Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistDecember 12, 2017

CARSON, CA - DECEMBER 10:  Quarterback Philip Rivers #17 of the Los Angeles Chargers rolls out with the ball in the first quarter against the Washington Redskins on December 10, 2017 at StubHub Center in Carson, California.  (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

The Kansas City Chiefs own seven wins in a row in the rivalry with the San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers, going 5-2 against the spread in the process. In a huge game in the AFC West, Kansas City and Los Angeles get it on Saturday night at Arrowhead Stadium.

NFL point spread: The Chiefs opened as one-point favorites; the total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 26.2-20.2 Chargers (NFL picks on every game).

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

      

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Chargers just bumped their winning streak to four in a row last week with a 30-13 victory over Washington. Los Angeles jumped out to a 13-0 first-quarter lead, let the Redskins get within 13-6 then scored the next 17 points of the game, on its way toward an easy cover of a six-point spread.

On the day, the Chargers outgained Washington 488-201, made 24 first downs, compared to nine for the Redskins, won the ground battle 174-65 and ground out a 35-25 time of possession advantage.

So Los Angeles has now outgained each of its last four opponents, three of them by 130 yards and more. The Chargers are also 7-2 both SU and ATS over their last nine games.

At 7-6 overall, Los Angeles is tied for the lead in the AFC West with the Chiefs but does not own the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Chargers also trail 7-6 Buffalo by a tiebreaker in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot. So this game is crucial for Los Angeles.

    

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs just snapped a four-game losing streak with a 26-15 victory over Oakland. Kansas City hit the scoreboard on its first four possessions of the game to lead 16-0 at the half, and it pushed that to 26-0 in the fourth quarter before allowing the Raiders two meaningless scores.

On the afternoon, the Chiefs outgained Oakland 408-268, outrushed the Raiders 165-70 and won time of possession by a 37-23 split.

At 7-6 Kansas City leads the AFC West by a tiebreaker over the Chargers. But while the Chiefs would be the No. 4 seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today, a loss this week would probably drop them out of the top six.

    

Smart pick

Kansas City beat Los Angeles back in September 24-10, but these teams have gone in different directions since then. Also, the Chargers don't fear playing on the road, going 3-3 SU and 4-1-1 ATS on the hotel circuit this season. The smart money here likes Los Angeles.

   

NFL betting trends

The Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against the Chiefs.

The total has gone under in five of the Chargers' last seven games against the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games on a Saturday.

    

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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