Week 11 NFL Picks: Vegas Betting Odds, Over/Under Spreads and Line Projections

Chris RolingFeatured ColumnistNovember 14, 2017

ORCHARD PARK, NY - NOVEMBER 12:  Drew Brees #9 of the New Orleans Saints signals to his team during the first quarter against the Buffalo Bills on November 12, 2017 at New Era Field in Orchard Park, New York.  (Photo by Brett Carlsen/Getty Images)
Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

The clouds seem to clear over the NFL schedule as it turns the page to Week 11. 

After a few odd weeks, Week 11 looks like it can provide some of the best action of the season. Not only are there high-profile divisional battles between teams like the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys, games like New England vs. Oakland and Atlanta vs. Seattle provide plenty of intrigue. 

From a picks and odds standpoint, it seems this week provides a breather as well. A few big spreads dot the schedule and most of them don't feel like major risks. For those with a keen eye, a few sure to change as the week progresses offer great value. 

Here is a review of the entire slate and a few lines to capitalize on in the early goings of this week. 

       

NFL Week 11 Schedule, Odds

Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-7) | O/U 44

Arizona (-1.5) at Houston | O/U

Baltimore (-2) at Green Bay | O/U 38

Detroit (-3) at Chicago | O/U 42

Jacksonville (-7.5) at Cleveland | O/U 37.5

Kansas City (-11) at N.Y. Giants | O/U 44.5

L.A. Rams at Minnesota (-2) | O/U 46.5

Tampa Bay at Miami (-3) | O/U

Washington at New Orleans (-7.5) | O/U 51

Buffalo at L.A. Chargers (-4) | O/U 43.5

Cincinnati at Denver (-2.5) | O/U 39.5

New England (-7) at Oakland | O/U 52

Philadelphia (-3.5) at Dallas | O/U 48

Atlanta at Seattle (-3) | O/U 45

           

Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-7)

On a short week, should bettors trust the Tennessee Titans or the Pittsburgh Steelers? 

It's an easy question, really, especially with the Steelers at home on Thursday Night Football. Detractors will point out the Steelers struggled in Week 10 on the road, escaping with only a 20-17 victory against the Indianapolis Colts. 

But a trap game on the road is just that and it doesn't change the fact the Steelers have otherwise looked like one of the best teams in the league while tallying four consecutive wins, including notables over Kansas City and Detroit. 

Tennessee, on the other hand, has looked shaky at best over a four-game tear of its own, beating bad Indianapolis and Cleveland teams while escaping both the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals by no more than four points apiece. 

The Titans simply aren't getting enough from Marcus Mariota under center this year to inspire confidence. He fought through an injury, yet has all of seven touchdowns against six interceptions and only three to two, respectively, over his past two games. 

In what should be more of an offensive-minded affair, bettors can expect the Steelers to spread out the Titans and pace up and down the field. Not only is Le'Veon Bell still in the backfield, the Titans don't have the personnel to match Antonio Brown (60 catches, 882 yards, three touchdowns) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (29, 521, five) for a full four frames as the Steelers look to prove their slump out of a bye against the Colts isn't a regular thing. 

Prediction: Steelers 28, Titans 20

          

Jacksonville (-7.5) at Cleveland

The Jacksonville Jaguars were an easy pick a week ago, though a 20-17 overtime win against the Los Angeles Chargers hurt bettors who decided to roll over the spread. 

Those who got hurt on the spread and otherwise shouldn't hesitate in Week 11 with the Jaguars on the road against the Cleveland Browns, though. 

After all, this is the winless Browns, a team that has lost its last two games by 33-16 and 38-24 margins. The coaching staff keeps calling audibles under center, though it looks like it will be rookie DeShone Kizer (four touchdowns, 12 interceptions) going against a Jaguars defense sitting on 35 sacks. 

And while the Blake Bortles-led offense hasn't been perfect, an elite defense keeps creating opportunities like this: 

Even on the road, the turnover-happy Jaguars shouldn't have a problem as it brings to Cleveland an average of 165.1 passing yards and 14.9 points per game surrendered. 

The Browns haven't shown an ability to stop opposing offenses or put up enough points to win, hence the 24 in a Week 10 loss being the highest output since Week 3 and only the second time the team has scored north of 20 points in a game all year. 

Prediction: Jaguars 24, Browns 17

          

Washington at New Orleans (-7.5)

Another big spread, another easy call. 

Besides an odd rally to win a game in Seattle in Week 9, the Washington Redskins have consistently looked like one of the worst teams in the league dating back to Week 4, with losses by scores of 29-20, 34-24, 33-19 and 38-30. 

Granted, the schedule has been tough. But beating the lowly San Francisco 49ers by only two points at home isn't inspiring confidence. Kirk Cousins (14 touchdowns, five picks) isn't getting help from his running game (3.8 yards per carry) and he has a running back leading the team in receiving, which speaks to the depths of the problems there. 

The New Orleans Saints aren't having any problems at all. 

And it all starts with the running game, as everyone predicted. 

"We're actually committing to it, as a coaching staff; everybody's buying into it as players," Saints running back Mark Ingram said, according to ESPN.com's Mike Triplett. "The big boys up front did a great job executing, and the coaches did a great job of calling the runs."

For those counting, Ingram is now up to 672 yards and seven touchdowns on a 4.7 per-carry average. Rookie Alvin Kamara has been the perfect complement, gaining 417 and four TDs on a 6.5 average. The effectiveness just carried the Saints to a 47-10 road whipping of the Buffalo Bills while Drew Brees didn't throw a touchdown. 

In fact, the Saints have now rattled off seven wins in a row after dropping the first two games of the season. Those seven wins? They've come by an impressive margin of 229-100. The running game means Cousins and the Redskins won't be able to stay on the field long enough in a hostile environment to keep pace. 

Prediction: Saints 30, Redskins 17

          

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds according to OddsShark.