Top NFL Impact Rookies: Ranking From 1 To 100

Sadly, for NFL fans, the draft does not even signify the midway point between the Super Bowl and the start of the next regular season. Two days packed with incessant speculation and unmatched optimism provide every football fan a fix.

And for fans of every team, hope springs for the next year, that maybe these few new players can make the difference. Then, we wait for four months until kickoff.

At WhatIfSports, it’s a little different. Draft day signifies the beginning of one of our busiest times of the year, as we work on our comprehensive, full-season preview.

For the preview, we project stats for every single player and team in the league by simulating each game on the schedule 61 times. That is relatively easy for veteran players, as most tend to play to a predictable performance trend as they age and take on different roles. Then it is just a matter of sticking with their expected statistical inputs and then simulating games against the actual upcoming schedule.

Rookies present the biggest challenge. To come up with statistical inputs for rookies, we run a very complex set of algorithms that factor collegiate performance, utilization throughout college, strength of collegiate competition, “measurables,” likely role, previous performance of a similar player in that role for this coaching staff, and previous performance of similar rookies.

This gives us both the player’s projected ratio stats, such as yards per carry, percentage of tackles made while on the field, and completion percentage, as well as his forecasted usage for the upcoming season. From there, we can compare all rookies based on who we think will make the biggest positive impact for his NFL team in his first year. The top 100 from this ranking—with highlights of the top ten—are listed below.

We have done pretty well with this approach. Leading into the 2007 season, not only did this methodology correctly rank first-round draft choices like Adrian Peterson, Joe Thomas, Patrick Willis, Reggie Nelson, LaRon Landry, and Dwayne Bowe among the top ten, it helped to point out some steals like Kolby Smith, Lorenzo Booker, Eric Weddle, Eric Wright, Brian Robison, and Mason Crosby.

Clearly, it is easier for some players at some positions to come in and make a positive impact in the first year. Typically, these positions include running back and linebacker, where the stats rack up with playing time. There has never been a season as evident of this as there should be in 2008.

Thirteen different rookie running-backs are projected to gain over 400 yards from scrimmage; while ten linebackers should notch 45 tackles or more. With this year’s crop, both quarterbacks and cornerbacks are on the opposite end of the spectrum of RBs and LBs. Most of the cornerbacks drafted are great athletes, but not NFL ready.

With quarterbacks, there is always a developmental curve that takes a few seasons. Plus, not as many are needed going into the year as usual. Matt Ryan will probably get some decent playing time for Atlanta, yet he is vastly overrated and may never blossom into an above average starter.

Joe Flacco (Baltimore) and Chad Henne (Miami) may play the latter third of the year, but not quite well enough to make the top ten here. Brian Brohm from Green Bay is blocked by another player who is yet to start an NFL game in Aaron Rodgers, who will likely get at least the season to prove his mettle.

By the overall rankings, Kansas City, Carolina, and Miami will get the most positive impact from their rookies in 2008. San Diego, Seattle, and Jacksonville had the least productive drafts.

Without further ado, here are the top 10, with commentary, followed by No. 100-11:

10) Kevin Smith, RB, Detroit
He has great vision, adequate size, and should thrive under Rod Marinelli’s dedication to the running game after Mike Martz’s departure to San Francisco. The interesting thing about the third-round pick out of UCF, who rushed for over 2,500 yards last season, is that his rookie season may be one of the best seasons he has in a brief career. After 905 carries in three seasons of college, and a couple workhorse years in the NFL, Smith may be staring at the same fate recently endured by Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson well before his 30th birthday.

You're currently logged into Facebook

Do you want to share your Bleacher Report activity on Facebook?