MWC Championship Game: Fresno State vs. Boise State Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 29, 2017

SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 16:  Quarterback Marcus McMaryion #6 of the Fresno State Bulldogs passes against the Washington Huskies at Husky Stadium on September 16, 2017 in Seattle, Washington.  (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)
Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

As they do with most of their conference rivals, the Boise State Broncos own the upper hand in the recent series with the Fresno State Bulldogs, winning nine of the last 11 meetings straight up.

But Fresno State has taken two of the last four meetings and covered the last three spreads. In a rematch of a game played just last week, the Bulldogs battle the Broncos for the Mountain West Conference championship Saturday evening in Boise.

      

College football point spread: The Broncos opened as 10-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 31.8-25.6 Broncos (College football picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

      

Why the Fresno State Bulldogs can cover the spread

One season after going 1-11 and winless in conference play, the Bulldogs are back in the MWC championship game, following their 28-17 upset of Boise State last week. Fresno State drove the opening possession of the game 71 yards for a touchdown and never trailed from there. Eventually the Bulldogs secured the victory with an 81-yard bomb-catch-run-pylon dive from Marcus McMaryion to KeeSean Johnson midway through the fourth quarter and a sack/safety with a minute to go.

On the day, the Bulldogs racked up 431 yards of offense, as McMaryion threw for 332 and two touchdowns. They also went nine-for-16 on third-down conversions. Fresno State has now outgained seven of its last nine opponents and outrushed eight of its last 10 foes.

The Bulldogs are also 9-2-1 ATS this season, 5-0-1 ATS on the road. Fresno State might play this game with an edge, after being denied home field despite the head-to-head victory over Boise State.

     

Why the Boise State Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos carried a seven-game winning streak into last week before falling victim to a hot Bulldogs team. That game was tied at 7-7 until just before halftime, when Fresno State kicked a field goal, and Boise State only trailed 19-17 after scoring a touchdown with nine minutes to go. But the Broncos then gave up that long Bulldogs touchdown pass and couldn't recover.

Boise State put up 401 yards of offense of its own, but four incursions into Fresno State territory came up totally empty.

The Broncos have outrushed six of their last eight opponents. They're also 6-2 ATS over that span.

     

Smart pick

The oddsmakers expect a reversal of fortune for these teams this week, but Fresno State stacks up well against Boise State on the stat sheet and in performances against common foes. Smart money here sticks with the Bulldogs.

     

College football betting trends

Fresno State is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games against Boise State.

Boise State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games in Week 14.

The total has gone under in Boise State's last three games after losing as a favorite.

      

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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