SEC Championship Game: Georgia vs. Auburn Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 27, 2017

AUBURN, AL - NOVEMBER 25:  Head coach Gus Malzahn of the Auburn Tigers  celebrates after the victory over the Alabama Crimson Tide at Jordan Hare Stadium on November 25, 2017 in Auburn, Alabama.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

The Georgia Bulldogs owned the edge in the recent series with the Auburn Tigers, winning nine of 11 meetings outright, going 5-1 against the spread over the previous six. But Auburn kicked Georgia 40-17 just a few weeks ago. Now the teams meet for a rematch, with the SEC title and probably a berth in the College Football Playoff at stake, Saturday night in Atlanta.

      

College football point spread: The Tigers opened as 1.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 37.4-35.5 Tigers (College football picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

      

Why the Georgia Bulldogs can cover the spread

The Bulldogs are 2-0 both SU and ATS since that loss to Auburn three weeks ago, following their 38-7 victory/cover over rival Georgia Tech last week. Georgia scored the first 14 points of the game, let the Yellow Jackets get within 14-7, then scored the final 24 points, on its way toward cashing in as an 11-point favorite.

On the day, the Bulldogs outgained Georgia Tech 471-226 and outrushed the ground-oriented Yellow Jackets 247-188. So Georgia has now outgained and outrushed every opponent this season except one: Auburn.

Two weeks ago, the Bulldogs bit Kentucky 42-13, covering as 23-point chalk.

At 11-1 overall, a victory Saturday would basically guarantee the Bulldogs a spot in the CFP.

      

Why the Auburn Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS over their last five games, after beating Alabama in the Iron Bowl last week 26-14. Auburn drew first blood with a touchdown late in the first quarter, fell down to the Crimson Tide 14-10 early in the third but scored the last 16 points of the game for the outright victory as five-point dogs.

On the day, the Tigers outgained Alabama 408-377, went nine-for-18 on third-down conversions and won time of possession by a 36-24 margin. So Auburn has now outgained nine of its last 10 opponents, eight of them by at least 140 yards.

At 10-2 overall and with wins over Georgia and Alabama, the Tigers would almost assuredly receive an invitation to the CFP with another victory over the Bulldogs.

     

Smart pick

Auburn is coming off a huge emotional victory last week over Alabama but could be ripe for a letdown. Georgia, meanwhile, is probably itching for the chance to show it's better than the team that lost to the Tigers by three touchdowns three weeks ago. Smart money here bets the Bulldogs.

      

College football betting trends

Georgia is 3-1 ATS in its last four games against Auburn.

The total has gone under in three of Georgia's last four games against Auburn.

Auburn is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games against its conference.

      

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.