Virginia Football: Analysis of the 2008 Recruiting Class

For a given player, star ratings don’t determine their future success, but in aggregate getting more higher ranked players will translate to a more talented team, everything else being equal.  The higher ranked players are the ones that more top colleges are recruiting, so those players must have something that many coaches think has historically led to talented college players.  Here’s a great article about whether the rankings are accurate:

http://www.postandcourier.com/news/2008/feb/03/grading_gradersranking_football_recruits29508/

Most of the article is giving examples of when the ratings were inaccurate.  However, the stat given near the end seems to prove that higher rated players are more likely to be top college players.  So the rankings certainly miss on plenty of players, but taken as a whole they end up being a good indicator of the level of talent a program is bringing in. 

Here’s the quote from the article:

“Extensive research into SEC and ACC recruiting history does indicate that upper-tier prospects have a better chance of succeeding. The Post and Courier examined every prospect signed from 2002 to 2005 in both leagues, calculating how many have gone on to make first- or second-team all-conference.  In the ACC, 19.2 percent of four- and five-stars (46 of 239) have made one of those teams, according to Rivals' ratings. For three stars and lower, the percentage dips to 8.1 (64 of 786).  There's a similar gap in the SEC, where 17.3 percent of four- and five-star players signed (52 of 300) have made first- or second-team all-conference, according to Scout's ratings. For the lower-tier players, the percentage is 6.6 percent (57 of 859).”

I am not overly disappointed in UVA’s class given the fact that there is no player in particular that I’m unhappy about—all of them have a lot of potential, particularly unsung guys like Tory Allen who haven’t played much football before (like Brandon Albert).  But here are a few things that concern me:

1.  I think we should take a bigger class.  It seems like we never approach the 85 scholarship limit, such that we have extras to award non-contributing walk-ons.  This is because we always experience significant attrition, which it seems like the coaches don’t take into account when they aim for only 18 players. 

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