East Carolina (-5.0) 28 MEMPHIS 23
The Memphis offense has picked up since Arkelon Hall was replaced as the starting quarterback and since RB Curtis Steele got healthy (376 yards in the last two games) and my math model favors East Carolina by just 1 point in this game.
However, the Pirates apply to a very good 56-12-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is based on their strong run defense (and Memphis' bad run defense).
It' probably best to pass this game with the math favoring one side and the technical analysis favoring the other.
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