Dr. Bob's Betting Advice For #12 OREGON (-10) @ WASHINGTON

Robert StollCorrespondent IOctober 24, 2009

EUGENE, OR - SEPTEMBER 26: Walter Thurmond III #6 of the Oregon Ducks returns a punt for a touchdown in the first quarter of the game against the California Bears at Autzen Stadium on September 26, 2009 in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images)

#12 Oregon (-10.0) 33 WASHINGTON 19

Over/Under Total: 53.0

12:30 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Oct-24

Jeremiah Masoli is back at quarterback for Oregon after missing the UCLA game due to injury and the Ducks will move the ball well against a bad Washington defense that's allowed 6.9 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average team.

Washington has a better than average offense (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 4.9 yppl), but Oregon's defense is among the very best in the nation - allowing just 3.9 yppl and 16 points per game to a schedule of teams that would average 5.8 yppl and 28.5 points against an average defensive team.

My math model gives Oregon a 58.6% chance of covering at -10, but the Ducks do apply to a negative 58-105-2 ATS situation that will keep me from playing them here as a Best Bet.

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