Sadly, for NFL fans, the draft does not even signify the midway point between the Super Bowl and the start of the next regular season. Two days packed with incessant speculation and unmatched optimism provide every football fan a fix.
And for fans of every team, hope springs for the next year, that maybe these few new players can make the difference. Then, we wait for four months until kickoff.
At WhatIfSports, it’s a little different. Draft day signifies the beginning of one of our busiest times of the year, as we work on our comprehensive, full-season preview.
For the preview, we project stats for every single player and team in the league by simulating each game on the schedule 61 times. That is relatively easy for veteran players, as most tend to play to a predictable performance trend as they age and take on different roles. Then it is just a matter of sticking with their expected statistical inputs and then simulating games against the actual upcoming schedule.
Rookies present the biggest challenge. To come up with statistical inputs for rookies, we run a very complex set of algorithms that factor collegiate performance, utilization throughout college, strength of collegiate competition, “measurables,” likely role, previous performance of a similar player in that role for this coaching staff, and previous performance of similar rookies.
This gives us both the player’s projected ratio stats, such as yards per carry, percentage of tackles made while on the field, and completion percentage, as well as his forecasted usage for the upcoming season. From there, we can compare all rookies based on who we think will make the biggest positive impact for his NFL team in his first year. The top 100 from this ranking—with highlights of the top ten—are listed below.
We have done pretty well with this approach. Leading into the 2007 season, not only did this methodology correctly rank first-round draft choices like Adrian Peterson, Joe Thomas, Patrick Willis, Reggie Nelson, LaRon Landry, and Dwayne Bowe among the top ten, it helped to point out some steals like Kolby Smith, Lorenzo Booker, Eric Weddle, Eric Wright, Brian Robison, and Mason Crosby.
Clearly, it is easier for some players at some positions to come in and make a positive impact in the first year. Typically, these positions include running back and linebacker, where the stats rack up with playing time. There has never been a season as evident of this as there should be in 2008.
Thirteen different rookie running-backs are projected to gain over 400 yards from scrimmage; while ten linebackers should notch 45 tackles or more. With this year’s crop, both quarterbacks and cornerbacks are on the opposite end of the spectrum of RBs and LBs. Most of the cornerbacks drafted are great athletes, but not NFL ready.
With quarterbacks, there is always a developmental curve that takes a few seasons. Plus, not as many are needed going into the year as usual. Matt Ryan will probably get some decent playing time for Atlanta, yet he is vastly overrated and may never blossom into an above average starter.
10 comments Last one added about 1 year ago — Leave a Comment
Jimbo about 1 year ago
I'm a sucker for these ranking articles, and it was great food for thought for us fantasy fanatics as well. Great read.
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Bart Upchurch about 1 year ago
Thank you for putting James Hardy in the top 10. I would have put him in the number 1 spot though. This was a great article and it's obvious you know your football.
Go Bills
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Andrew Butler about 1 year ago
I personally think Chris Long should be in the top 10, for a team that has an aging and horrible defensive line like the Rams, Long can make a major impact for their team.
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Michoel Botwinick about 1 year ago
What, No.49 DeSean Jackson not in the least top 100? You obviously expect him to be a bust. Well, here we go, doubting Jackson because of his size.
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Adam Rothlisberger about 1 year ago
I don't have a problem with Jackson's size..... but in terms of an actual receiver... that is the guys problem. His rookie year he wont make any impact on the offensive side of the ball... special teams is where he will probably make his only impact.. and that may be the only thing he does good for his whole career....
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Bill Dow about 1 year ago
You seem to be forgetting that the Seahawks drafted John Carlson in the second round, had him rated higher than Keller going into the draft, and will be the starter in their system in which a TE is needed.
And the Seahawks, although not having a "Sexy" draft, filled the holes that they needed to. The only thing better would have been a mid-round WR, but even then the Seahawks seem satisfied with their current guys.
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Nick Vandiver about 1 year ago
the only thing that confuses me is that you don't have martin rucker on here. he was a first team all-american, mackey award runner up, and lead the nation in catches by a tight end. kellen winslow jr has too many injury issues to be a long term player, so martin rucker will provide a great weapon for derek anderson along with braylon edwards and donte stallworth. great article though
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Michoel Botwinick about 1 year ago
Well, special teams isn't something to sneeze about.
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Adam Rothlisberger about 1 year ago
Which was my point... he is a bust....
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Michoel Botwinick about 1 year ago
We'll see.
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