Dr. Bob's Betting Advice For VA TECH (-12.5) @ ECU

Robert StollCorrespondent INovember 5, 2009

BLACKSBURG, VA - OCTOBER 29:  Quarterback Tyrod Taylor #5 of the Virginia Tech University Hokies watches the action from the sidelines during the fourth quarter of the game against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Lane Stadium on October 29, 2009 in Blacksburg, Virginia.  (Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images)
Scott Halleran/Getty Images

#22 Virginia Tech (-12.5) 33 EAST CAROLINA 18

Over/Under Total: 51.5
04:45 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Nov-05

East Carolina is not a good team this season, as the Pirates have been out-gained 5.2 yards per play to 5.5 yppl despite facing an easy schedule of teams that would get out-gained 5.0 yppl to 5.7 yppl by an average team.

Virginia Tech has lost consecutive games to Georgia Tech and North Carolina, but the Hokies are still a good team that has out-gained their opponents 6.3 yppl to 4.8 yppl despite facing teams that would average 5.6 yppl and allow 4.9 yppl to an average team.

My math model strongly favors Virginia Tech in this game, giving the Hokies a 59.8% chance of covering at -12 1/2 points, but East Carolina applies to a very good 56-14-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation that has a 56% chance of winning at a fair line. The math is stronger than the situation in this case and I'll lean with the Hokies at -14 or less.

 

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