Outliers: Eight Teams Just Outside The BCS Top 10 That Still Have A Shot

The BCS rankings released on Sunday surprised many people for how the top five teams were ranked. Why is Florida still #1 despite their struggles? Whither Alabama? Is Boise State a legit #4?

What this conversation lacks is any discussion of those teams just outside the BCS top 10 that still have a crack at making the big game.

They may be as low as #23 or as high as #11, but each of them has a chance at seriously rocking S.S. BCS if the good teams lose, everybody else wins, and the voters wise up a little bit.

Here's a look at eight teams in no particular order that are sitting just outside the top 10 and still might have a shot at the title.

#22 Arizona Wildcats

For Arizona to crack into the BCS, they'll have to buckle down.

They are 2-1 in PAC-10 play, 4-2 overall with a loss to Iowa on the road and the fluky loss to Washington.

That loss to Iowa at Kinnick Stadium suddenly looks a lot better, and their #22 ranking in the BCS is testament to their tenacious efforts so far.

Redshirt sophomore Nick Foles threw for 415 yards and three touchdowns against no interceptions to lead the Wildcats on two fourth quarter scoring drives in the comeback win over Stanford this past weekend.

Foles, who originally committed to Michigan State before transferring, was recognized as conference player of the week this week in spite of Matt Barkley's tremendous game against the Irish.

The Wildcats visit Cal on November 14th, host Oregon the next week, and finish the season with away games at Arizona State and USC. Wins in those games would be tremendous, and if certain votes break the right way, the BCS could place them in national contention, especially if USC and Oregon continue to play for the PAC-10 title.

If Foles can continue putting up huge numbers, expect to hear more about Mike Stoops' Wildcats.

#20 Pittsburgh Panthers

Pittsburgh has already gotten their annual unforeseeable loss out of the way, dropping a home game against the NC State Wolf Pack two weeks ago.

Pitt's got a tough road to hoe to contend for the BCS, with home games against the reeling South Florida Bulls this week, and Notre Dame looking to avenge last year's triple overtime loss in a few weeks.

They also go on the road to West Virginia, another fringe BCS team I'll get to in a moment.

They've proven they can travel well, rush the ball (true freshman Dion Lewis leads the FBS in rushing yards, and has scored nine touchdowns; Pitt leads the conference in rushing totals overall), and throw. They're a little suspect on defense, so that may end up hurting them in games where the running game can't find traction.

They finish the season at home against Cincinnati, which may shape up to be the de facto Big East Conference championship game. Winning out and heading into that game as an underdog would give the Panthers a tremendous amount of momentum.

And if Cincinnati is as highly regarded then as they are now, a W would look very appetizing to BCS voters.

#12 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

When last we saw Georgia Tech, they were ending Virginia Tech's chances at the national championship, and boosting their own.

The Yellow Jackets' only loss is to the Miami Hurricanes on the road. They can boast three pretty solid out of conference victories if they win out. They've already beaten Dan Mullen's Mississippi State Bulldogs, and if they can best the Vanderbilt Commodores and the Georgia Bulldogs in the rivalry game at the end of the year, that will be two SEC middle-tier teams they've had for breakfast.

Their upset of Virginia Tech boosted them to #12 overall (and #10 to the computers, which factor in strength of schedule), which is just outside the range of true BCS contention.

The best thing going for the YJ's is the nature of the triple option. Paul Johnson has managed to out-execute every team except Miami.

Preparing for it requires teams to adjust their defenses accordingly. But when they lapse into old, pro-style ways, there's sure to be a crackback block they're forgetting, and that's how GT has broken big plays so far.

The good news is, its all cake and ice cream from here. They face the Virginia Commodores this week - the same Virginia Commodores who lost to William and Mary, hopefully - and their toughest remaining games are probably at Vanderbilt, at Duke (Duke passes now!), and the home game against Georgia, a back and forth unit that will probably be looking to avenge last year's loss in Athens.

The bad news is winning out won't quite do it. GT needs another Miami loss, or they won't represent the ACC in the conference championship because they lost the head-to-head game.

If Miami loses, expect the Yellow Jackets to be in the BCS hunt if they can pull off a big win in the ACC Conference Championship.

#24 South Carolina Gamecocks

South Carolina is getting just the right amount of attention at #23 in the BCS.

Their win against Ole Miss is of ever-dwindling validity, and though they kept it close against Alabama, they also showed how little offensive firepower they have. Stephen Garcia is not a BCS-level quarterback.

But man, that defense is good...BCS good. And their recruiting has steadily improved over the last four years. So I want to include South Carolina in the outlier conversation, even if they're a year away.

Their loss to Alabama was close enough to warrant respect, and they still have time to post some strong wins on the road against Tennessee and the retooled Arkansas Razorbacks.

Or they can just lie low until the Florida game, and destroy the myth of Gator dominance in the SEC East just in time for the BCS vote.

It's the SEC. Whoever is winning at the end of the year is bound to get some love.

If Spurrier can recruit himself a great quarterback, we could see more of the Gamecocks this year or next.

#11 Oregon Ducks

After that dreadful opening game against Boise State, Oregon has played themselves back into national contention with solid wins over Cal at home and UCLA on the road.

Their non-conference win over Purdue improved ever so slightly with the Boliers win over Ohio State, and their win over Utah is also improving as Utah continues to win in MWC play.

Like Arizona, they can play themselves into national attention by beating USC in Autzen Stadium on Halloween, but I would look out for this weekend's trip to Washington. The Ducks haven't traveled very well, and we now know Washington is no easy W anymore.

If the Ducks survive the PAC-10 schedule, they might be a dark horse contender for a late BCS title game flourish, especially if the Arizona Wildcats continues to play well.

The road game in Tucson and the no-gimme Civil War against the Orefon State Beavers will ultimately decide the Ducks' fate if they can play themselves into PAC-10 title contention.

This would be almost inconceivable at the start of the year, but that's why we play the game.

#16 BYU Cougars

It's a longshot, but the BYU Cougars have a chance at overcoming their loss to the Seminoles if they can get some strong wins in MWC play.

The only good thing about their loss to Florida State was that it was early in the season. The college football memory is short, and if BYU can hand TCU their first loss this weekend in Provo, expect their BCS stock to rise.

Beating TCU will bring them a step closer to the top ten, but it will take an equally strong season from Utah, whom BYU plays last, as well as a Florida State rebound and maybe a few outstanding scoring efforts against the lesser MWC squads for voters to allow BYU back into the title hunt.

#23 West Virginia Mountaineers

Sitting at #22 in the BCS, the West Virginia Mountaineers have only one loss to date. That was to the Auburn Tigers on the road. Unfortunately, that loss looked a lot better before the Tigers scored only 14 points and lost to Kentucky at home last week.

Winning on the road in South Florida and pulling off three straight W's over the last three teams on their schedule would go a long way towards reaffirming the Mountaineers' BCS draft stock.

Cincinnati and Pittsburgh back-to-back will be daunting, and the Mountaineers haven't shown they travel well. Their loss to Colorado last year in Boulder was epicly bad, and they struggled putting the Buffaloes away again in this year's game in Morgantown.

The road game at Cincinnati, where they've won the last few years, will decide for what stakes they play against Pittsburgh the following week at home. This will be Bill Stewart's chance to show his teams can continue to be competitive in the Big East.

The Mountaineers have to hope, first and foremost, that Jarrett Brown comes back in time to play the Bulls this weekend.

Then they have to hope Cincy and Pitt win out prior to their head-to-head games and keep the stakes high (and, just throwing this out, that Auburn plays itself back into SEC contention, so that the 41-30 win doesn't look so glaring.

And God help them if they lose to Rutgers at home in the last game of the year. Although in the Big East, anything's possible.

#15 Oklahoma State Cowboys

No one in the country is particularly enamored with the Texas Longhorns right now. They're #3 in the BCS but #6 to the computers, and that spells cognitive dissonance.

The best chance the Big 12 has at redeeming itself is if Oklahoma State, currently 5-1, with the early loss to Houston way in the past, can best the Longhorns in the big game in Stillwater on Halloween.

The Cowboys are 2-0 in the Big 12 with a close win over Texas A&M at College Station, and a win over a busted Missouri unit this past Saturday.

Whether or not Dez Bryant retakes the field, the Cowboys are going to find ways to score points with Zac Robinson (who could also get some late Heisman attention), running back Keith Toston, and Hubert Anyiam, who has filled in admirably for Bryant.

It won't be easy for Okie State, even if they get the best of Texas. They will need to watch out for Mike Leach's Red Raiders on Nov. 14th (the Houston Cougars currently run a spinoff of Leach's Airraid system, and the Cougars upset Okie State earlier this year).

They also get the Oklahoma Sooners on the road at the end of the year; if Bradford somehow makes it back, that game will be no walk in the park.

But if they survive, Oklahoma State will be battle tested, and could reclaim their lofty preseason positions en route to a late run at the BCS title game.

If You Liked This Slideshow...

Hey! If you liked this slideshow, check out my evaluation of ten possible matchups and see if we have anything to look forward to!