Let the Season Begin! Team-by-Team NBA Over/Unders
By (Correspondent) on October 27, 2009
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With the 2009-10 season set to tip-off tonight, let's take a look at each team.
For some we'll discuss expectations for the team in general or a player in particular. This is one of the most intriguing NBA seasons in recent memory, largely to due a lot of offseason activity and transition.
For example, a surefire Hall-of-Famer, Kevin Garnett, is coming off major knee surgery and trying to get Boston back to the Finals. Can he be a major force for the Celtics this season? Check out an over/under related to his return later in this slideshow.
So with all this in mind, let's go team-by-team and examine some interesting over/under prop bets.
7.5 Wins by the Kings before the All-Star break
It’s a near consensus that the Kings will be the worst team in the NBA this season. Last year the team won only 17 games. Unclear is whether the team got worse.
Regardless, how slow of a start will this team get off to? So much of one that the team doesn’t enough sniff 10 wins before the All-Star Break?
My prediction: UNDER
(2.5) Bucks' place of finish in 2010 NBA Draft lottery
The Bucks will not be a terrific team by any means this season. The departures of Ramon Sessions and Charlie Villanueva take away quite significantly from the Bucks’ scoring output.
This young team got even younger this offseason and don’t appear as if it will make it out of the Eastern Conference basement.
Basically, will the Bucks be one of the two worst teams this season?
My prediction: OVER
25 Rebounds per game combined by Kevin Love and Al Jefferson of the Timberwolves
This is one of the league’s most fascinating young frontcourts.
They’re both likeable guys who work hard and who are quite effective when both healthy. We’ll probably see something like 14-11 or 13-12, Jefferson and Love, respectively, in terms of rebounds.
The Timberwolves don’t necessarily need to be concerned with wins at this point. They should be more concerned with allowing this young foundation to grow together to be a playoff contender in the future.
My prediction: UNDER
6.5 full seasons in Lawrence Frank’s current coaching tenure with the Nets (five already)
The Nets have a decent young nucleus, but some experts believe the Nets front office won’t let it develop before firing coach Lawrence Frank.
After five seasons with the club, he enters his most difficult task to date: managing a budding superstar in Devin Harris on a team without a lot of experience together.
Will the Nets be able to keep their coach while going through some growing pains?
My prediction: OVER
0.5 seasons LeBron James plays for the Knicks
The Knicks have been gearing toward saving cap room in an effort to sign LeBron James after this season.
Some think they have a realistic shot at signing the league’s reigning MVP. Others believe he’ll stay in Cleveland and never give the Knicks consideration.
Is New York enticing enough for James to sign with the Knicks? Or are the Knicks adjusting their roster in the way they are for nothing?
My prediction: UNDER
3.5 Grizzlies who score 30+ Points in a game
Memphis has a lot of explosive scorers in its starting lineup this season. With the acquisitions of Zach Randolph and Allen Iverson, in addition to O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay, any four of these could easily score more than 30 points in a game this season.
But how many of them will actually exceed the 30-point mark? Or might one of them emerge as the primary scorer in order to better the team?
My prediction: UNDER
28.5 Wins by the Warriors
It can be agreed upon that the Warriors are in disarray. A talented squad no less, but will the talent produce wins or will the dysfunction override the talent?
Don Nelson is in a tight situation. He has a promising young rookie to develop, but on a team full of difficult veterans, can Stephen Curry overcome what might be a painful season with Golden State?
My prediction: OVER
(11.5) Bobcats' place of finish in the Eastern Conference
This number is 3.5 spots from last place and 3.5 spots from a No. 8 seed in the playoffs. Obviously the Bobcats belong somewhere in between. Charlotte set a franchise record for wins last season with 35.
The Bobcats managed to retain Raymond Felton, but will the loss of Emeka Okafor negate that?
My prediction: OVER
30 Points per game by Kevin Durant of the Thunder
No one is sure about the ceiling for Kevin Durant in the next couple seasons. Some believe he’ll lead the Thunder to the playoffs this season, while others are still wary of this team which got off to a 3-29 start last season.
Regardless, Durant is likely to produce a spike in his points per game average, perhaps enough to win the scoring title. So will the third-year stud be able to average over 30 points per game or not?
My prediction: UNDER
(2.5) Rank in Rookie of the Year voting for Tyler Hansbrough of the Pacers
Perhaps no rookie has a better opportunity to impact his team right away than Hansbrough. Aside from maybe Blake Griffin and Tyreke Evans, no rookie is more needed to impact his team right away.
Will he garner the recognition in Indiana that will allow him to collect the amount of votes he needs to unseat Griffin for Rookie of the Year?
My prediction: OVER
32.5 Wins by the Clippers
After the news broke this morning detailing Blake Griffin’s injury, I immediately lowered this win total from 37.5.
The Clippers are still going to be a much improved team, but Griffin was a considerable part of that improvement. With him out for the first six weeks of the season, and maybe more, it’s more likely that the Clippers start slow and never recover.
Nonetheless, they’ll still be a better team this season compared to last.
My prediction: UNDER
82.5 Games Played combined by Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming of the Rockets
Yao is likely out for the season, although a return has not been ruled out. McGrady, meanwhile, is expected to return at some time before the end of this year.
So basically, if you’re taking the over, you’re counting on Yao to return to action at some point this season.
My prediction: UNDER
1.5 Pistons named All-Stars
Detroit has appeared in eight consecutive postseasons, a streak that may be in jeopardy this season. The departures of Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess have the left frontcourt without much experience. The Pistons added Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva during free agency in the offseason.
Richard Hamilton is the only All-Star on the roster, with Tayshaun Prince, Gordon and Villanueva still looking for their first selections. Prince has started in all 82 games for five consecutive seasons.
Will one of the trio without step up and make his first All-Star Game appearance this season?
My prediction: UNDER
65.5 Games Started by Elton Brand of the 76ers
Former top rookie Elton Brand played 29 games last season and eight the season before.
With the departure of point guard Andre Miller, the 76ers will look to Brand to both lead the team and become the focal point on offense for this team in transition.
Philadelphia has made consecutive postseason appearances but a third may not be such a lock this season.
Can Brand be a mainstay in the starting lineup and lead Philadelphia into playoff contention?
My prediction: OVER
20.5 more Wins than last season by the Wizards (19)
Well-publicized has been the apparent remake of Gilbert Arenas.
The Wizards turned their No. 5 draft pick into Mike Miller and Randy Foye. Standing in the Wizards’ way is the absence of Antawn Jamison for the first month of the season, as the Wizards are left without an experienced frontcourt.
A season after one plagued by injuries, can new coach Flip Saunders turn this veteran team into a playoff contender?
My prediction: UNDER
82 Games Played by Chris Bosh for the Raptors
Chris Bosh is going to have a career year in his final under contract with Toronto. But probably to no avail, as some shakeup on the Raptors’ roster will likely keep Toronto out of the playoffs again this season.
The key is will he have that career year all year long with Toronto? Or will he get shipped elsewhere midseason to receive some value for him before he becomes a free agent in the offseason?
My prediction: UNDER
46.5 Wins by the Suns
For whatever reason, some don’t think the Suns will be a legitimate contender for the playoffs this season.
After a 46-win season, there’s no reason to believe a dropoff will take place, especially with Alvin Gentry re-introducing the Suns’ traditional run-and-gun offense. Nash has been nothing but steady for Phoenix in his career there, as he looks to lead this team back into the Finals contention.
Will the Suns exceed or come up shy of their win total from last season?
My prediction: UNDER
3.5 Playoff Wins by the Heat
Easily the league’s definition of a one-man team, the Heat need to hope to remain injury-free all season so that they can have a chance to make some noise in the playoffs. Dwyane Wade feels the team hasn’t done enough to convince him to stay, as the six-year veteran is a free agent in the offseason.
Are the Heat legitimate enough to steal a playoff series this season? Or will they struggle and suffer another first-round exit like last season?
My prediction: UNDER
3.5 Games over .500 by the Bulls
Will the Bulls be better because they’re a young team that got older? Or will the departure of Ben Gordon free Luol Deng to evolve as the player we started to see a couple seasons ago.
Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah are poised for breakout seasons.
So, in an Eastern Conference that appears to have a deeper collection of teams this season, is 45 wins possible for this team?
My prediction: UNDER
35 combined Points and Assists by Chris Paul of the Hornets
As the No. 1 fantasy basketball player on most Web sites, Chris Paul looks to rebound the Hornets after an embarrassing playoff exit last season.
Clearly the best point guard in the league, Paul is looking to be even more of an impact for his team, with Emeka Okafor as the team‘s signature acquisition, will his statistics from his efforts support the type of impact he’s looking to make on this new look team?
My prediction: UNDER
0.5 more Wins by the Jazz than the Nuggets
Most experts are not as high on the Nuggets this season, while the Jazz could be much improved if everyone stays healthy. Last season the Nuggets clinched the No. 2 seed in the West, while the Jazz were eliminated by the Lakers in the first round as the No. 8 seed.
The Jazz could easily improve as much as the Nuggets will decline, but will they overtake the Nuggets in the Western Conference?
My prediction: UNDER
1.5 more Playoffs Wins than last season by the Blazers (two)
In the playoffs last season, the Blazers were a common sleeper pick to unseat the Lakers for the Western Conference title. They didn’t even make it out of the first round.
Others aren’t as high on them this year compared to last. Some experts believe they’re ready to emerge as a legitimate contender in the NBA.
With this in mind, will the Blazers manage to win a playoffs series this season while dealing with a wide range of expectations?
My prediction: UNDER
1 Place of Finish lower than last season by the Hawks
The Hawks were swept from the second round last season as the No. 4 seed.
Flip Murray left via free agency, and the Hawks added Jamal Crawford and Joe Smith in the offseason. Other teams got better, but not that the Hawks got worse, in looking to unseat them for home court advantage in the first round.
Can the Hawks maintain home-court advantage in the first round again this season?
My prediction: UNDER
9.5 consecutive seasons with 50+ Wins by the Mavericks (nine currently)
Dallas added veteran Shawn Marion via trade in the offseason. The Mavericks are facing the end of Jason Kidd’s legitimate impact as a point guard in the NBA. But, Dirk Nowitzki appears primed for a standout season.
So can this veteran ball club withstand some aging impact players in order to put together a decade’s-worth of 50-plus win seasons?
25.5 Points per game by Carmelo Anthony of the Nuggets
The Nuggets lost Linas Kleiza and Dahntay Jones, but added Ty Lawson via the draft and Arron Afflalo via trade.
Carmelo Anthony showed flashes of a true scoring knack last season, including an 33-point quarter earlier in 2009, but managed to average only 22.8 points per game.
So is Anthony ready to assume a larger scoring load this season after seeing a decline in his points per game average the last two seasons?
My prediction: UNDER
2.5 Playoff Series Wins by the Magic
The Magic made an NBA Finals appearance last season for the first time since 1994-95.
The Magic replaced Hedo Turkoglu with Vince Carter and added some depth in the frontcourt with Ryan Anderson and Brandon Bass. The league runner-up last season made some notable roster adjustments, some of which concern people because the Magic negated the only advantage they had in the playoffs last season against the Cavaliers, sizable shooting forwards in Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis.
With the adjustments, can the Magic come through with another win in the Eastern Conference finals this season?
My prediction: UNDER
7.5 Playoff Wins by the Spurs
The Spurs added veterans Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess to an already-veteran team. However, the experience the Spurs now have will be their biggest asset heading into the playoffs.
Many believe the team just needs to qualify for the playoffs and then the table is set for yet another championship.
Will the Spurs be able to survive two playoffs series? Or will they show their collective age and bounce early this year?
50 Wins by the Celtics when Kevin Garnett starts
Garnett is coming off major knee surgery which kept him out of the 2009 postseason. The 12-time All-Star has seen a decline in games played dating back to the 2004-05 season, before which he played in at least 81 games for six consecutive seasons.
Some believe he’s on the decline and unable to be the player he once was. Others thinks he’ll return to form and help the Celtics be a legitimate contender in the East this season.
How impactful will the Big Ticket be this season in Boston’s bid to land the best record in the Eastern Conference?
125.5 Games Played combined by Shaquille O'Neal and Zydrunas Ilgauskas for the Cavaliers
The Cavaliers acquired O’Neal to combat Dwight Howard in a potential postseason matchup. Many are wondering whether O’Neal, 37, will survive the season and be a contributing factor for the Cavaliers on their title run. In the starting lineup O’Neal displaces Ilgauskas, 34, who missed 17 games last season and had foot injuries earlier in his career.
Can the Cavaliers’ aging big men survive the regular season free of injury and full of needed rest?
5.5 more Wins by the Lakers than the second-place Western Conference team
The Lakers seem to be as formidable as last season.
Plug in Ron Artest in the place of Trevor Ariza, and essentially the Lakers are the same team as a year ago. Andrew Bynum needs to stay healthy.
The Lakers won 65 games last season, 11 wins more than the next-best team, the Nuggets. But, the Spurs got better and appear to be the second-best in the West.
Will the second-place team close the gap on the Lakers enough to bring that margin down to five games?
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