year at the Pizza Box.  The year before that, RU made a huge statement with their 28-25 stunner over a top five Louisville team.  Back at the Birthplace, I expect an RU win—and this will be for bowl placement.

Trap games

• Sep. 11 vs. North Carolina: The Tarheels are talented and will be looking to pull off an upset in the early going.  RU will have 10 days to prepare for this one, but the risk is that the Knights will take UNC a little too lightly for what they've put out on the gridiron lately.  RU had better come out and play a good, tough game.
• Sep. 20 @ Navy: No one likes to have to prepare for the triple option.  Last year Navy was very much in the game against RU, but untimely turnovers cost them a chance at the upset.  This game in Annapolis is something the Knights cannot afford to take lightly.
• Oct. 18 vs. Connecticut: In between a revenge game against Cincy and a road game at Pitt, the Knights might overlook the Huskies and get a scare thrown into them.  The D is good enough to stop UConn's attack, but Teel will have to show he won't make the big mistake.

Prediction

Will Teel grow up and be a leader?  Will Mason Robinson at least half capably fill the shoes of Rice?  Will the defense perform up to scratch as they have done—but do so consistently?  Will that redshirt freshman kicker work out?

There are plenty of questions here, but Teel has experience being a leader, and the defense, again, ought to be strong.  Schiano has created a solid program in Piscataway.  If they can get past some of those early season landmines, expect another solid season.

RECORD: 9-3 (4-3)

 

SOUTH FLORIDA

We all knew they'd eventually get good—what with being in Florida and all—but we didn't expect them to get that good that quickly.

The first No. 2 in the BCS standings last year, USF unfortunately hit a wall in the middle of the season, starting with a loss to Rutgers.  They recovered well, got into a good bowl game, then got hammered by an Oregon team that was without its first- and second-string QBs.

This team remembers—heck, they can't help but remember, because all of the key pieces of this puzzle return, led by QB Matt Grothe on offense and DE George Selvie on defense.

The corners are both gone from a defense that (save for that Oregon game) played pretty well, and the running backs need to be more consistent, but this team looks legit.  Were it not for the fact that they played AT West Virginia, they would probably be the Big East favorite again.

Notable games

• Sep. 12 vs. Kansas: Two of last year's most unexpected darlings meet in Tampa in an intriguing matchup.  KU has some key pieces returning from last year's team (most notably QB Todd Reesing), so these "powers" will both be near full strength.  This game should show who's legit and who's a pretender.
• Oct. 25 @ Louisville: These Bulls are experienced enough to pull an upset or two on the road, and their explosive but inconsistent offense might have a chance to tee off on a somewhat shaky UofL D.  This is a huge in-conference game.
• Dec. 6 @ West Virginia: In successive weeks, the Mountaineers should be playing for revenge, then the Big East title.  USF has stunned them in Morgantown before, but I think they'll know what's coming this year.

Trap games

• Sep. 5 @ UCF: I know they got poleaxed last year, and that Kevin Smith is no longer toting the rock for them, but the Golden Knights are no slouch.  This could become an even more intriguing rivalry than Miami/FSU—at least as the latter two are right now.
• Sep. 27 @ NC State: Last year, USF established itself with a statement win over a ranked Auburn team.  NC State could use the same sort of win to get their season on track and really kickstart the Tom O'Brien era in Raleigh.  It'll be a tester, but I think USF slips by and wins.  It's USF's first trip outside the state, despite the fact that it's their third road game.
• Oct. 30 @ Cincinnati: Are you paying attention, USF?  As soon as Louisville is in your rearview mirror, you get Cincy five days later.  I foresee an upset.

Prediction

Matt Grothe and the offense (or more aptly, Matt Grothe and everyone else on offense when they decide to show up and contribute) are dangerous but inconsistent.  I think they'll jell better this year, what with the experience and the disappointment at the end of last year.

The spring game was a physical, defensive affair, which shows that the defensive front will be fearsome again.  The defensive backfield may be a question mark, and Delbert Alvarado was not a good kicker last year, but I expect big things from the Bulls.

Let's see how they handle expectations.  A great year could mean a BCS at-large spot.

RECORD: 10-2 (5-2)

 

SYRACUSE

I didn't understand the Paul Pasqualoni firing, besides the fact that 6-6 seasons were getting to be old hat in upstate NY, and he didn't quite win a national title with Donovan McNabb (guess what—neither have the Eagles!).

I didn't think that Greg Robinson would be a great hire either.  Now he's on his way out—unless there's an "enough to get you canonized" miracle or set of circumstances like UVA's last year.

The offense had hope with QB Andrew Robinson, but now top wideout Mike Williams is suspended, leaving him no one to throw the ball to.  The RBs are dinged up, though Curtis Brinkley is not a bad back at all, and Syracuse's defense isn't exactly talent-laden.  The schedule is a bit brutal too.

Carrier wishes it could make ACs as quiet as the Dome bearing its name will be in November.  Greg Robinson will go after this year.

Notable games

• Aug. 30 @ Northwestern: If the 'Cuse have any hope of getting anywhere for the postseason, they have to steal this one on the road.  First, it's a team that's also rebounding from an off year, with a more fragile tradition of success (i.e., only in the last decade or so).  Second, a win on the road against a BCS conference opponent is a confidence builder par excellence.
• Sep. 13 vs. Penn State: PSU might be flaky enough on offense early in the year, as they look to settle on a QB, to afford Syracuse the chance to win a close game—if their defense shows up.
• Sep. 27 vs. Pitt: The Orange cannot afford to slip up at home.  Pitt is a team that has fragile confidence itself, so it'll be interesting to see how they react to being a road favorite.
• Nov. 15 vs. Connecticut: UConn might be scrapping and trying to get into a bowl.  Syracuse might be auditioning for next year and their next coach.  On a senior day, there's nothing like ruining a team's bowl chances, so perhaps they'll register a pulse.

Trap games

• Sep. 6 vs. Akron: Akron had issues on offense last year, but they do return their starter.  They played Ohio State tough in spite of their troubles on O.  They'll likely be unfazed by having to play a BCS school of Syracuse's caliber.
• Sep. 20 vs. Northeastern: ...Naw, I'm not that crazy.  I love me the CAA, but NU's near the bottom of the league.  However, Syracuse is pretty bad...

Prediction

I just cannot see Syracuse doing well this year.  Mike Williams, a second team all-Big East player last year, was their big hope to be a gamebreaker, but it's likely he won't play.  The running game will have to carry the offense, and the defense will have to play above itself to keep them in games.

They'll have to take any momentum from early-season games and run with it as far as their legs will take them.  Upsets early against Northwestern and Penn State could go a long way to building this team's confidence, and they could sneak up on someone on the road who's looking past them.

I just don't see it happening.  The culture is stagnant, and this year we'll see it flushed out.

RECORD: 2-10 (0-7)

 

WEST VIRGINIA

Coach Rod is gone in a very acrimonious divorce.  Steve Slaton's gone to languish deep on the depth charts of the NFL.  This team's heart got ripped out last year with an almost inexplicable 13-9 choke-job at home against archrival Pitt.

Is there good news?  Well, they thrashed Oklahoma thanks to two TDs from RB Noel Devine and talented QB Pat White, both of whom are back.

The coach who led them to that win, Bill Stewart, 9-25 record and all, is now the head man and has the endorsement of the entire Mountaineer family.  He seems like a solid guy who's finally getting a chance at the big league level (that 9-25 record was at VMI, which is a unique, difficult situation).

The talent is there to win the Big East again—but they have to show that they will not choke games away that they can and should win, and they must be strong on defense, which hasn't always been easy.

Notable games

• Oct. 23 vs. Auburn: The Tigers too are installing the spread, and by this game they'll have a signal caller to operate it.  SEC football gets intense around October, so one might think they would overlook this game, but if WVU's highly ranked, Auburn will be ready to make a statement.  Auburn's D is good enough and quick enough to make life hard on the Mountaineers.
• Nov. 22 @ Louisville: Once again, this game should be full of fireworks on the offensive side of the ball.  I think the Cards will be jacked up and ready to play in this one.
• Nov. 28 @ Pittsburgh: 13-9.  'Nuff said.
• Dec. 6 vs. South Florida: After the catharsis that should mark the Pitt game, WVU's going to have to get back on track quickly to play a rested USF team which isn't afraid of cold weather—they have lost in it more often than not, but have also beaten WVU in Morgantown.

Trap games

• Sep. 6 @ East Carolina: Ask Virginia Tech how well ECU can play.  Put this one on the road and you have yourself a little recipe for an upset.
• Sep. 18 @ Colorado: This is a really intriguing matchup.  Will Pat White and the offense run out of gas and oxygen in the high altitudes of Boulder?  Will Cody Hawkins have his dad's spread offense humming nicely by this time?  They play similar styles, but with in a new coach and no Slaton or Darius Reynaud, I can see WVU slipping here and the Buffs pulling an upset.
• Nov. 1 @ Connecticut: UConn could get the home crowd rocking for this one and pull off a major upset—especially if WVU's D is being too generous for its own good.

Prediction

It all depends on how well the defense comes together (a 3-3-5 defense will give up some yards, but they have to be strong when it counts) and how well Pat White takes on the role of sole leader.

He's shown an ability to perform well solo, but now he has no Steve Slaton to share the spotlight.  There is Noel Devine, but everyone knows this is White's team.

The interesting thing about Devine is that he's been used as a change of pace back, rather than a starter.  Will he thrive in this role?  Plus, the tough-as-nails Owen Schmitt must be replaced at FB—and this is a bigger loss than many think.

In all, I see a Big East title for the Mountaineers, despite a loss at Louisville, but a slipup in the non-conference schedule.  They'll be back in the BCS, and Bill Stewart will be the (deserving) beneficiary of a full cupboard.

RECORD: 10-2 (6-1)

 

BIG EAST STANDINGS

1. West Virginia 10-2 (6-1)
2. South Florida 10-2 (5-2)
3. Rutgers 9-3 (4-3)
4. Louisville 9-3 (4-3)
5. Pittsburgh 8-4 (4-3)
6. Cincinnati 8-5 (3-4)
7. Connecticut 6-6 (2-5)
8. Syracuse 2-10 (0-7)

 

Next up: The Big 12—What will Sam Bradford do for an encore?  Will Mizzou get over getting shafted by the BCS?  Will a team other than either Oklahoma or Texas win the South Division?