Kent State (-3.5) 26 AKRON 17
Akron is 0-7 straight up against Division 1A teams this season with losses to 3 teams that are worse than Kent, a team that enters this game off 3 consecutive wins. Kent is just 0.1 yards per play worse than average offensively with Spencer Keith at quarterback, which is good for a MAC team and Akron's defense is 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively.
The mismatch in this game is with Kent's solid defensive unit (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team) going up against a horrible Akron offense that is 1.0 yppl worse than average for the season (4.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) and 1.3 yppl worse than average with freshman Patrick Nicely at quarterback the last 3 1/2 games. Nicely has averaged just 4.4 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback and the Zips don't have a ground game either (3.8 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.6 yprp).
Kent applies to a 70-20-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator while Akron applies to a negative 1-23-1 ATS subset of a 32-76-3 ATS situation that plays against bad teams at home after 3 or more consecutive road games.
The technical analysis has been under 50% this season after years at 55% in college football and my math model is not significantly favoring Kent in this game (it favors the Flashes by 5 1/2 points), so I'll pass on making the Flashes a Best Bet in this game. I'd consider Kent a Strong Opinion at -3 or less.
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