Rebuilding on the Run: An Ideal 2010 Cubs Roster

The rumors are out there. The free agent lists are nearly complete; only uncertainty over player and club option years remains. The trade market is beginning to rediscover itself for the first time in six weeks or so.

And now, armed with all that knowledge, we have an opportunity to begin the task of concretely formulating the best plan of action for the Chicago Cubs over the course of the upcoming offseason.

It will be an imprecise science. It will also likely not come to fruition, whatever we may propose, because Jim Hendry's mind does not work in the same way as the average fan's (or certainly the above-average fan's).

But it never hurts to try, and the good Lord gave us hard, cold, rainy autumns in the great Windy City so that we could muse about next baseball season. Therefore, here I set forth my proposed opening day roster for the Chicago Cubs in 2010.

For each player, I will explicate their role somewhat, note their positions, uniform numbers, expected 2010 salaries, handedness, and a selection of relevant stats.

Please leave feedback, suggested replacements for players you believe appear in error, and any thoughts you have about their usage patterns for next year. Let the hot stove heat!

Leading Off: Chone Figgins, No. 9

There is no better place to begin, for any number of reasons.

Figgins is where it all starts for the Cubs this winter. The success or failure of Hendry's overtures to the diminutive spark plug will define the rest of the Cubs' efforts to improve the team going into next season.

Figgins would fill the gaping void at the top of Chicago's order, which saw Cubs leadoff men reach base at a paltry .335 clip in 2009. That rate ranked them 11th in the National League.

Not at all coincidentally, they placed 10th in runs scored, ahead of four of the five teams whose top men had lower on-base percentages.

Meanwhile, Figgins notched his second season in three with an OBP over .390, and led the American League in walks with 101. Not since Wade Boggs in 1988 has an American Leaguer attained the walks title with so few as Figgins' five home runs; in fact, no one else in that stretch managed it with fewer than 12.

Figgins is not perfect. To maximize his abilities, he would need to improve upon his career stolen-base success rate of 74 percent. He would also have to get more aware on the base paths: he was picked off 11 times in 2009, which tied Scott Podsednik for the most in the AL.

He also has to make a position switch if he is to become a Cub, which may not appeal to him or the team. Figgins came up as a second baseman, and played over 200 games in center field from 2003-06.

Ideally, the team would move him to center, where the market is thinner this year than it is for second basemen, and where statistically, Figgins should have more success.

According to Baseball Prospectus, players moving from third base to center improve on average by 4.4 Fielding Runs Above Average. Consider, too, that Figgins has the speed to cover center, which many hot corner men might not.

Money could be the issue. Figgins is in position to demand a deal not dissimilar to Juan Pierre's recent five-year, $44 million albatross with the Dodgers, or even a bit more.

Hendry would have to backload the deal to make that work, a tactic he has overused in recent years. Still, it isn't an impossible fit, fiscally or otherwise.

The Fearless Leader: Derrek Lee, No. 25

For all the bitter disappointment of 2009, there stands this one beacon of redemption. Lee clubbed 35 homers, the most since his MVP snub in 2005. He also recovered his ability to draw a walk, a skill that had crucially eroded during his breakdown season in 2008.

His on-base percentage jumped from a solid but unspectacular .361 in '08 to a far more palatable .393 this year. Coupled with his bump in power (which was long overdue: he hit fewer doubles this year than in either of the previous two, but only because some of those went over the wall), that made the Cubs' star first baseman dominant again for the first time since he signed the five-year, $65 million deal that will expire after 2010.

He also continues to be one of the best defenders at his position (though, admittedly, the easiest and least important position) anywhere in the league. To get all of that for $13 million makes Lee a tremendous value in his walk year, even as he turns 35 next September.

A Step in the Right Direction: Kosuke Fukudome, No. 1

In his second year of Major League ball, Kosuke Fukudome began to fulfill the tremendous potential Jim Hendry saw in him when he signed Fukudome to a four-year, $48 million contract before 2008.

Though he batted just .259 (good for third among regulars on the club, a sad commentary on the 2009 Cubs' offense), Fukudome became a prototypical second hitter as the season progressed.

Sandwiched between Figgins and Lee, Kosuke would have a great chance to continue his marked improvement, which saw him smack 13 more doubles and take 12 more walks this year in roughly equal playing time versus 2008.

The good comes with a little taste of the bad: Piniella gave Fukudome just 67 plate appearances against southpaw pitchers this season, and the outfielder struggled mightily in the small sample size.

That necessitates the acquisition of some right-handed balance to the outfield mix, which boasts mainly left-handed options like Sam Fuld, Tyler Colvin, and Micah Hoffpauir.

But that will be easier if Figgins does arrive in town, because it will allow Fukudome to move back to right field. By the numbers, the difference effected by that move alone could be as much as 30 runs, or three full wins, in added defense.

It will also make it much easier for Hendry to find Fukudome's new platoon partner, or even to plug Jake Fox into that role.

At $13 million for next season, Kosuke is not a bargain-basement deal. But batting second and providing left-handed potency to the order, he has significant value.

Southpaw Sensation: Ted Lilly, No. 30

"The Bulldog" became the top dog in the Cubs' rotation in 2009, posting a career-best ERA of 3.10, and finishing in the top 10 in the National League in both walks per nine innings (1.83, ninth) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.19, eighth). Both of those figures are also the best of Lilly's career.

Although making fewer than 31 starts (he made 27) for just the second time since 2003, he won 12 games, which tied for the team lead.

After drawing criticism when Lilly first signed, Hendry now looks like a genius for securing the left-hander at the reasonable rate of $12 million for 2010.

If Lilly isn't on the mound April 5 versus Atlanta, it will be purely political. He is the ace of this Cubs staff, and everyone knows it.

Control Issues: Carlos Zambrano, No. 38

It seemed that Big Z was forever throwing the wrong things in 2009. He threw his glove, he threw tantrums, and worst of all, he threw out his back on a vicious swing that sent him to the disabled list for the second time in one season.

Now, he must figure out the best way to throw a baseball over home plate, so he can regain the form that made him the ace of the Cubs' staff from 2004 to 2006.

Although Zambrano, who won just nine games in 2009, also rediscovered his ability to miss bats (his 8.09 strikeouts per nine innings was his highest in three years), he failed to maintain the improvement he showed in his ability to throw strikes (after a career-low 3.43 walks per nine in 2008, he jumped back up to an unappealing 4.15 this season).

He's still an exceptional hitter, for a pitcher at least, and a solid second starter. He'll make nearly $18 million in 2010, so he'd better continue to be at least that.

Mr. Consistency: Ryan Dempster, No. 46

Two years into his return to the starting rotation, Ryan Dempster is giving the Cubs more than they could have hoped for.

In those two seasons, he has started 33 and 31 games, pitched 206 and 200 innings and won 17 and 11 games, respectively. He has struck out more than two-and-a-half times as many batters as he has walked.

He has also missed bats as well as anyone in the league. Since the beginning of 2008, only C.C. Sabathia and Tim Lincecum have allowed opposing hitters to make contact with a lower percentage of their offerings.

Dempster is the surest and steadiest part of the three-headed monster atop the Cubs' 2010 rotation. He will earn $12.5 million in 2010, the second year of the four-year, $52 million deal he signed last winter. For the combination of his production and his leadership, it's a bargain.

A Quick Aside: The Four-and-a-Half-Man Rotation

Almost no one even questions the established institution of the five-man rotation these days. It has become as much a part of the game as the closer's role, or the best hitter being placed in the third spot in the order.

Unfortunately, the five-man rotation has something else in common with those staples of the modern game: they are all unfounded.

In Baseball Prospectus' 2006 book Baseball Between the Numbers, Keith Woolner unveiled a study which demonstrated that sending pitchers out on three days' regular rest results neither in poorer performance, nor in an increased incidence of injury.

I understand, however, that the modern game demands we treat pitchers more carefully than to simply toss them out every three days. So I mapped out next season's starters, game by game, using the following rules:

A. Pitchers must start at least half of their games on four days of rest or more. Pitchers are defined as available to start when they have rested three or more days; they are available to relieve after two days' rest following a start, or one day of rest following a relief appearance.

B. Pitchers will be used any time they meet the requirements of being available, with the following priority:

1. Ted Lilly
2. Carlos Zambrano
3. Ryan Dempster
4. Randy Wells
5. Tom Gorzelanny

C. Wells and Gorzelanny may be used in rotation, or as a platoon, rather than adhering to priority.

D. All pitchers will be removed after no more than six innings (in order to maximize their performance while in: batter gain about 40 points of OPS every time through the order); average innings per start will be restricted in the following ways:

1. Lilly: 5.25 innings/GS
2. Zambrano: 5.25 IP/GS
3. Dempster: 5.25 IP/GS
4. Wells: 5 IP/GS; 2 IP/Relief app.
5. Gorzelanny: 5 IP/GS; 1 IP/Relief app.

With those restrictions in place, here is what the Cubs' rotation would look like in terms of playing time in 2010:

Lilly: 40 starts, 210 innings, 22 starts on four days or more, 18 on three days.
Zambrano: 40 GS, 210 IP, 21 GS on 4 days or more, 19 on three days.
Dempster: 39 GS, 205 IP, 22 GS on 4 days or more, 17 on three days.
Wells: 22 GS, 110 IP as starter; 21 G in relief, 42 IP as reliever.
Gorzelanny: 21 GS, 105 IP; 30 G in relief, 30 IP.

The $18-Million Question: Alfosno Soriano, No. 12

If Alfonso Soriano is healthy and effective in 2010, the Cubs will be the scariest team in the National League.

But after two seasons of injury problems and the nightmarish 2009, that is one enormous $18 million "if."

Soriano has not played more than 135 games in any of his three Cub seasons, which mitigates the tremendous value he provided them in the first two years.

And in 2009, the Cubs would have been wiser to play him even less. His wOBA, a comprehensive offensive stat scaled to OBP, fell from a stellar .375 in 2007 and '08, to a miserable .314 in 2009.

He also failed spectacularly to defend left field: after saving 20 runs above what an average left fielder would have during the two previous years, Soriano lost the Cubs nearly 12 runs with his glove alone in 2009.

In part, these struggles can be attributed to the knee injury that nagged him all year. Hopefully, his renowned work ethic will allow him to bounce back from that at full strength in 2010.

If he does, the Cubs need not search so desperately for a fifth hitter. If he doesn't, they could be in big trouble, regardless of who they acquire.

By the way, if Derrek Lee should go down with injury at any point in 2010, it would behoove Hendry to consider moving the lanky but immobile Soriano to first base.

Hendry Has No Alibi: Dan Uggla, No. 6

Since the beginning of time, no middle infielder has ever pounded out as many home runs as Dan Uggla's 121 in his first four Major League seasons.

Uggla, who will be 30 next March, also walked a career-high 92 times in 2009. That kind of production from a second baseman, even one who plays below-average defense, is invaluable.

But not to the penny-pinching Florida Marlins. According to a number of published reports, they will look to move the All-Star this winter, in order to avoid paying what most think will be between $7 million and $8 million for his services in 2010.

If Uggla does move, and does not come to the Friendly Confines, it will constitute an inexcusable failure on the part of Hendry.

Hendry has made it clear that his first priority for the offseason is to add a fifth hitter to protect Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Uggla fits the profile perfectly.

To get him, the Cubs will probably have to give up Jeff Baker, David Patton and pitching prospects Jay Jackson and J.R. Mathes. It's a small price to pay.

Anchorman: Aramis Ramirez, No. 16

In the last three seasons, Ramirez has clubbed walk-off home runs against the Cubs' three biggest rivals. His OPS has been at .898 or higher in every season since 2004.

He has 188 homers since coming over to the Cubs in July of 2003, the most of any Cub over that span, and already good enough for 10th place on the all-time franchise home run list.

His injury was the single most crippling obstacle the Cubs ran into in 2009.

He has the right to opt out of his five-year deal a year early after 2010, but for 2010, Cubs fans can count on the same kind of great productivity Ramirez has provided for years now. At nearly $16 million a year, it's a good thing.

Round Mound of Rebound? Geovany Soto, No. 18

The 2008 NL Rookie of the Year ran belly-first into a sophomore jinx in 2009. Soto tested positive for marijuana during the World Baseball Classic, strained his oblique in July as a result of poor conditioning, and saw his OPS fall from .868 to .702.

Interestingly, Soto's walk and strikeout rates improved. He also hit roughly the same number of balls into the air, and kept fewer on the infield, but had his home runs per fly ball percentage fall noticeably. His batting average on balls in play fell to a very unlucky .246.

Whatever role luck played, Soto also needs to remedy the problems with his physical shape by Opening Day. Assuming he does, however, he'll be among the NL's best-hitting catchers and eighth hitters, and will do so for less than $600,000 in 2010.

Old School: Randy Wells, No. 36

Wells won't win the Rookie of the Year award, nor should he. But he still had a fantastic inaugural season, winning 12 games and posting a 3.05 ERA.

Wells forces the opponent to pound the ball into the ground, evidenced by his 1.44 ground-ball/fly-ball ratio. He also has tremendous control, allowing only 2.5 walks per nine innings. And Wells pitches like a veteran, mixing his pitches well and getting creative when he doesn't have his best stuff.

He'll also be lucky to make half a million dollars next year, making him a tremendous value in the fourth starter's role.

A New Kind of Soriano: Rafael Soriano, No. 39

There may not be a less heralded superstar in all of baseball than Atlanta's soon-to-be free-agent closer, Soriano. The 30-year-old Soriano has three and a half more strikeouts than walks during his career, and this season, the only National League reliever with more punch-outs than Soriano was the Dodgers' Jonathan Broxton.

He made $6.1 million in 2009, and that will become a deal in the neighborhood of three years and $30 million this winter. But the 2010 salary involved there could easily be as low as $7 million, which would be within range if the Cubs are successful in some of the cost-cutting measures I propose.

Carlito's Way: Carlos Marmol, No. 49

Marmol certainly has a way all his own of retiring batters: he strikes them out, or he doesn't get them out at all.

Marmol was fifth among Major League relievers with 93 strikeouts in 2009. Unfortunately, no one else in the top 11 had even half of Marmol's embarrassing 65 walks. In fact, if hit batsmen were a part of the formulation for WHIP, Marmol's would have been above 1.00 this year without a single hit allowed.

That said, as part of a dynamic bullpen duo, Marmol can be a highly effective reliever. With a little work on his command, he could even become one of the league's truly dominant relief aces.

He hits arbitration this year, and his exceptional years in 2007 and 2008 (which translated into a 2008 All-Star selection) will likely allow him to make some good money.

Comparisons to his closest comparable players in the modern market allow me to estimate that he will make about $1.75 million next year.

Cajun Scrap Iron: Ryan Theriot, No. 2

Theriot is on the verge of 30, a speed-oriented shortstop who last season fell in love with his power stroke, contributing to 22 fewer walks and 35 more strikeouts in 2009 than in 2008.

If he can reverse those trends, however, Theriot will continue to succeed on the strength of a great inside-out swing, and a well above-average glove at the toughest defensive position on the diamond.

It should help that Hendry plans to shop around for a top-of-the-order guy, thereby taking pressure off of the Riot and allowing him to slide down into the seventh slot in the lineup.

Theriot, too, will cash in on the arbitration process this winter, and stands to make anywhere from $2 million to $4 million. Figuring conservatively, on the strength of his lack of any superlatives or honors, we'll project him for $2.5 million.

Supporting Cast: Bench

Rather than bore you with the nitty-gritty, I will simply run down the bench players I would like to see, and provide the essential info.

Koyie Hill, C/3B/LF, Switch-hitter, Est. 2010 salary: $1 million
Jake Fox, 1B/3B/C/LF/RF, Right-handed, $0.435 million
Andres Blanco, 2B/SS, Switch-hitter, $0.435 M
Sam Fuld, OF, Left-handed, $0.435 M
Bobby Scales, 2B/3B/LF/RF, Switch-hitter, $0.435 M

Supporting Cast: Pitching Staff

Same drill here:

Tom Gorzelanny, Lefty, Starter/reliever, $1.6 M
Angel Guzman, Righty, Reliever, $1.1 M
Jeff Samardzija, Righty, Reliever/Emergency starter, $1 M
Esmailin Caridad, Righty, Reliever/Emergency starter, $0.435 M
John Gaub, Lefty, Reliever, $0.435 M
Justin Berg, Righty, reliever, $0.435 M

Putting it all Together: Budget Concerns

Obviously, though I don't expect this all to come to fruition, I strove to remain within the realm of realism. The average reported budget I have read for Hendry's 2010 Cubs is $145 million. So let's see how I made this team fit:

Offense (including position players on the bench): $82.08 million
Pitching: $56.4 million

That totals $138.48 million.

I estimate the remaining $6.52 million as what we'd have to eat to get rid of Milton Bradley (about $5 million would be this year' share, and more next season), Aaron Miles (he's on the books for $2.7 million, but Hendry should be able to find someone who'd pay $1.6 of that), and our obligation (of just under $0.5 million) to Luis Vizcaino.

Putting It all Together: Lineup, rotation, bench, and bullpen

Here, then, is the finished product: my proposed lineup card and playing time allotments for the 2010 Cubs. Let the feeding frenzy begin.

LINEUP:
1. Figgins- cf (S) 725 PA
2. Fukudome- rf (L) 540 PA
3. Lee- 1b (R) 675 PA
4. Ramirez- 3b (R) 650 PA
5. Uggla- 2b (R) 575 PA
6. Soriano- lf (R) 525 PA
7. Theriot- ss (R) 550 PA
8. Soto- c (R) 490 PA

ROTATION:
1. Lilly (L) 210 IP
2. Zambrano (R) 210 IP
3. Dempster (R) 205 IP
4. Wells (R) 152 IP

BULLPEN:
1. Soriano (R) 100 IP
2. Marmol (R) 100 IP
3. Guzman (R) 80 IP
4. Caridad (R) 70 IP
5. Gaub (L) 50 IP
6. Gorzelanny (L) 135 IP
7. Samardzija (R) 60 IP
8. Berg (R) 40 IP

BENCH:
Hill (S) 125 PA
Fox (R) 200 PA
Blanco (S) 75 PA
Scales (S) 75 PA
Fuld (L) 100 PA