(Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)

The folks in Vegas figure Florida to be a 22.5-point favorite over Mississippi State. I can’t really argue with that—this is the No. 1 team (never mind the AP) and defending BCS champ—but I get a feeling this’ll be a tighter game than many expect.

The Gators are banged up on the defensive line, and the way MSU’s offensive line has been blocking, that could spell a big day for the Bulldogs’ running game, especially Anthony Dixon (696 yards, seven touchdowns). Controlling the line of scrimmage would extend possessions, and thus extend the game, so to speak.

The biggest concern for State (3-4, 1-2), from my perspective, is pass defense. We’ve seen some good things this year, but we’ve seen some bad things, too. And Tim Tebow is no ordinary quarterback. He doesn’t throw a lot, but he leads the SEC in pass efficiency, and his receivers could give MSU’s young defensive backs fits.

So, all the more reason to establish the ground game and keep Tebow off the field. I truly believe this game can remain close well into the second half. Everyone keeps saying that the fact that Dan Mullen is facing his mentor, Urban Meyer , won’t count for anything. I’m not so sure.

I foresee another hard-fought loss for the Bulldogs.

My prediction: Florida 28, MSU 13.

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